Who will qualify from semi 1?

[John1]

Okay now you just gave me hope I'm sure the Greek performance will be good... geez, I'm bringing all sort of excuses to not seeing Greece failing.

Just a quick thought - anyone else thinks that if the Czech Republic/Croatia qualify, they will be announced last?!

San Marino was announced at the middle of the results in 2014, then that's not certain at all...

 

[Terence]

San Marino was announced at the middle of the results in 2014, then that's not certain at all...

But they did announce Israel/Latvia last in 2015, and the Netherlands in 2013, Austria in 2014...

 

[John1]

But they did announce Israel/Latvia last in 2015, and the Netherlands in 2013, Austria in 2014...

Latvia wasn't announced last in 2015.... :/

 

[Terence]

Latvia wasn't announced last in 2015.... :/

Second last - that's why I said Latvia/Israel

 

[escfreak]

 

[JamieBrown]

Just like [MENTION=10896]GermanBango[/MENTION] I calculated all the results based on the current odds, the voting patterns of the last 10 years and the Poll from ESCnation.com. I will not post the detailed results, only the ranking. Here's the semi one:

1.
2.
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4.
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6.
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9.
10.

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11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

 

[lowyby]

Montenegro was the first one annouced in 2014, when they qualified for the first time, so nothing is sure but they mostly get one of the most qualifiers as the last one, just as Belgium in 2016

 

[Gordon_Shumway]

If I could freely decide which songs from semi 1 will qualify, it would be these 10 (sorted according to my personal taste):
01) Austria
02) Croatia safe qualifier
03) Czech Republic
04) Armenia
05) Netherlands uncertain
06) Hungary safe qualifier
07) Cyprus uncertain
08) Malta
09) Azerbaijan
10) Iceland


This is only a wishlist, and I am aware that at least two songs (maybe Netherlands, Cyprus) have (unfortunately) to be replaced by...
Russia safe qualifier
Estonia safe qualifier


Unsure about... (not completely without chances):
Finland
Moldova
Bosnia


Those will quite certainly not qualify:
Greece
San Marino
Montenegro


Any kind of feedback and criticism is very welcome!

 

[GermanBango]

If I could freely decide which songs from semi 1 will qualify, it would be these 10 (sorted according to my personal taste):
01) Austria
02) Croatia safe qualifier
03) Czech Republic
04) Armenia
05) Netherlands uncertain
06) Hungary safe qualifier
07) Cyprus uncertain
08) Malta
09) Azerbaijan
10) Iceland


This is only a wishlist, and I am aware that at least two songs (maybe Netherlands, Cyprus) have (unfortunately) to be replaced by...
Russia safe qualifier
Estonia safe qualifier


Unsure about... (not completely without chances):
Finland
Moldova
Bosnia


Those will quite certainly not qualify:
Greece
San Marino
Montenegro


Any kind of feedback and criticism is very welcome!

I agree with almost everything here.
Only a few points:
- I would add to the "unsure"-group ... I mean, it's Greece. The song is pretty bad but they will end up in the Top 8 with the Televoters I suppose. (Hello Diaspora)
- to the "no chance"-group
- and I just can't see Austria making it (The Televoters may fall for it and put it somewhere between 8th-10th place but what about the juries? I'd say 12th if at all. That being said I guess and will replace and

 

[Gordon_Shumway]

[MENTION=10896]GermanBango[/MENTION]
Big thanks, this is just the kind of feedback I had hoped for. Some thoughts from me:

- Greece: Believe it or not, deep in my heart I like this entry, especially the change from the chorus to those "rap elements". But all the reviews and comments were so bad that I "gave it up". But I wouldn't mind if it surprisingly qualified.

- Finland: Agreed, was between "unsure" and "chanceless" almost all the time for me.

- Austria: As you can imagine from my signature and my other postings, it would spoil my whole "2016 ESC joy" if lovely Zoe wouldn't make it to the final. 1 But you are right, she is in no way safe. Maybe I should light some more candles in churches, send some prayers...

Once more: Thanks for your feedback!
Maybe you want to write some comments on my semi2 prediction as well?

 

[GermanBango]

[MENTION=10896]GermanBango[/MENTION]
Big thanks, this is just the kind of feedback I had hoped for. Some thoughts from me:

- Greece: Believe it or not, deep in my heart I like this entry, especially the change from the chorus to those "rap elements". But all the reviews and comments were so bad that I "gave it up". But I wouldn't mind if it surprisingly qualified.

