Who will qualify from semi 1?

[Luki]

After hearing Malta I'm pretty sure Croatia will be out... this semi is just too strong.

 

[Chorizo]

I think are sure qualifiers.

I'm not sure about .

I have severe doubts about .


Possible borderline qualifiers are .

I think are definitely out.

 

[Kaz]

I don't think we can count out yet. There aren't really any songs in this semi of a similar style, other than maybe Russia, but they're guaranteed to pass anyway. If Sandhja just improves her live vocals and they aren't given a terrible draw, they still have a shot of qualification IMO.

 

[VikingTiger]

Sure qualifiers: . Russia goes without saying. Azerbaijan/Armenia as well. Cyprus for standing out, and I expect a great live performance. Croatia from being different from the rest; and they do have some support in this semi. NL: quality singer, surely different from the rest - will be loved by juries.

Possible qualifiers: B&H with some support. Austria - very memorable.

SOOO difficult. A lot will be decided by the live vocals and the stage presentation. And I also think having a song that is a bit different from the rest will be important: Like Croatia.

 

[GermanBango]

Soo I did my calculation in the same way as last year (Predicted 9/10 correct in both Semi's with this method)
It's based on Fan-Polls and Odds (~40%) as well as voting patterns of the last 25 Years (~50%) and the qualification-rate of each country (10%) ... took quite some time but I just love this little playthings - these are the results:

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11.
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17.
18.

That would mean that all 100%-qualifiers except would qualify once more.
would qualify for the first time ever and for the first time since 2009!

 

[JamieBrown]

Soo I did my calculation in the same way as last year (Predicted 9/10 correct in both Semi's with this method)
It's based on Fan-Polls and Odds (~40%) as well as voting patterns of the last 25 Years (~50%) and the qualification-rate of each country (10%) ... took quite some time but I just love this little playthings - these are the results:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

That would mean that all 100%-qualifiers except would qualify once more.
would qualify for the first time ever and for the first time since 2008!

I'm about doing the same and already have everything ready, just need to fix the values from the odds when all songs are out. And I only looked at the final voting patterns of the last 10 years, means countries they always qualify are in advance over countries they rarely/never. Not the best way, but I also thought also waiting for the fanpolls on escnation to take them as "Jury results" or so

Anyway, in my latest calculation, Croatia failed to qualify by one point and Czech Republic is hopeless, of course. It's not the best calculation and Russia and Sweden are getting almost all the but at least it's fun

EDIT: I have to admit, that my results are better I would riot if Estonia and The Netherlands would fail.

 

[GermanBango]

I'm about doing the same and already have everything ready, just need to fix the values from the odds when all songs are out. And I only looked at the final voting patterns of the last 10 years, means countries they always qualify are in advance over countries they rarely/never. Not the best way, but I also thought also waiting for the fanpolls on escnation to take them as "Jury results" or so

Anyway, in my latest calculation, Croatia failed to qualify by one point and Czech Republic is hopeless, of course. It's not the best calculation and Russia and Sweden are getting almost all the but at least it's fun

EDIT: I have to admit, that my results are better I would riot if Estonia and The Netherlands would fail.

I guess all methods have flaws - My problem with countries like Croatia, San Marino and Czech Rep is that there are no meaningful data regarding them. (simply because other countries didn't really had that much chances to give them points) Yet it's of course possible for them to do "well" (e.g. San Marino qualifying in 2014)
Maybe we should combine our rankings in the end and the result will be totally accurate

 

[megzpegz]

A very good entry is going to miss out on the final.

 

[JamieBrown]

I guess all methods have flaws - My problem with countries like Croatia, San Marino and Czech Rep is that there are no meaningful data regarding them. (simply because other countries didn't really had that much chances to give them points) Yet it's of course possible for them to do "well" (e.g. San Marino qualifying in 2014)
Maybe we should combine our rankings in the end and the result will be totally accurate

Oh yeah. Yes. I once calculated the televoting points of each country but then as well felt it's not very meaningful, because especially Germany had a huge advantage after their good results between 1998 and 2001 So I cut it down to the latest 10 years, hell work to update the files every year Now it's like you've said. There are not many points countries like Cyprus, Czech Republic, Croatia or San Marino could've gotten in these years. But as I said, it's more for the fun

We can absolutley combine our ranking. Let's start with the 415 and 385 points Russia and Sweden will get in my final :twisted:

 

[Jukica]

Here are my predictions
Sure thing:

