Winner predictions?

[aef]

By now, I'm not sure whether we'll see a close competition or a runaway winner, so it's even harder for me to name any clear favourites.

I wish for a thrilling evening with countries like at the top but I have the very strong feeling that there will be a big surprise?!? This year is so strange

 

[carl1]

At this moment in time, if I had to pick a winner, it would be easily. It is a complete package really.
Cant wait for the rehearsals, who will be this years The Common Linnets? There will be surprises for sure.

 

[Pawhlen]

By now, I'm not sure whether we'll see a close competition or a runaway winner, so it's even harder for me to name any clear favourites.

I wish for a thrilling evening with countries like at the top but I have the very strong feeling that there will be a big surprise?!? This year is so strange

Time will tell, if we look at the those three countries that is top 3 according to the odds, might have a little advantage since we get to perform twice (if we qualify for the final) while and have only one performance to convince the viewers

 

[Luki]

or 100% sure

 

[simonPL]

For me, the best songs this year are coming from Belgium and Russia.
And I also like Sweden, UK, Serbia, The Netherlands and Belarus.

I don't mind if anyone from those will win.

 

[ParadiseES]

I'm definitely putting my bet on

Not only it's a strong song, memorable after a first listening, suitable for an atractive TV show and we know the vocal performance will be perfect for sure. But also if we look at the favourites:

- Sweden, Norway and also Estonia. They will fight to get the votes from the same countries. All the Nordics and probably most of the Western countries. Sweden might stand out, because the song is a hit and can easily appeal to everyone, but I'm not sure if the fact that Sweden won so recently could play against them.

- Slovenia, while is not geographically near any of the above, their song will especially appeal to Central-Northern Europeans. So Slovenia will fight for the same votes than Sweden, Norway, Estonia.

- Russia and Azerbaijan will be high thanks to the former Soviet and also some Western jurors, because the songs are good and jury friendly. They probably have a guaranteed top-5, or close, but I can't see them getting enough unanimity.

- Italy has no opponent to get the 12 points from almost every country in Southern Europe and I can see it doing well in most Western-Central European and also Eastern countries.


So Italy is the most likely according to everything. Sweden could be a second choice in case something fails and I'm afraid of Australia because all the fuss. But the Australian song might sound like an American hit, but also something the European public would really ignore.

 

[Pawhlen]

I'm definitely putting my bet on

Not only it's a strong song, memorable after a first listening, suitable for an atractive TV show and we know the vocal performance will be perfect for sure. But also if we look at the favourites:

- Sweden, Norway and also Estonia. They will fight to get the votes from the same countries. All the Nordics and probably most of the Western countries. Sweden might stand out, because the song is a hit and can easily appeal to everyone, but I'm not sure if the fact that Sweden won so recently could play against them.

- Slovenia, while is not geographically near any of the above, their song will especially appeal to Central-Northern Europeans. So Slovenia will fight for the same votes than Sweden, Norway, Estonia.

- Russia and Azerbaijan will be high thanks to the former Soviet and also some Western jurors, because the songs are good and jury friendly. They probably have a guaranteed top-5, or close, but I can't see them getting enough unanimity.

- Italy has no opponent to get the 12 points from almost every country in Southern Europe and I can see it doing well in most Western-Central European and also Eastern countries.


So Italy is the most likely according to everything. Sweden could be a second choice in case something fails and I'm afraid of Australia because all the fuss. But the Australian song might sound like an American hit, but also something the European public would really ignore.

You should rather compare the same kind of genre songs to each other, not the countries. I mean, is not the only country in Southern Europe if you know what I mean. Here is what I would say instead:

and will fight for the ballad votes across Europe for example.

and can probably fight for the same kind of votes. Both will probably finish very high anyway, if we start to refuse voting for a good song because the "country has won so recently" we have a very huge problem, (I could have understand the thought though if the same country had won 4-5 times in a row and is favorite to win a 6th time)

and the same (The melodies is quite simular)

has no one that uses the same genre that can take votes from them, the thing that speakes against them is only one performance and that their genre has not been successful in the competition before.

