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Televotes vs. Juries - Your guess

prebis

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February 10, 2012
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Finlands jury:

Sweden 12 p.
Estonia 10 p.
Denmark 8 p.
Spain 7 p.
Russia 6 p.
Iceland 5 p.
France 4 p.
Germany 3 p.
Albania 2 p.
Norway 1p.
 

rajo

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Finlands jury:

Sweden 12 p.
Estonia 10 p.
Denmark 8 p.
Spain 7 p.
Russia 6 p.
Iceland 5 p.
France 4 p.
Germany 3 p.
Albania 2 p.
Norway 1p.


Okay, here is my analysis based on an Excel algorithm (I was wrong in the first place).

The Finnish televote:

12 - Sweden
10 - Russia / Estonia
08 - Russia / Estonia
07 - Ireland
06 - Albania
05 - Iceland / Serbia
04 - Iceland / Serbia
03 - ????
02 - ???? / Germany / Norway
01 - ???? / Germany / France / Norway
00 - ???? / France / Norway / Spain / Denmark

We don't know who got the 3 points, because 3 points from televote was not enough to secure the combined vote.
 

FallenAngelII

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There is a huge disagree between jury and televote, when Russia and Azerbaijan score so high in the combined vote, and Norway's five points from juries (surprisingly enough) got wiped off. It also indicates that Cyprus was not a televote favourite but rather a jury favourite....
I say "Thank Goddess for the Israeli televoters".
I think that Albania was the first on jury ranking, and is still possible(If Albania would have let's say 240 and Sweden 220 and televoting Albania 100, Sweden 200+ is possible that Sweden been second in the jury to win the contest, remember last year !)
Yes, but Azerbaijan won by a small margin last year while Sweden won by a huge margin this year. We most probably won both votes.

I find it hard to believe that Sweden is a jury favorite, and not televote. I thought it was the opposite.. Smells fishy :p
Or maybe we were both. And we've only received a single split vote sofar. Clearly, a single split vote indicates shennanigans for Sweden!
 

Matt

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I'm confident that Sweden won both the televote and the jury vote. However the margin to Russia is significantly lower in the televote than with the juries.
 

ayzelto

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I'm confident that Sweden won both the televote and the jury vote. However the margin to Russia is significantly lower in the televote than with the juries.

I agree. There was a huge margin between Sweden and Russia in the final voting, which means that it's 100% sure that Sweden won in the two of them.
 

CC92

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I do not think it is certain at all Sweden was really Europe's favourite. The margin between Russia and Sweden in the 'combined' score was 113 points, so if the 'jury' voting added 57 points to Euphoria's sum and detracted the same amount from Russia the winner would change. The 'Sweden boost' could also come off when an equally high score was given from both constituencies (e.g. 315 + 315 = 372) considering that past winners all had higher 'combined' numbers than their actual jury/televote averages were (2009: 378 + 307 = 387, 2010: 243 + 187 = 246, 2011: 223 + 185 = 221). Then Russia had to lose about 57 points which would mean an average loss of 1.39 points per national broadcaster. That being said, I could imagine both Russia and Sweden as the actual public choice. And gosh, how much it pisses me off awfully cowardly EBU is still hiding these facts.:?
 

Trece

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2009: 378 + 307 = 387, 2010: 243 + 187 = 246, 2011: 223 + 185 = 221

:eek: It's like they are counted?

I think that Sweden has won a jury, but with a small margin, because of her last rehearsal they could remove the marks (yes, she was not guilty but in the jury may be inadequate people)
 

doctormalisimo

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:eek: It's like they are counted?

I think that Sweden has won a jury, but with a small margin, because of her last rehearsal they could remove the marks (yes, she was not guilty but in the jury may be inadequate people)
nah, she won the jury vote by a big margin. It was the televote where it was closer.
 

drhierbas

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Great to hear that the voting probably is skewed with bought juries and massive texting in countries with low population. Had a feeling on that one. They really should throw Azerbaijan the hell out of this competition, why is it there in the first place? Cyprus should be voting with Greece and San Marino with Italy and I really hope Italy leaves EBU again after giving Loreen 0 points.
 

A-lister

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^
EBU won't throw out Azerbaijan, they've been acting fishy from day one almost, but cash is king.
 

CC92

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NDR (Germany):

Final:

12 Sweden
10 Estonia
08 Iceland
07 Denmark
06 Albania
05 Serbia
04 Bosnia and Herzegovina
03 Spain
02 Italy
01 Ireland

Second Semi-Final:

12 Sweden
10 Estonia
08 Slovenia
07 Serbia
06 Netherlands
05 Bosnia and Herzegovina
04 Slovakia
03 Croatia
02 Malta
01 Portugal
 

CC92

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NDR (Germany):

Final:

12 Sweden
10 Estonia
08 Iceland
07 Denmark
06 Albania
05 Serbia
04 Bosnia and Herzegovina
03 Spain
02 Italy
01 Ireland

Second Semi-Final:

12 Sweden
10 Estonia
08 Slovenia
07 Serbia
06 Netherlands
05 Bosnia and Herzegovina
04 Slovakia
03 Croatia
02 Malta
01 Portugal

So in the final we voted like this:

12 Turkey
10 Russian Federation
08 Serbia
07 Sweden
06 Greece
05 Italy
04 Albania
03 Denmark
02 ? (not Estonia or Iceland)
01 ? (not Estonia)
 

Marie Jane

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Portuguese jury (2nd semifinal):

12: Estonia
10: Serbia
08: Bosnia&Herzegovina
07: Slovakia
06: Sweden
05: Georgia
04: Croatia
03: Malta
02: Belarus
01: Slovenia


Final:

12: Spain
10: Germany
08: Estonia
07: Serbia
06: Italy
05: Bosnia&Herzegovina
04: France
03: Albania
02: Iceland
01: Russia

No points for Sweden, well, i was expecting that... :?
 

CC92

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Portuguese jury (2nd semifinal):

12: Estonia
10: Serbia
08: Bosnia&Herzegovina
07: Slovakia
06: Sweden
05: Georgia
04: Croatia
03: Malta
02: Belarus
01: Slovenia


Final:

12: Spain
10: Germany
08: Estonia
07: Serbia
06: Italy
05: Bosnia&Herzegovina
04: France
03: Albania
02: Iceland
01: Russia

No points for Sweden, well, i was expecting that... :?

Do you have their final points, too?
 

rajo

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German televote Semifinal (calculated)

12 - Turkey
10 - Sweden / Serbia
08 - Sweden / Serbia
07 - Netherlands
06 - Bosnia and Herzegovina
05 - Portugal
04 - Bulgaria
03 - Estonia
02 - Slovenia
01 - Croatia
00 - Slovakia, Malta
 

rajo

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German televote Final (calculated)


12 - Turkey
10 - Russia
08 - Serbia
07 - Sweden
06 - Greece
05 - Italy
04 - Albania
03 - Denmark
02 - ???
01 - ???
00 - Estonia
 

rajo

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Portuguese televote Semifinal (calculated)

12 - Sweden
10 - Lithuania
08 - Bulgaria
07 - Estonia
06 - Norway
05 - Ukraine
between 01 and 04 - Serbia
00 - Bosnia and Hercegovina, Slovakia, Georgia, Croatia
 

rajo

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Portuguese televote Final (calculated)


12 - Spain / Russia
10 - Russia / Spain
08 - Moldova
07 - Romania
06 - Sweden
05 - Ukraine
04 - Germany
03 - ???
02 - Estonia
01 - Serbia
00 - Bosnia and Hercegovina, Italy, France, Slovenia, Iceland
 
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