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Winner predictions?

Who will win ESC 2015 in Vienna?

  • DENMARK

    2 0.6%
  • HUNGARY

    1 0.3%
  • SERBIA

    3 0.9%
  • FYR MACEDONIA

    1 0.3%
  • MOLDOVA

    0 0.0%
  • ALBANIA

    8 2.5%
  • ESTONIA

    52 16.5%
  • ARMENIA

    0 0.0%
  • BELGIUM

    26 8.2%
  • GREECE

    1 0.3%
  • GEORGIA

    3 0.9%
  • FINLAND

    4 1.3%
  • RUSSIA

    16 5.1%
  • THE NETHERLANDS

    5 1.6%
  • BELARUS

    0 0.0%
  • ROMANIA

    1 0.3%
  • AUSTRIA

    3 0.9%
  • FRANCE

    1 0.3%
  • SPAIN

    9 2.8%
  • MONTENEGRO

    0 0.0%
  • PORTUGAL

    1 0.3%
  • MALTA

    1 0.3%
  • LATVIA

    7 2.2%
  • AZERBAIJAN

    3 0.9%
  • CYPRUS

    1 0.3%
  • SLOVENIA

    19 6.0%
  • CZECH REPUBLIC

    1 0.3%
  • ICELAND

    2 0.6%
  • SAN MARINO

    0 0.0%
  • IRELAND

    0 0.0%
  • POLAND

    2 0.6%
  • LITHUANIA

    1 0.3%
  • SWEDEN

    55 17.4%
  • SWITZERLAND

    1 0.3%
  • NORWAY

    5 1.6%
  • ISRAEL

    4 1.3%
  • UNITED KINGDOM

    7 2.2%
  • AUSTRALIA

    14 4.4%
  • ITALY

    53 16.8%
  • GERMANY

    3 0.9%

  • Total voters
    316

RainyWoods

Croak-kay
Joined
February 9, 2012
Posts
25,693
Location
London
At the moment I still think it is very open..

Up the front
:se::ee::au::no:

Dark horses
:lv::es::ie::al::mt:

Snipers
:ru::fi:


Will these songs all fill the top 10? Probably not, some are bound to fall but at this moment in time I can imagine them all being able to pull the win off, one way or another. The up front ones are obvious. They are all favourites at the moment and I wouldn't argue with the possibility of any of them winning, except for Italy which I have purposefully excluded as I don't believe they'll be able to do it. Every contest has it's dark horses that come from nowhere to do well. Spain is really striking me as a winning song recently, there isn't anything else as grand this year with the same sense of scale. I've been championing Malta as a winner since day one and still haven't jumped off what seems to many like a sinking ship. I'm confident that the odds on this are gonna start improving when the rehearsals begin. I think Amber can do it. Ireland I feel have this years song that everyone overlooks but goes on to do very well. It's sincere and has charm to it. Surprise top 3? Albania is one of the best pop songs this year, very radio friendly and has Elhaida's massive voice behind it. It will appeal to all countries. As for Latvia, well if you were to tell me to pick just one song I think is gonna win, it would still be "Love Injected". I strongly believe in this song and it's power to impress and move people. The snipers are the two that have the potential to cause a lot of upset. Russia came 5th with the very unexciting Dina. With no clear runaway winners this year, I think it could be incredibly possible for Russia to win with what is essentially the same song again, sung by an incredibly pretty and famous artist. Finland could go either way. I predict they'll win the overall public vote. It all rests in the hands of the jury whether they'll ruin it for them or not. I've noticeably excluded Slovenia. I would love nothing more than for them to win but it's something I sadly can't see happening. In fact, I envision them just missing the top 10. I hope i'm proved wrong.
 

RainyWoods

Croak-kay
Joined
February 9, 2012
Posts
25,693
Location
London
^Many of those you mentioned up there might struggle to qualify tbh :p

Of the countries i've mentioned, I personally think Ireland is the only one that faces any real danger as they have a horrendous draw in their semi. I think there is something about it that's going to be appealing though to a lot of people. Just young Molly alone with her piano singing a pleasant, gentle song. With the right staging and camera work I think it will be this years surprise. It could easily go just as wrong for her though.

This year is so tight though, I can imagine pretty much anyone qualifying to the final. However, i'm confident in all the songs I mentioned reaching the final. The lack of fan interest in Malta scares me a bit as I thought it would be something fans would be strongly getting behind, but I believe the jury at the very least will go crazy for it. "Warrior" did after all receive every 12 possible from the international juries in it's National Final.
 

Pawhlen

Active member
Joined
June 9, 2013
Posts
2,980
Location
Eksjö
:fi: chances of qualifying for the final is in the hands of the juries. The televotes will have them in the final for sure
 

i anixi

Well-known member
Joined
March 20, 2011
Posts
2,291
I'm convinced at this point that Sweden will do it and it will not be because of the staging (alone). Song is an obvious stand out from the ballad crowd, yet it is anything but cheap as some have been suggesting.

Chorus is catchy and it repeats itself as choruses will, but details have been carefully taken care of and there's always a litle something to be added each time in a well crafted, diverse narrative to form the perfect build up. Still, it is not chorus alone, song itself is intimate and interesting and prepares you for what's next and the bridge is worth millions.

