Semi 2: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[Jukica]

My prediction:

A sure thing:


A safe bet:


Could go either way:


Not good chances:


A long-shot:


Prediction:

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2. 
3. 
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8. 
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11. 
12. 
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15. 
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18. 

 

[Chorizo]

because of the diaspora and political support from certain countries.
because of the diaspora and their neighbors



I think and might qualify instead of Serbia and Denmark.

After the rehearsals:





I think this might be more popular with the audience than expected, like Poland in 2016 + support from the diaspora.
NEW Fantastic staging.

NEW Not a popular genre but they will have their fans and supporters.

The song is a mediocre nothingness, the staging is a tasteless absurdity, and a goat could sing better than Yulia. If any other country dared to send such garbage, it would be last in the semi. Nevertheless, I'm afraid the Russian diaspora and juries from Russian satellite states will support it enough to lead to an undeserved qualification. I really hope I'm wrong here, since unlike in other years, the Russians hate their own song this year, possibly leading to limited support in the televote.

Out:
Staging nightmare like in 2015 but I'm not sure how popular it will really be.
Too weak for the diaspora and the neighbors to save it.

I still think might make it too.

 

[Citelis]

and one of

 

[kayak]

100%
Australia
Russia
Ukraine

75%
Sweden
Netherlands

50%
Norway
Hungary
Moldova
Latvia
Poland

 

[Iker]

BEFORE REHEARSALS

100%
Norway
Denmark
Russia
Moldova
Australia
Sweden
Ukraine

50/50
Serbia
The Netherlands
Poland
Malta
Hungary
Montenegro

DNQ
Romania
San Marino
Georgia
Latvia
Slovenia

Prediction:
Norway
Denmark
Russia
Moldova
Australia
Sweden
Ukraine
Serbia
Hungary
Montenegro

Why there are so many like you who think that Russia makes the Final for 100%? Just because of their diaspora / political ties thing and their 100% qualification record? Cmon this is by far their most dreadful entry up to now since the SF's started. If there's any justice they need to miss out this time finally.

I bet this time Russia stays. I don't think the pity vote will be significant. I know that this SF is not super strong but still ... it still sounds bad live even if not anymore ghastly awful.

 

[John1]

Still thinking of my predictions before the rehearsals, a few things have changed 'till then

 

[Trece]

Why there are so many like you who think that Russia makes the Final for 100%? Just because of their diaspora / political ties thing and their 100% qualification record? Cmon this is by far their most dreadful entry up to now since the SF's started. If there's any justice they need to miss out this time finally.

I bet this time Russia stays. I don't think the pity vote will be significant. I know that this SF is not super strong but still ... it still sounds bad live even if not anymore ghastly awful.

I totally agree with you, its my 43. But russia is russia, i can't imagine they dnq but lets hope other more deserving country qualifies instead of russia (or sweden)

 

[Nefertiti]

After rehearsals, here's my new prediction:

1. Sweden (or Norway, Alexander Rybak's charisma is capable of winning a semifinal with the worst song ever)
2. Ukraine
3. Norway (or Sweden)
4. Australia
5. Denmark
6. Hungary
7.Netherlands (although I'm not sure because of that messy and disappointing staging, but the song is actually good)
8. Poland (if Lukas' vocals are decent)
9.Moldova (oh, the staging)
10. Malta / Slovenia (due to good staging)/ Romania (appears to have good staging and large diaspora)

I see people saying that Russia will be a clear qualifier because of the Russian diaspora. I actually believe the entry/staging/vocals/everything is so bad it is going to be the first year that Russia will not qualify. I can't see anyone in the juries giving this any points and don't think the televote is going to be enough. The performance is horrible and I feel very bad for Julia because she's really nice, but she's being used and mistreated by the Russian delegation.

 

[Sabiondo]

I see people saying that Russia will be a clear qualifier because of the Russian diaspora. I actually the entry/staging/vocals/everything is so bad it is going to be the first year that Russia will not qualify. I can't see anyone in the juries giving this any points and don't think the televote is going to be enough. The performance is horrible and I feel very bad for Julia because she's really nice, but she's being used and mistreated by the Russian delegation.

But since Monika Kuszyńska QF to the final in 2015 with a dull song + nobody complained when Vorobyov QF with a shity RedOne song (despite beining last with jury + 4th place on televoting on his semifinal), then this could easily QF.

 

[blue00eyes]

But since Monika Kuszyńska QF to the final in 2015 with a dull song + nobody complained when Vorobyov QF with a shity RedOne song (despite beining last with jury + 4th place on televoting on his semifinal), then this could easily QF.

had the best possible allocation draw & closed the semi. (like 3rd place televote not so far from 2nd Latvia)
Russia can qualify because of high televote but even Russian people are not supportive. At least many of them.

 

[Nefertiti]

But since Monika Kuszyńska QF to the final in 2015 with a dull song + nobody complained when Vorobyov QF with a shity RedOne song (despite beining last with jury + 4th place on televoting on his semifinal), then this could easily QF.

