Semi 1: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[ati0111]

My prediction before the rehearsals:
1.Israel 2.Bulgaria 3.Estonia 4.Greece 5.Cyprus 6.Austria 7.Czech Republic 8.Belgium 9.Azerbaijan 10.Finland
11.Albania 12.Armenia 13.FYR Macedonia 14.Switzerland 15.Lithuania 16.Belarus 17.Croatia 18.Ireland 19.Iceland

After rehearsals: 1.Estonia 2.Cyprus 3.Israel 4.Bulgaria 5.Czech Republic 6.Austria 7.Finland 8.Lithuania 9.Azerbaijan 10.Greece
11.Armenia 12.Albania 13.Croatia 14.Belgium 15.Switzerland 16.Belarus 17.Ireland 18.FYR Macedonia 19.Iceland

 

[LalehForWD]

Voted:
Aisel - X My Heart
Sennek - A Matter Of Time
Equinox - Bones
Elina Netsayeva - La Forza
Saara Aalto - Monsters
Ryan Shaughnessy - Together
Netta - Toy
Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
Eleni Foureira - Fuego

Bolds are top 3

edit:
lol already I'd say Gianna Terzi instead of Ireland most likely

After the rehearsals, my predictions are standing with the exception of Gianna Terzi pushing Ireland out as stated above. I believe the three bolds are top 3 in this semi as well as in the final. I don't think Armenia or Belarus will make it, nor will Croatia.

Netta - Toy
Equinox - Bones
Elina Netsayeva - La Forza
Aisel - X My Heart
Sennek - A Matter Of Time
Saara Aalto - Monsters
Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
Eleni Foureira - Fuego
Gianna Terzi - Oneiro

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Ryan Shaughnessy - Together

Bolds are top 3, no other ranking applied

 

[Himan]

It feels like, we can all predict 8, but my goal is predicting 10. That's really hard. But now, I'm just trying.








These are almost always named, top 6 in the bookies. Almost a no-brainer, only Greece is sometimes out, but I still believe in bookies, diaspora, order in final and my own love for that song.

The question, is it possible to find the weird tenth spot? The Finland of 2018?

often in top ten, qualifies surprisingly often, also in the bookies top ten.

here starts the borderline i guess, I really think I am right three out of three. They are 11th in the bookies, but they don't have a bad song, they always qualify. Don't have the worst spot.

Well, I never had this song in my qualifiers, but that was mostly because I didn't liked it. But the bookmakers put it in the top 10. I see why people can like it. Also not a lot of men are in this list. They have a good position in the order. I have overlooked it, but this is not about my preference. This is about predicting. It probably qualifies.

But the horror is in the details can we select all 10 songs that will qualify for the final. My preference says Albania, but bookies, diaspora, order say no. So Albania is out. Quite harsh if you ask me. I also like Belgium, bookies also say so but they have a bad draw and bookies say tenth, and the eleventh is already through in this prediction. And than diaspora, UK, Iceland, Estonia? Well Netherlands would have given 20 points or so, but they are not in this sf. Than Finland, yes Finland will be the Finland of 2018 they have a good draw, but I don't really like the song, the bookies say no, and also diaspora...
Well Iceland is an easy no, just after the rehearsals Macedonia is also a no. Ireland also, Switzerland have hard times in the bookies. Croatia is nothing really special in this year another woman with a relative generic song. And than Belarus, a really nice gimmick, but probably on the bad way but he is a man, but he is low on my loving list, but he has a pretty good order, but just out of top ten in the bookies. So, really divisive, but no.

the tenth song is bookies say yes, I say yes, order no, diaspora no. It's hard, but this kind of song is not done by any other country in this semi, so chances are great.

 

[nofuxCZ]

 

[Trece]

After rehearsals. Still not sure between Austria and Armenia but for prediction chose then first
Belarus might do a surprise qualifier from 1st half

Israel
Cyprus
Greece
Estonia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Azerbaijan
Finland
Belarus
Austria

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

I think:

 

[Schlagerman1]

*Me after trying to make a prediction for the first semifinal after hearing how the jury rehearsal went*

(will probably though have a guess to tomorrow)

 

[Leydan]

In Random order:

Mikolas Josef - Lie to Me
Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
Equinox - Bones
Aisel - X My Heart
Saara Aalto - Monsters
Netta - Toy
Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
Eleni Foureira -Fuego
Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou

Easily also though.

 

[lavieenrose]

Okay, here are the ten:

I guess it *could* get ugly for them, but things have to be a bit convoluted


Borderline +


Borderline -


Count them out at your own risk


In orbit around Saturn


I am doing no shortage of egotistical, crazy $#!+ with these predictions to save songs I like over songs I don't. over and is probably the most hypocritical split from my "PREDICTIONS ≠ VOTES" chestnut. The performance just feels more right than those other two. and 's placements in relatively safe categories are two other bits of that. I'm throwing the somewhat negative responses to their rehearsals odds- and press-wise to the wind in favor of my own, very positive impressions of their rehearsals. I do like but am not getting qualifier vibes from it at the moment. It could still happen. A boffo jury score from could very well be enough to get in as well. This is going to be an exciting semi.