There are things that speaks for and against all favorites but I still think takes it

 

[revallsay]

I have a feeling it wil be one of the countries which songs I hate: . I also hate and but I don't think they qualify. I also don't like but I wouldn't call it hate but still I wouldn't be happy if they won.

 

[ParadiseES]

You should rather compare the same kind of genre songs to each other, not the countries. I mean, is not the only country in Southern Europe if you know what I mean. Here is what I would say instead:

and will fight for the ballad votes across Europe for example.

and can probably fight for the same kind of votes. Both will probably finish very high anyway, if we start to refuse voting for a good song because the "country has won so recently" we have a very huge problem, (I could have understand the thought though if the same country had won 4-5 times in a row and is favorite to win a 6th time)

and the same (The melodies is quite simular)

has no one that uses the same genre that can take votes from them, the thing that speakes against them is only one performance and that their genre has not been successful in the competition before.

There are things that speaks for and against all favorites but I still think takes it

I did both, but has no oponent, geographically and style

 

[i anixi]

I did both, but has no oponent, geographically and style

I think the popera edge is not enough to set Italy's song that much apart from the likes of Armenia, Greece, France, Spain, the Czechs and so many others this year. People will hear yet another classic wailing number and they'll put it roughly down the same bag.

I enjoyed your geographic reasoning for form's sake, but I don't really believe it will work like that.

 

[GRE]

Now i am 100% sure that Italy wont win.

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

Im guessing Australia at this point.

 

[ParadiseES]

I think the popera edge is not enough to set Italy's song that much apart from the likes of Armenia, Greece, France, Spain, the Czechs and so many others this year. People will hear yet another classic wailing number and they'll put it roughly down the same bag.

I enjoyed your geographic reasoning for form's sake, but I don't really believe it will work like that.

It's not the popera. It's because the song is outstanding, unlike the rest of the ballads (don't know what's Spain doing in this group btw), most of them are far from memorable or good, not to say they're unbearable like Armenia.

 

[Pawhlen]

I guess that if wins, we will probably have ::na and competing next year, even if EBU reject them, they can point out and use "but is in and that´s not a part of Europe"

 

[i anixi]

It's not the popera. It's because the song is outstanding, unlike the rest of the ballads (don't know what's Spain doing in this group btw), most of them are far from memorable or good, not to say they're unbearable like Armenia.

Ok, but that's subjective then. Other people may not find it so outstanding. I always think of Uk's Blue when listening/watching Italy's Il Divo. They too were hyped and believed to be "outstanding" and they ended up by sounding ridiculous and looking unbelievably silly. True, they were a bit older, but for their looks I don't think they are making a better picture, save probably the one in the middle.

 

[GermanBango]

By the way, this is the Top 10 of the non-fans (5 people of different age and gender) I played all 40 songs to:

1. (49 points)
2. (40 points)
3. (27 points)
4. (22 points)
5. (19 points)
6. (18 points)
7. (15 points)
8. (14 points)
9. (13 points)
10. (11 points)

 

[Pawhlen]

By the way, this is the Top 10 of the non-fans (5 people of different age and gender) I played all 40 songs to:

1. (49 points)
2. (40 points)
3. (27 points)
4. (22 points)
5. (19 points)
6. (18 points)
7. (15 points)
8. (14 points)
9. (13 points)
10. (11 points)

Interesting

 

[GermanBango]

Interesting

I should mention that they only heard the songs - no videos.

 

[ROXY]

it will come down to Sweden vs Australia, and whose singer can sing better live with a strong voice. My money is on Australia just because it's Australia. And it's a good song. Strewth!!

 

[i anixi]

I should mention that they only heard the songs - no videos.

I understand the results have been very accurate to date, but I'd say the visuals are a very important piece and as they're missing... I'm not sure. I find it strange that they included Spain, and as a runner up at that, given all the other choices they've made.
I guess it's because they haven't seen the tiger