Yeah, Vorbyov's song was shitty but his vocals were at least good and Monica Kuszyńka was bad and the song dull, but not even close to the awfulness of Julia. This year's Russian entry has everything: bad singer, not a very good song (I mean, it's not the worst, but not the best) and a horrible performance. And it's crystal clear that Russia doesn't give a fuck about Julia and her perfomance this year, you just have to watch that staging and how they hide her behind dancers...

 

[Himan]

'Sure' to qualify:
, , , , Hungary and Netherlands will have style fan base and quite good songs.. Denmark, Sweden and Ukraine have good songs

probable qualifiers:
, , , , Poland and Latvia are on the border. Poland, cause of the bad stage act. Latvia, cause I don't know how Europe will like it. Can Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova bring Russia to the final? Probably... But not 100% sure.

Probable NQ:
, , , , Romania at a bad position, Serbia also, and not the best songs. Slovenia on a good position.

'sure' NQ:
, , San Marino is now even more chance less. Montenegro may has a chance from place 16. But it won't work outside the Balkans I'm afraid.

, , , , , Well things have changed a lot. Hungary, Ukraine, and Sweden were as good as I thought. But also Norway went up in the polls, Moldova looked really nice. Australia is also high in the polls and good stage presence so These 6 are sure.

probable qualifiers:
, , , , Well If I gave more sure answers that would be stupid. Russia still has his diaspora. Romania has that too, but has a better song than I thought, so even though I want these songs absolutely out of the final. I still think they will get there. Denmark and the Netherlands were sure, so I don't want to put them lower than this. But they are definitely in the danger zone right now.

Probable NQ:
, , , , Well actually these songs are good. Personally I have Latvia in my top 10(like very often!) But I don't think they will qualify. Poland is a real dark horse here, cause I think they also have some diaspora and a song that is actually 11-13, So that could just do it. Than Probably Netherlands is out.

'sure' NQ:
, , San Marino is very gimmicky. It will not work I'm afraid, but they will be 12th in the final. Montenegro is just not good enough I guess. I think Malta is still boring, even with the LED-screens. I actually feel they shouldn't

 

[Kitakaze]

This semi is a lot easier to predict but the last few spots are more open. I would say:

Safe
1. Norway
2. Sweden
3. Australia
4. Ukraine
5. Moldova
6. Poland
7. Hungary

Likely
8. Denmark

Borderline
9. Netherlands
10. Russia
11. Romania
12. Latvia

Unlikely
13. Serbia
14. Malta
15. Georgia
16. Montenegro
17. Slovenia

Out
18. San Marino

 

[mauve]

I wish Georgia to qualify so badly. Love their live stage. 1

 

[Iker]

I wish Georgia to qualify so badly. Love their live stage. 1

If Russia qualifies and Georgia won't I'll be angry.

Georgian song is neither a masterpiece for me neither something ESC friendly in any way but the song makes me feel warm (even lyrics are about it - check out), the mood is heartening and their vocal harmonies are spot on live too. I think they outshine most acts in their SF with their class. It also is very genuine and with its distinct flavour stemming from their own language.

 

[leelook]

Sure qualifiers: , , , , , and
Sure non-qualifiers: , , ,
The ones scraping by from the borderline category: , and

 

[mauve]

If Russia qualifies and Georgia won't I'll be angry.

Georgian song is neither a masterpiece for me neither something ESC friendly in any way but the song makes me feel warm (even lyrics are about it - check out), the mood is heartening and their vocal harmonies are spot on live too. I think they outshine most acts in their SF with their class. It also is very genuine and with its distinct flavour stemming from their own language.

I can only agree with everything you said. Loved Georgia's song from the beginning and the rehearsals made me love the song just more. I doubt they'll qualify, but hope dies last.

 

[Iker]

I can only agree with everything you said. Loved Georgia's song from the beginning and the rehearsals made me love the song just more. I doubt they'll qualify, but hope dies last.

I think it's one of these entries that makes and will make much bigger impression live or comparatively so (vs the other countries) than in studio version. Checking their pre-party and rehearsal snippet reinforces my suspicion. They know what they're doing vocally and aside from good light / camera angles they don't need much more to make a good impression at least on me (it's a question mark though this year ... but it's generally chaotic this year atm).


I don't know why some actively dislike Georgia this year or cross this one off as sure NQ.
It can have Salvador Sobral effect on smaller scale, just enough to squeeze through SF2.

 

[Ezio]

 

[LoveHate]

My prediction (including how many points I would give the entries)

Locks:
Sweden (2 p)
Norway
Australia

Very likely:
Hungary (10 p)
Moldova (7 p)
Ukraine (3 p)
Denmark (6 p)
Netherlands (8 p)

Maybe:
Poland
Romania (5 p)
——————-
Russia
Latvia
Georgia (12 p)
Serbia
Slovenia (4 p)

Mind blown:
Malta
Montenegro (1 p)

No:
San Marino