 

[DaFlo]

Final prediction from me:



could steal a spot.

Only three male acts going through seems unlikely tho ._.

 

[midnightsun]

Without having seen the latest rehearsals I‘d say

Azerbaijan
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Estonia
Greece
Israel
Ireland
Austria
Czech Republic

Yes, there will be a few surprises!

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

Really tough to make a prediction. I look at the participants and is so unfair to some memorable songs that in second semi final would pass comfortably...but this tuesday may very well end up going home early.

Anyway, here we go:

 

[anto475]

 

[esc87fan]

On the cliff edge: Armenia and Azerbaijan. For the former, no doubt Sevak has a great voice but I'm not sure the song will catch on with people. For the latter, again the song does not fit Aisel's comfort zone and technical problems hampered her jury performance. I also think Greece could be in the danger zone as well

The Surprise Qualifier: Switzerland. The Swiss team actually came up with staging that fit the song, and Zibbz have been solid through all their rehearsals up to this point with mostly positive feedback from fans and media. The crowd loved them in the jury performance, and now could be literally on the threshold of qualification with another solid performance in the live show on Tuesday - especially if the audience responds to Coco's call toward "all who have been hurt to throw their hands in the air". That moment could really resonate with the televoters and give it the push it needs into the top 10

 

[QwaarJet]

OK, obviously waited until after jury rehearsals for this.

Certain qualifiers :

Cyprus
Estonia
Czech Republic

Likely qualifiers :

Lithuania
Israel
Bulgaria
Greece
Armenia

Borderline :

Azerbaijan
Belgium
Austria
Finland
Switzerland
Ireland

Out :

Iceland
Albania
Belarus
Macedonia
Croatia

Very hard to nail down the borderlines, but here is my final list of qualifiers :

Cyprus
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Israel
Estonia
Armenia
Greece
Bulgaria
Finland
Azerbaijan

 

[iGotNoiPad]

90% confident will qualify: Estonia, Cyprus, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic

70%: Armenia, Greece

50% (Borderline Qualifiers): Belgium, Finland, Austria, Azerbaijan, Albania, Belarus, Switzerland, Lithuania

Final Predictions: Estonia, Cyprus, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Armenia, Greece, Belgium, Finland, Austria

 

[Jacketh]

Here is how I think it'll finish.

1. Estonia
2. Cyprus.
3. Bulgaria.
4. Armenia.
5. Czech Republic
6. Israel
7. Greece.
8. Austria.
9. Belarus.
10. Lithuania.

Pretty close between Estonia and Cyprus at the top. I think Estonia will do surprisingly well with the Juries, and I think La Forza gets more votes in the 35+ bracket than Cyprus.

Bulgaria will do particularly well with the juries, but still have a good televote.

Armenia I think will be the dark horse of this semi. Juries will rank it highly, and there will be a lot of support over the Eastern/Central bloc for it I reckon.

Israel and Czech Republic won't do in the televote as people are expecting. Israel isn't even that popular among the ESC gays anymore - it really isn't going to translate into anything for the average voter if that is the case. The first thirty seconds will let it down. As much as we all love the clucking, juries won't be impressed, and many at home will get a good WTF out of it and might even enjoy it, but will prefer other songs. For Czech Republic, it'll do respectable on both.

The others are just a combination of doing well on both jury + televote. I think we'll see potentially a few songs tomorrow that do reasonably well with the televote but the juries kill. Switzerland and Finland in particularly I think they'll hurt.

 

[LalehForWD]

...
Pretty close between Estonia and Cyprus at the top. I think Estonia will do surprisingly well with the Juries, and I think La Forza gets more votes in the 35+ bracket than Cyprus.
...

Isn't it the other way around regarding Fuego? Helena Paparizou fans getting excited on familiar sounds. Opera is indeed often an acquired taste so naturally will go better with age. Definitely two different groups of viewers though. Question is, what is left for the kids?

 

[JamieBrown]

I'd like to make one bold predicition, so here it is...

Top 10











Israel might be labelled to loud and noisy after everyone got carried away by Lithuania (the live reactions were surprisingly well, I don't feel the live vocals of Czechia are strong enough too convince the juries and Greece has just to be left out, due to running order, live vocals and the 10 qualifiers all are delivering for at least one voting success

Talk about it

 

[0scar]

For now I think..



The only ones I think that are out are
(unfortunately)

are borderline qualifiers and can replace either