Who will qualify from semi 1?

[QwaarJet]

OK, predicting qualifiers now we have the running order. Next prediction will come after rehearsals.

Hungary
Croatia
Netherlands
Armenia
Russia
Cyprus
Estonia
Azerbaijan
Iceland
Malta

I hope I'm wrong, but I have the Czechs going out due to the draw.

 

[John1]

OK, predicting qualifiers now we have the running order. Next prediction will come after rehearsals.

Hungary
Croatia
Netherlands
Armenia
Russia
Cyprus
Estonia
Azerbaijan
Iceland
Malta

I hope I'm wrong, but I have the Czechs going out due to the draw.

Estonia?
Did you forget that Azerbaijan sang just after Jüri who isn't considered as strong as before?

 

[John1]

UPDATE WITH THE RUNNING ORDER

 

[QwaarJet]

Estonia?
Did you forget that Azerbaijan sang just after Jüri who isn't considered as strong as before?

Estonia was the qualifier I was least sure about it. That opinion may very well changed in rehearsals, but at the moment I have it slipping through.

 

[Mii11]

I think all of you underestimate . Last year they were 11th, even though the song was horrible. I now believe Lidia can make it to the final!

and will definitely be non-qualifiers, and are 80% out as well.

 

[QwaarJet]

I think all of you underestimate . Last year they were 11th, even though the song was horrible. I now believe Lidia can make it to the final!

and will definitely be non-qualifiers, and are 80% out as well.

So Moldova qualifies but Estonia doesn't? I find that hard (impossible) to believe.

 

[Mii11]

So Moldova qualifies but Estonia doesn't? I find that hard (impossible) to believe.

Well, I suppose you like song, don't you? Personally I don't enjoy it, I find it extremely bland. Moreover the fact that it's almost in the middle, sandwiched between (preceded by , a hot favorite) and will make it even more forgettable IMO. On the other hand is a very catchy quick song and is at the beginning. It is preceded by and followed by more 'serious' songs ( and ) so I think it might stand out (together with ). Therefore I think either or will make it to the final.

 

[QwaarJet]

Well, I suppose you like song, don't you? Personally I don't enjoy it, I find it extremely bland. Moreover the fact that it's almost in the middle, sandwiched between (preceded by , a hot favorite) and will make it even more forgettable IMO. On the other hand is a very catchy quick song and is at the beginning. It is preceded by and followed by more 'serious' songs ( and ) so I think it might stand out (together with ). Therefore I think either or will make it to the final.

Estonia isn't even in my top 10 at the moment. It's not song bias. But one has obvious quality and flawless vocals, the other is Eurovision by numbers and brings to the plate (that I can see) that will make it memorable.

 

[Evalngelion]

My Pronostic with Juries - Semi 1 (If juries are 100% professionals on music industry, his should be the result moreless)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Pronostic with Televote

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

100% Sure 3 qualifiers.

 

[Kitakaze]

Just my opinion. I've given this a bit of thought and I think it will play out something like this:

1. Russia
Gap
2. Azerbaijan
3. Iceland
4. Croatia
5. Armenia
Gap
6. Cyprus
7. Malta
8. Hungary
Gap
9. Estonia
Gap
10. Austria
11. Czech Republic
12. Netherlands
13. Bosnia & Herzegovina
14. Greece
Gap
15. Finland
16. Moldova
Gap
17. Montenegro
18. San Marino

I have Azerbaijan, Iceland, Croatia and Armenia all grouped together as songs that could potentially finish 2nd. Obviously it will come down to each of their performances and vocals on the night. It's hard to say at this stage but I'm giving the edge to Azerbaijan because they have a better draw than Croatia and Armenia, being later in the show and you always know you can expect something visually impressive from them. I also think the song itself has somewhat stronger instant appeal; it's more of an earworm than the other three. Samra's vocals are a bit uncertain though which could make a big difference. I expect she'll be fighting for the same televotes as Iveta who is the superior vocalist.

At the other end of the qualifiers, I think the last 2 spots will be fought between 6 countries: Estonia, Austria, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Greece. I think Estonia is the safest as I strongly suspect many juries will appreciate it and Juri being the last male soloist to perform also works in his favour. I think Austria is next as I imagine the energy and flavour of the song will stand out and appeal to more people than the heavier, slightly uninspiring Czech Republic and Netherlands which is why I'm giving it the edge. Zoë will also likely benefit more from the draw. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the difference between some of these songs came down to 1-2 votes though.

I suspect Bosnia & Herzegovina will come close mainly because of televotes from neighbours Croatia and Montenegro but I doubt the song will have much, if any appeal outside the Balkans. We all know the poor record for non-English songs. As for Greece, the writing's on the wall. In the last 2 years, they already had their worst two results since the semi finals were introduced- and with fairly decent songs, so I don't see why that direction would suddenly change this year with song that would be indigestible for a lot of people. Friendly votes from Cyprus alone won't be enough this time and they can't rely on any diaspora or neighbourly votes from Australia or Albania. The running order was the final nail in the coffin I think.

 

[DaFlo]

After draw prediction:

 

[GermanBango]

My Last Semi 1 Simulation for this year is done! Changed a few thing here and there:
The Jury-results are including Odds (40%), Polls/Youtube-Rankings (40%) and voting-patterns of the last 16 years (20%)...
The Televoting-results are including Polls (30%) and voting-patterns (70%) ...
I think the results are pretty interesting

Overall-Rank	Country	Jury-Points	Jury-Rank	Televoting-Points	Televoting-Rank	Total-Points
1		177	1	168	1	345
2		165	2	96	3	261
3		95	4	104	2	199
4		114	3	81	5	195
5		83	8	80	6	163
6		85	7	59	8	148
7		89	5	42	11	131
8		89	6	42	12	131
9		59	11	65	7	124
10		72	9	52	10	124
11		26	14	92	4	118
12		72	10	39	13	111
13		35	12	54	9	89
14		33	13	26	16	59
15		6	17	34	14	40
16		7	16	29	15	36
17		9	15	22	17	31
18		6	18	11	18	17

 

[John1]

New qualifiers from this bloodbath (3rd and final update)

The last spot? Fight between and I think...

 

[Uvaro]

but i think and could get through too. what a tough semi final

 

[ayzelto]

My prediction:

1. Russia
2. Armenia
3. Hungary
4. Cyprus
5. The Netherlands
6. Estonia
7. Croatia
8. Iceland
9. Malta
10. Azerbaijan

11. Greece
12. Finland
13. Austria
14. Czech Republic
15. Moldova
16. Montenegro
17. San Marino

 

[Terence]

So many people predict Greece to fail - I don't know... it's just... Greece! I can't see them failing (I said so about Turkey in 2011 indeed) but there's Cyprus in the same semifinal which will give them a small but needed boost.

 

[lowyby]

So many people predict Greece to fail - I don't know... it's just... Greece! I can't see them failing (I said so about Turkey in 2011 indeed) but there's Cyprus in the same semifinal which will give them a small but needed boost.

Azerbaijan was also there in 2011

 

[zs1001]

[MENTION=10896]GermanBango[/MENTION] You should change Belgium to Bosnia. Anyway, it is a great simulation! I hope Zoe will be finalist instead of Ira but it is almost perfect.

 

[navras]

 

[Terence]

Azerbaijan was also there in 2011

Okay now you just gave me hope I'm sure the Greek performance will be good... geez, I'm bringing all sort of excuses to not seeing Greece failing.

Just a quick thought - anyone else thinks that if the Czech Republic/Croatia qualify, they will be announced last?!