- Finland: Agreed, was between "unsure" and "chanceless" almost all the time for me.

- Austria: As you can imagine from my signature and my other postings, it would spoil my whole "2016 ESC joy" if lovely Zoe wouldn't make it to the final. 1 But you are right, she is in no way safe. Maybe I should light some more candles in churches, send some prayers...

Once more: Thanks for your feedback!
Maybe you want to write some comments on my semi2 prediction as well?

About Greece: I wouldn't be surprised if they really qualify in the end - I would be pretty pissed because they are at least 16 better Songs in this Semi imho.
About Finland: It's a song I actually quite like but who should vote for this? Sweden and Estonia, sure but who else?
About Austria: I'm not a fan of the song but this has nothing to do with my prediction - Austria is one of those countries without natural "friends" when it comes to the ESC. The big problem is that Zoe has to compete in Semi 1 (which is waaaaaaaaaay stronger) - In Semi 2 she would be an "almost sure qualifier".
I guess rehearsals gonna give us a hint about what may happen.

 

[ag89]

I know many here adore Czech and Estonian entry, but I think both will fail to qualify.

Pretty good songs, both. But I just don't see them stand out among all other songs. This semi final is crazy, right now I see only Russia as a safe qualifier.

:?

 

[VikingTiger]

Just like @GermanBango I calculated all the results based on the current odds, the voting patterns of the last 10 years and the Poll from ESCnation.com. I will not post the detailed results, only the ranking. Here's the semi one:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Spot on! Although I didnt rank the countries - and only my feelings and thoughts is behind - but I think these are the 10 that will qualify from semi 1. I would personally love to see Iceland qualify - but I dont think so. No one to vote for Greta here I am afraid...

 

[JamieBrown]

Spot on! Although I didnt rank the countries - and only my feelings and thoughts is behind - but I think these are the 10 that will qualify from semi 1. I would personally love to see Iceland qualify - but I dont think so. No one to vote for Greta here I am afraid...

Mh. Not sure if this will become reality. I think we're always underrating Greece and Bosnia. They have a lot that sounds typical for their countries to me, so that's something people from there and similar countries should vote for. Also I think Armenia's too high. In my final's predicition it was close to Top 10, but I'm even not sure if it qualifies. Yes, following my logic it also has such ethnic vibes, but then again it might leave people quite irritated, for not having a typical and easy song structure. Imo it rarely works in Eurovision, exceptions can be made of course.

Iceland can always qualify, but the struggles were big last time when Greta entered the stage and this time there are more contenders for a finals place, but she's not to be ruled out. From my remaining qualifiers Austria, Czech Republic and The Netherlands are more or less borderlining qualifiers imo. I still think Douwe Bob will nail it, but about the other two I'm rather uncertain.

All other countries should be sure to qualify or to fail.

 

[Terence]

Just before rehearsals start, I predict the following:

01. (Sweeping the televote. Juries will love it too)
02. (Same. Turkish diaspora will help)
03. (This could go anyway. I think juries will push this forward)
04. (When they get a good performer, they do well)
05. (dark horse)
06. (They always get strong televote support)
07. (Juries support)
08.
09. (They will squeeze through)
10.
_________
11. (Televote will make or break this)
12.
13.
14. (Could get support from Romanian block)
15. (No chance)
16.
17. (I have a feeling this won't finish last)
18. (Really think this will struggle)

Toughest semifinal since 2010 S2

 

[Komet Blu]

>
>Juries will love it too

cackling.

 

[Terence]

>
>Juries will love it too

cackling.

Oh come on... they rated 'Heroes' very highly last year (yeah it's Sweden I know)... above Italy - why won't they support this?

 

[DanielLuis]

Oh come on... they rated 'Heroes' very highly last year (yeah it's Sweden I know)... above Italy - why won't they support this?

The songs are so different. I'm no fan of "Heroes", but at least it was modern. Russia this year sounds like it belongs too the 2006 Eurovision.

 

[Terence]

so you think juries will trash Russia just because it's old fashioned? I beg to differ.

 

[FoxOfShadows]

so you think juries will trash Russia just because it's old fashioned? I beg to differ.

It's not that they'll trash Russia, more like they'll prefer other, more modern entries. Look at Latvia, Sweden, Belgium last year. Very modern entries that did well with the juries. On the other hand Italy, Poland and France who came with more old fashioned were marked much lower. Russia this year is defnitely a little dated and I think will lose marks to Hungary, The Netherlands,Azerbaijan and Estonia