1. Armenia
2. Azerbaijan
3. Croatia
4. Cyprus
5. Hungary
6. Iceland
7. Russia

Could go either way:

1. Bosnia & Herzegovina
2. Czech Republic
3. Estonia
4. Finland
5. Greece
6. Malta
7. The Netherlands

Could go either way - ranked:

1. The Netherlands
2. Bosnia & Herzegovina
3. Czech Republic
4. Estonia
5. Greece
6. Malta
7. Finland

Long shot:

1. Austria
2. Moldova
3. Montenegro
4. San Marino

So, I'm gonna say: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Croatia, Cyprus, Hungary, Iceland, Russia, The Netherlands, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czech Republic (I think that 10th qualifier will be between Czech Republic / Estonia / Greece)

More predictions: Russia will win in televoting, Croatia will win in jury (but jury winner will definitely depend on stage performances)

 

[John1]

Locked - 100%


Depend on the song's performance


Almost sure to fail


DNQ - 100%

 

[carl1]

My prediction before the rehearsals:
Guaranteed:
Very likely:
Probably/Borderline:
Might sneak in:
No chance in hell:

Unbelievably tough semi this..

 

[Nikkita]

Already in final:

Probably in final:

Surprise eggs:

Hell no:

 

[Carrie]

 

[Matt]

This is hard, can't wait for rehearsals to get a better picture but I took a stab at it

Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Repbulic
Hungary
Iceland
Russia
The Netherlands

 

[SwissKung]

Why do you all think Azerbaidjan is a safe qualifier? In this strong semi-final and knowing that the singer apparently can not deliver live I wouldn't be surprise if the country misses the final. I mean, they wered saved in 2014 & 2015 by the jury but this year with the new voting system that could change.

 

[GermanBango]

Did yet another simulation but this time I tried to use the new voting system (as always the results include odds, voting patterns, fan polls, Youtube-rankings and views as well as qualification-rates) ... Quite a lot of work

Country	Jury Points	Jury Rank	Televoting Points	Televoting Rank	Total
	182	1	165	1	347
	173	2	63	11	236
	123	3	71	9	194
	99	4	91	4	190
	69	8	92	3	161
	81	7	76	7	157
	68	9	84	5	152
	18	13	133	2	151
	98	5	51	12	149
	67	10	78	6	149
	93	6	31	15	124
	17	14	74	8	91
	44	12	46	13	90
	54	11	30	16	84
	8	16	66	10	74
	9	15	42	14	51
	8	17	19	17	27
	7	18	6	18	13

 

[xymothe]

Did yet another simulation but this time I tried to use the new voting system (as always the results include odds, voting patterns, fan polls, Youtube-rankings and views as well as qualification-rates) ... Quite a lot of work
[/table]

Worth the effort, your calculations are very interesting!

 

[GermanBango]

Worth the effort, your calculations are very interesting!

Thanks - Gonna do it for Semi 2 tonight.

 

[Mii11]

I also did a simulation. This is what I got:
Jury
1. Croatia - 148
2. Russia - 139
3. Malta - 138
4. Czech Republic - 135
5. Iceland - 116
6. Armenia - 98
7. Azerbaijan - 77
8. Cyprus - 77
9. Hungary - 65
10. Netherlands - 65
11. Estonia - 42
12. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 40
13. Moldova - 23
14. Austria - 22
15. Greece - 10
16. San Marino - 10
17. Finland - 8
18. Montenegro - 5

Televoting:
1. Croatia - 185
2. Russia - 151
3. Cyrpus - 116
4. Austria - 91
5. Armenia - 80
6. Malta - 69
7. San Marino - 64
8. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 58
9. Czech Republic - 54
10. Azerbaijan - 51
11. Iceland - 51
12. Greece - 50
13. Netherlands - 43
14. Finland - 42
15. Hungary - 37
16. Moldova - 37
17. Montenegro - 22
18. Estonia - 17

Total:
1. Croatia - 333
2. Russia - 290
3. Malta - 207
4. Cyprus - 193
5. Czech Republic - 189
6. Armenia - 178
7. Iceland - 167
8. Azerbaijan - 128
9. Austria - 113
10. Netherlands - 108
11. Hungary - 102
12. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 98
13. San Marino - 74
14. Greece - 60
15. Moldova - 60
16. Estonia - 59
17. Finland - 50
18. Montenegro - 27

If this turned out to be true, then and would qualify.
This means that () () () ( ) and would be out.