Semi 2: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[Yazy]

My personal prediction is:

 

[ES2011]

My prediction

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9. Mainly because it's Russia, no other reason.
10.

11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

 

[Schlagerman1]

I tried to make my "guess the vote" where I try to guess how the countries juries and televote will look like. Mostly I am wrong, but it is a fun way for me to try to guess everything. I will give you the total results from the jury and televote, and count it all.
The jury qualifiers are in light green and the televote qualifiers are in pink. The blue represents the one that qualifies totally.

will probably win the jury vote with a big margin, with and on top 3. Here qualifies thanks to the jury. is one of the bigger jury faves, but it will not be enough to qualify though.
The televoting wins (somewhat surprisingly) by , mainly thanks for the popularity of Alexander Rybak. is 2nd and is 3rd. will get their usual help from the viewers, and it will be just enough to surpass Latvia for the 10th spot. Denmark however, also pretty popular with the viewers, will be left behind as it stands.

The semi 1 guess can be seen here!

 

[John1]

I tried to make my "guess the vote" where I try to guess how the countries juries and televote will look like. Mostly I am wrong, but it is a fun way for me to try to guess everything. I will give you the total results from the jury and televote, and count it all.
The jury qualifiers are in light green and the televote qualifiers are in pink. The blue represents the one that qualifies totally.

will probably win the jury vote with a big margin, with and on top 3. Here qualifies thanks to the jury. is one of the bigger jury faves, but it will not be enough to qualify though.
The televoting wins (somewhat surprisingly) by , mainly thanks for the popularity of Alexander Rybak. is 2nd and is 3rd. will get their usual help from the viewers, and it will be just enough to surpass Latvia for the 10th spot. Denmark however, also pretty popular with the viewers, will be left behind as it stands.

The semi 1 guess can be seen here!

Barely anyone remembers from Alexander Rybak. He won 10 years ago. I'm only dealing with people, who aren't eurofans.

 

[lolita]

Barely anyone remembers from Alexander Rybak. He won 10 years ago. I'm only dealing with people, who aren't eurofans.

That is true, and in my surroundings people don't watch ESC at all, at least not regularly, so if someone will watch it this year for the first time, noone would know about him. Only eurofans, and we know that we are rare, we are not huge percent of those votes, so there is no chance that he will be benefited from those who know him.

 

[Schlagerman1]

Barely anyone remembers from Alexander Rybak. He won 10 years ago. I'm only dealing with people, who aren't eurofans.

Well sure, I was also surprised that he happened to win my televoting, and I may have given him a little too much from western and southern countries.
I am though sure that Norway will get a lot from nordic and former USSR-countries. I am sure for example that Sweden will give at least 10 points in televoting, just because it is Alexander. I am also sure that countries like Russia, Latvia, Ukraine and Denmark all will give fairly high to him, possibly a few others too will score him points. So a good placement in televoting is not impossible if you ask me. I also wonder who else would win the televote? Sure, Sweden and Ukraine may be strong contenders for that as well, being fairly young boys with a nice show and uptempo songs. Possibly Hungary could do better than I think (I certainly hope so) thanks for being a rather special entry in the bunch. But the rest no. Australia has no chance on earth winning the televote, I don't think they will convince enough for that. Netherlands will appeal the viewers that vote perhaps once or twice on their phone and the others are way too weak to get even noticed by the Europeans and Australians.
Nevertheless, even if he doesn't win the televoting, I am sure we will see Norway in the final, and ending 4th in the semi in total, doesn't mean he will end up in the top 10 in the final (Israel was 3rd in the semi last year, and ended up 23rd in the final so....anything can happen folks)...

