Who will qualify from semi 1?

[Terence]

It's not that they'll trash Russia, more like they'll prefer other, more modern entries. Look at Latvia, Sweden, Belgium last year. Very modern entries that did well with the juries. On the other hand Italy, Poland and France who came with more old fashioned were marked much lower. Russia this year is defnitely a little dated and I think will lose marks to Hungary, The Netherlands,Azerbaijan and Estonia

I see your point there. You have valid reasons but I can't see juries NOT supporting Russia. Their 2013 entry was anything but innovative but it did well with them.

 

[martin]

My guess

95% sure big shock if not
Russia
Azerbaijan

80% sure very good chance
Armenia
Croatia
Hungary

70% sure good chance
Iceland

60% sure some good chances
Malta
Estonia

50% hope boarderline
Greece
Bosnia
-------- Not to qualifly
Netherlands
Cyprus
Austria

40% hope
Czech Republic

30% Hope
Moldova
Finland

20% hope
Montengro

5% hope
San Marino

 

[DanielLuis]

I just can't see Bosnia and Greece qualifying this year. At most, I can see Bosnia do it, but that's it

 

[Jif]

Qualifiers:
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Hungary
Iceland
Netherlands
Russia

Non-qualifiers
Austria
Estonia
Finland
Greece
Malta
Moldova
Montenegro
San Marino

 

[martin]

I just can't see Bosnia and Greece qualifying this year. At most, I can see Bosnia do it, but that's it

Well Greece have qualifly every year before and Bosnia have a lot bosnians people who vote in other country. Still both songs is not strong and could fail

 

[ag89]

Well Greece have qualifly every year before and Bosnia have a lot bosnians people who vote in other country. Still both songs is not strong and could fail

From all these countries Bosnia can expect televote points from Montenegro, Croatia, Austria and the Netherlands. That's not enough to qualify so they will need something else and some "ordinary" points from countries where there are no Bosnians. And that's like a huge majority of countries competing in this semi final.

Diaspora points play an important rule, but not that important.

Btw, in this semi final Croatia, Armenia, Moldova and probably Greece have much stronger diaspora base. Will they vote?! Who knows.

 

[Terence]

Could Moldova go through at the expense of Romania from the diaspora?

 

[jlsj]

A prediction before the rehearsals start:

 

[joancamo]

I'm preparing myself with this http://tinybuddha.com/blog/4-steps-to-deal-with-disappointment/
I think I will need it after semi 1

 

[DaFlo]

Updater after first rehearsals:

Safe


Borderline +


Borderline -


No chance

 

[aef]

[MENTION=13314]DaFlo[/MENTION]:

Safe
? definitely NOT safe with that awful song (despite a good staging)

Borderline +
100% qualifier

Borderline -
I agree with you at this section...

No chance
...and again at this one

 

[DaFlo]

[MENTION=14677]aef[/MENTION]

well Greece got more points in the press poll than Croatia I think both will qualify

 

[Mii11]

After rehearsals:
100% Qualifiers:
1. Russia
2. Armenia
3. Malta
Rather certain:
4. Czech Republic
5. Netherlands
6. Cyprus
Borderline:
7. Austria
8. Hungary
9. Moldova
10. Bosnia and Herzegovina
11. Iceland
12. Croatia
13. Greece
14. Azerbaijan
No Chance:
15. Estonia
16. San Marino
17. Finland
18. Montenegro

 

[WhoKnows]

After rehearsals.

In the or likelihood of qualifying
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

 

[Kaz]

Far out, this is probably the hardest semi final in Eurovision history, tbh. If half of the songs in this semi were in Semi 2, they'd be definite qualifiers, but in semi 1, they're borderline. (looking at , , , )

 

[nikolay_BG]

Whatever happens, SF1 will be hella entertaining and the comments after it will be golden. Damn, I'm so grateful that Bulgaria is not in it.

 

[Dutchball]

I'm rooting for 15 songs to get through

 

[Citelis]

I still believe that we ( ) won't qualify!

 

[GermanBango]

After thinking about the whole situation (with the rehearsals in mind) I think that is actually not going to win the Televoting in Semi 1 - call me crazy but I think is going to do it. (or they at least won't be that far aways from Russia)
is going to win the Jury-Vote and the Semi overall though.

The qualifiers will be:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

 

[JamieBrown]

From what I've seen today, I rate the chances of the countries like this

Safe
95 % - Can't explain this, but I've seen a more than solid staging and it's a song that's considered to do rather well, but not being hyped
80 % - This is still the favourite, but all the artists are still struggling sometimes with the show, especially with the synchronicity

Almost done
75 % - Despite the song's being a hurt for most of the fans, this has a well staging, fitting vocals and still a lot of ethnic vibes
70 % - Yes, this is a strong contender for the Top 5 in general, but first of all it has to be proven that both, juries and nonfan-voters are approving this sort of unusual music
65 % - I really feel the CATS effect. An unexciting song with a anti-show. This will qualify, even if the juries have to help.
65 % - Manga is calling. Weird show, but the song has it all.

Borderline +
60 % - The same as with the dutch song. The public will have this close around the 10th position, but the juries will rank this higher.
60 % - Yes, I heard the vocalist flaw, but that Safura girl had them as well, and at her song the vocals were more important than in this one
55 % - With the vocals from today, she will fail, because then she has nothing to appeal.
55 % - It's just a matter of how many songs the juries can save.

Borderline -
50 % - The semi is strong, the song is not that easy and it's still Czechia we're talking about.
45 % - A safe qualifier. If not Jala. And it will be interesting to see the reaction towards the fence.

Have to fight
40 % - Too many things working against her imo.
35 % - This is already an approvement, just like her vocals were a bit.
30 % - There's a thing about former host countries not to qualify in the following year. Nonetheless, she has many strong opponents and the thing that makes her song better than "Il pleut de l'or" is the girl herself, so that's like not going to work out

Hoping for a miracle
10 % - Lifeless performance today
10 % - Obvious reasons
10 % - As if 2013 hasn't proved enough that dubstep & strobo lights explosions aren't made for Eurovision