Lyrics are great and in place, they are cryptic enough so as to sound vaguely mysterious and not in your face but they are not inaccessible so they would sound pretentious.

Singer is handsome, but not too handsome and more importantly, he's mega charismatic and oozes energy. It will not be possible to turn your eyes from the tv when he will be in it.

Then of course, there's the choreographed projection staging that will have every child, its parents and their parents talking for the next hour. Nobody is gonna forget it and many are gonna vote for it. Juries will love it too, what's not to like? They're not known to go for the non mainstream stuff anyway and they're sure able to recognize the huge amount of work involved in it.

This is a cracker of a number and should do a Rybak, getting 12s from every point of Europe and beyond (oceania, I mean), unless a disaster happens and something goes horribly horribly wrong.

Or unless Sweden doesn't want to win again so soon. But given the enormous amount of trouble they put themselves through, I'm guessing they won't really mind :)
They deserve, after and above all.
 

GermanBango

Well-known member
Joined
April 13, 2012
Posts
5,413
Location
Hannover
I'm convinced at this point that Sweden will do it and it will not be because of the staging (alone). Song is an obvious stand out from the ballad crowd, yet it is anything but cheap as some have been suggesting.

Chorus is catchy and it repeats itself as choruses will, but details have been carefully taken care of and there's always a litle something to be added each time in a well crafted, diverse narrative to form the perfect build up. Still, it is not chorus alone, song itself is intimate and interesting and prepares you for what's next and the bridge is worth millions.

Lyrics are great and in place, they are cryptic enough so as to sound vaguely mysterious and not in your face but they are not inaccessible so they would sound pretentious.

Singer is handsome, but not too handsome and more importantly, he's mega charismatic and oozes energy. It will not be possible to turn your eyes from the tv when he will be in it.

Then of course, there's the choreographed projection staging that will have every child, its parents and their parents talking for the next hour. Nobody is gonna forget it and many are gonna vote for it. Juries will love it too, what's not to like? They're not known to go for the non mainstream stuff anyway and they're sure able to recognize the huge amount of work involved in it.

This is a cracker of a number and should do a Rybak, getting 12s from every point of Europe and beyond (oceania, I mean), unless a disaster happens and something goes horribly horribly wrong.

Or unless Sweden doesn't want to win again so soon. But given the enormous amount of trouble they put themselves through, I'm guessing they won't really mind :)
They deserve, after and above all.

OMG I'm not alone in this world - I already thought I'm crazy :lol:
 

GermanBango

Well-known member
Joined
April 13, 2012
Posts
5,413
Location
Hannover
I appreciate that you and i anixi really like our song but if we win (I still doubt that) it will surely not be a "Rybak" one. This year is gonna be very tight

Actually this way of thinking doesn't really come from my personal love for the song alone. It's more about facts - Those who count are not the fans but the average people. They will hear/see the songs/performances for the first time that night and I feel like Sweden is going to be very impressive for a vast majority.
As I said before, I played all the songs to 6 non-fans of different age, gender and taste and 5 of them said that Sweden would be their winner. (and they only heard the song - no video) In recent years they were very reliable oracles....:lol:
In 2014 their winner was :nl: - in 2013 :dk: - in 2012 :se: - in 2011 :az:
 

Pawhlen

Active member
Joined
June 9, 2013
Posts
2,980
Location
Eksjö
Actually this way of thinking doesn't really come from my personal love for the song alone. It's more about facts - Those who count are not the fans but the average people. They will hear/see the songs/performances for the first time that night and I feel like Sweden is going to be very impressive for a vast majority.
As I said before, I played all the songs to 6 non-fans of different age, gender and taste and 5 of them said that Sweden would be their winner. (and they only heard the song - no video) In recent years they were very reliable oracles....:lol:
In 2014 their winner was :nl: - in 2013 :dk: - in 2012 :se: - in 2011 :az:
they must be really psychic people (even though they had the wrong Winner last year) ;)
 

GermanBango

Well-known member
Joined
April 13, 2012
Posts
5,413
Location
Hannover
they must be really psychic people (even though they had the wrong Winner last year) ;)

Yes, they are lovely - I should bet on their favorite every year :lol:
Last year was an exception (for now) but they named the Netherlands when most of the fans still thought they would struggle to qualify. They had Conchita on #6 - so it's not that far away :cool:
 

Pawhlen

Active member
Joined
June 9, 2013
Posts
2,980
Location
Eksjö
I'm not judging you :) I would not have expected it the be a clear winner for some ;)

What is the favourite song of the person who didn't put :se: first? :)
I can say that I myself had :az: high that year but honestly I didn´t thought it would win
 

GermanBango

Well-known member
Joined
April 13, 2012
Posts
5,413
Location
Hannover
I'm not judging you :) I would not have expected it the be a clear winner for some ;)

What is the favourite song of the person who didn't put :se: first? :)

:es: actually :lol:

OMG my 1000. post in this forum - now I feel old :D
 

Pawhlen

Active member
Joined
June 9, 2013
Posts
2,980
Location
Eksjö
By the looks of the odds, :ee: is falling behind.

:se:, :it: and :au: are very close to each other, this can be a real thriller
 
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