 

[lolita]

Well sure, I was also surprised that he happened to win my televoting, and I may have given him a little too much from western and southern countries.
I am though sure that Norway will get a lot from nordic and former USSR-countries. I am sure for example that Sweden will give at least 10 points in televoting, just because it is Alexander. I am also sure that countries like Russia, Latvia, Ukraine and Denmark all will give fairly high to him, possibly a few others too will score him points. So a good placement in televoting is not impossible if you ask me. I also wonder who else would win the televote? Sure, Sweden and Ukraine may be strong contenders for that as well, being fairly young boys with a nice show and uptempo songs. Possibly Hungary could do better than I think (I certainly hope so) thanks for being a rather special entry in the bunch. But the rest no. Australia has no chance on earth winning the televote, I don't think they will convince enough for that. Netherlands will appeal the viewers that vote perhaps once or twice on their phone and the others are way too weak to get even noticed by the Europeans and Australians.
Nevertheless, even if he doesn't win the televoting, I am sure we will see Norway in the final, and ending 4th in the semi in total, doesn't mean he will end up in the top 10 in the final (Israel was 3rd in the semi last year, and ended up 23rd in the final so....anything can happen folks)...

Nice conclusion, I agree with everything. Most of the fans on the other forums, think that whoever wins this semi, would be placed with the rest of semi2 on the right side of the board, because this semi is so weak and they think all these songs are bad, in their opinion. I think that Sweden, Australia, Ukraine and Hungary, maybe Norway, have huge chances to be on the left side, and some favorites and overhyped songs from first semi would actually be on the right side.

 

[Schlagerman1]

Nice conclusion, I agree with everything. Most of the fans on the other forums, think that whoever wins this semi, would be placed with the rest of semi2 on the right side of the board, because this semi is so weak and they think all these songs are bad, in their opinion. I think that Sweden, Australia, Ukraine and Hungary, maybe Norway, have huge chances to be on the left side, and some favorites and overhyped songs from first semi would actually be on the right side.

Thanks, yeah, this semi might be weaker, but of course some of these will be high up the rankings. I predict that Sweden and Australia will be top 5, and that Ukraine is probably top 10. Hungary I wish would make it to top 10, but I am happy if they just qualify to be honest. With Norway I think they will do well in the semi, but that most people that likes it will during the final will be like "Meh, I think I will vote for Czech Republic or Israel now" and it will drop down to maybe even around 20th place. And I agree with you, even if I think Estonia for example will qualify for the final at around 5th place, I am absolutely not sure that they will even manage to get top 20 in the final...the jury might kill it off early. Could also see Belgium being killed with the televotes.

Well in the end, we have absolutely no idea how it will end for sure. Maybe we will know more when the rehearsals begin on Sunday!

 

[lolita]

Thanks, yeah, this semi might be weaker, but of course some of these will be high up the rankings. I predict that Sweden and Australia will be top 5, and that Ukraine is probably top 10. Hungary I wish would make it to top 10, but I am happy if they just qualify to be honest. With Norway I think they will do well in the semi, but that most people that likes it will during the final will be like "Meh, I think I will vote for Czech Republic or Israel now" and it will drop down to maybe even around 20th place. And I agree with you, even if I think Estonia for example will qualify for the final at around 5th place, I am absolutely not sure that they will even manage to get top 20 in the final...the jury might kill it off early. Could also see Belgium being killed with the televotes.

Well in the end, we have absolutely no idea how it will end for sure. Maybe we will know more when the rehearsals begin on Sunday!

Well said all, I literally think the same about all these entries here counted. But it is also true that we don't really have idea what will for sure happen, and that is why I am excited about this year's competition. Can't wait for it, but days are passing slooowly.

 

[4815162342]

167 televoting points is a huge score. After 2009 only the Babushki's, Loreen, Mans, Sergey Lazarev, Salvador, Kristian Kostov and Sunstroke Project had more points than that in their semi.
If you consider he is having such a score from starting the semi, he should be for sure Top 4 with Televoters in the final. No way he would drop that low in the final

 

[Nefertiti]

Well, after what hapened last year with Italy being the absolute favorite and ending up 6th, it is absolutely impossible to know what will happen. As for Rybak, I'm not a huge fan of his song but I like him and I believe that his charisma and performing abilities will help him to do really well in the semifinal (considering that semi 2 is quite weak). I predic a solid top 5 with Sweden, Australia and Ukraine. However, he will have to compete with the big ones in the final (Israel, Bulgaria, France, Czech Republic...) and personally i think he's not going ro reach the top 5, or even the top 10.

 

[John1]

Well sure, I was also surprised that he happened to win my televoting, and I may have given him a little too much from western and southern countries.
I am though sure that Norway will get a lot from nordic and former USSR-countries. I am sure for example that Sweden will give at least 10 points in televoting, just because it is Alexander. I am also sure that countries like Russia, Latvia, Ukraine and Denmark all will give fairly high to him, possibly a few others too will score him points. So a good placement in televoting is not impossible if you ask me. I also wonder who else would win the televote? Sure, Sweden and Ukraine may be strong contenders for that as well, being fairly young boys with a nice show and uptempo songs. Possibly Hungary could do better than I think (I certainly hope so) thanks for being a rather special entry in the bunch. But the rest no. Australia has no chance on earth winning the televote, I don't think they will convince enough for that. Netherlands will appeal the viewers that vote perhaps once or twice on their phone and the others are way too weak to get even noticed by the Europeans and Australians.
Nevertheless, even if he doesn't win the televoting, I am sure we will see Norway in the final, and ending 4th in the semi in total, doesn't mean he will end up in the top 10 in the final (Israel was 3rd in the semi last year, and ended up 23rd in the final so....anything can happen folks)...

Does it truly matter whether the singer of THYWAS is Alexander Rybak rather than an other one? I mean, the song would be dreadful in both cases.

 

[Iker]

Am I the only one who thinks that Malta will qualify?

I think Russia will not for the first time.

 

[ati0111]

My prediction before the rehearsals:
1.Ukraine 2.Sweden 3.Denmark 4.Australia 5.Hungary 6.The Netherlands 7.Norway 8.Poland 9.Russia 10.Romania
11.Serbia 12.Georgia 13.Malta 14.Slovenia 15.Moldova 16.Latvia 17.Montenegro 18.San Marino

 

[theditz83]

My top 10 has been updated with my final thoughts before the the rehearsals start.

Definites:


Risky bets:
/

Bottom of the pack:

 

[Trece]

BEFORE REHEARSALS

100%
Norway
Denmark
Russia
Moldova
Australia
Sweden
Ukraine

50/50
Serbia
The Netherlands
Poland
Malta
Hungary
Montenegro

DNQ
Romania
San Marino
Georgia
Latvia
Slovenia

Prediction:
Norway
Denmark
Russia
Moldova
Australia
Sweden
Ukraine
Serbia
Hungary
Montenegro

 

[Ana Raquel]

- it's australia
- it's sweden
- it's rybak
- it's ukraine + someone with 9038432082094829034820 fangirls, high chances of winning televote
- stands out for being metal + good staging
- stands out for being house music + decent staging + diaspora
- stage slayage
- idk if it's gonna do well on televoting, but i see it placing high in the jury


the last two i'm kind of unsure, but i'd guess and either or



about non qualifiers

- awful staging and it doesn't stand out
- awful staging, stands out for barbara dex only
- boring staging
- amazing song, seems like a great staging, but it's between hungary and sweden, so she will probably flop on televote
- they are usually great on televote but it's way too bland, it's after rybak and i don't think the staging is good enough to make them stand out
- not strong enough to pass as a joke act even with the robots
- it could qualify if it's considered a joke act/trainwreck but i don't know if people will buy it. and i don't think the jury will risk the rest of the reputation they have to save russia because... it's russia

 

[GlamSIMorous]

My prediction:











My wish:











Also absolutely fine, because its so hard to make a decision:

 

[DaFlo]

After the first rehearsals:



Malta/Denmark close behind

San Marino is hopeless. I feel like Serbia/Georgia/Montenegro will split votes so they'll all miss out. Netherlands/Slovenia will be too weird to make it.

 

[burrito]

- I think it is rather obvious
- horribly catchy, very fun and how to put it... family-friendly (?) type of song. And I am pretty sure that it will fare further than many people would like it to
, , - outstanding and convincing ( I am actually more sure of qualifying than the other two)
- decent and fun enough to gain televotes.
- will do better with juries, but is good enough to gain a nice amount of televotes and therefore make it

The last one to pass through the semi will be probably because yall know why, but I secretly hope that people will see that this is really weak entry. Chances are slim, but if it happens I see advancing.