Semi 1: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[Ezio]

Update:

 

[aef]

Update:

Come on, where do you have that drama from, concerning

Why on earth should or qualify, is also very unlikely, is totally overrated - it has such a dull staging!

 

[Hele.]

I don’t think numbers and statistics will be the crux of why some countries qualify and others won’t. 2017 was a year full of smashing records and statistics. Portugal’s first win, Portugal winning with the most points ever, Bulgaria and Moldova cracking top 3, etc. There’s no reason why 2018 can’t be similar.

I think there are so many people out there who are too entangled in statistics. It's fine, interesting and informative once in a while, but people put too much weight on it and can get out of touch with what's currently going on and the essence of it.

Exactly. Statistics are helpful to explain patterns of data from the past but aren't to be used for predictive purposes.

First of all, I really do not want to argue or "fight" in discussions but I feel a bit wrongly interpreted of your comments and that you missed all main point of that statistical post and this makes me feel a bit bad. So I feel need to clearly state some things and I hope you will understand in good intentionally and not with such misinterpretations.
So, If I offered statistical point of view that doesn't mean I think it is only determinante of one song success! Honestly, I'm a bit shocked that there are immediately derivatived straightforward conclusions about my opinion like it is only factor that I put importance to.
Of course statistics is more for fun and curiosity. It is not at all most important or determinating factor if song will qualify or not or if will make success. (Reason) it is, of course, whole entry including song quality, artist and staging and overall package about delivering it. If it is high quality, there are high chances, no matter what, it will make success.

But in situation where we have, as many think, blood battle in SF1 by songs quality (so many good songs, entries, performances), I was wondering in my statistical post if there will be role played by statistics (actually if there will be important role played by draw). You can call it statistics, you can call it lucky or whatever. But maybe you can call it "this song is good enough to overcome it no matter what".
As I posted clear evidence, there have been 20 semifinals since 2008! 20! In 20 cases there has never been situation when more songs from first half of SF qualified that more songs from second half! Never! While there have been many cases in favor of second half of SF! This is fact! You can call it fact, you can call it statistics or you can call it (non) coincidence! But I do not think that in all those years, during 20 semifinals in which preformed hundreds of songs, that in every of those 20 SFs every time songs from second half were better (or equal) and from first half never!
We all know, we can read posts here, in threads or comments on other websites and even reviews by famous esc journalists, followers. Nobody is sure who will qualify as there are so many potential candidates like never before!
All I wanted in my statistical post is to offer another point of view where we do not only base on songs, artists, stagings and all things that actually matter (and I kinda feel a bit dumb that I have to point out this and highlight it) but that maybe draw will play (non) significant role. Through all post I'm wondering, I'm trying to see this perspective! As yeah, obviously some records will be broken! Maybe Azerbaijan won't qualify for the first time, maybe Czech Republic will, maybe for the first time in history more songs from first half will qualify than from second half, maybe there will be some other unknown record! Yeah, something likely will happen for the first time and I'm wondering what? It is difficult for me to see less qualifiers from first half as well...even 5 looks small to me as there are many strong entries! So I just have been wondering what will be that determinating factor and if draw will play role in it!

As "prove" for my wondering and unsure I will cite myself and whole point of that post

Hmm...but who knows, maybe history will change and for first time there will be more songs from first half to go to final than from second half?

And that has been whole point of my statistical post and NOT
1) that I wanted to say that statistics the crux of why some countries qualify and others won’t
2) to put too much weight on statistics and lose touch with reality
3) generally, there are statistics methods that are used for predictive purposes but I agree it is should not be used (as factor of high performance) like that in esc

 

[Kitakaze]

This feels like the trickiest semi to predict in memory. Thinking:

Safe
1. Israel
2. Estonia
3. Cyprus
4. Czech Republic

Likely

5. Bulgaria
6. Austria

Borderline
7. Lithuania
8. Greece
9. Finland
10. Azerbaijan

11. Belgium
12. Armenia
13. Belarus
14. Croatia

Unlikely
15. Switzerland
16. Albania
17. Ireland
18. FYR Macedonia

Out
19. Iceland

That would mean 7 female solo acts going through and only 2 male solo acts. So I could somewhat foresee a scenario whereby either (or both) Armenia or Belarus sneak through over Azerbaijan, Finland or Greece to balance that out. I think we are looking at 6 qualifiers from the first half either way though.

I'm also finding it particularly difficult to gauge how well Greece and Belgium will do, given the disparity between their popularity in the ESC bubble and the major red flags with their rehearsals. With the jury vote being so unpredictable though, I'm giving Greece the benefit of the doubt for now by factoring in the televote- the diaspora and their friends (Cyprus, UK, Albania) which Belgium can't rely on, despite having arguably a more broadly appealing song. I think Sennek's vocals and her early position in the draw before a string of strong, memorable songs may just prove to be one too many an obstacle to overcome.

 

[Ezio]

I don't think it is likely that 7 female solo acts go through. These are the acts that are usually overhyped by fans in advance and overlooked by voters at the actual event.

 

[Nemesis]

I'm just praying that Albania gets a spot, totally underrated

 

[Kitakaze]

I don't think it is likely that 7 female solo acts go through. These are the acts that are usually overhyped by fans in advance and overlooked by voters at the actual event.

As I said that's why I could foresee Armenia or maybe Belarus going through in place of one of the females- Greece, Azerbaijan, Finland or Lithuania. I personally don't see Ireland or Albania generating enough support to come close. Iceland are obviously out of contention. So there's likely going to be 6 females and only 3 or 4 male solo qualifers at most.

 

[Ezio]

I think from the female acts endangered the most are: Finland (all over the place), Belgium (sleepy and bit creepy), Greece (boring and no one gets it), Croatia (just a diva standing tall like so many times before), Azerbaijan (borderlined before, generic song and no allies)

I see Lithuania in the final, because she has a sweetness and emotionality that sells a lot of votes, I guess. I even think Lithuania is safer than Estonia.

 

[Ezio]

I forgot to mention Israel. I think it will go through, but I don't think it is 100% safe. The staging does not look intriguing at all and I miss the energy from the music video. The dancers are obnoxious and bizarre on stage. In 2014, Mei played the angry female and failed, albeit being the favourite before the semifinal. This impression reminds me a lot of Mei's failure.

Mei Finegold is the perfect example for so many female acts traded highly and eventually failing badly.

 

[Jounah]

 

[A-lister]

In alphabetical order, these are the entries I predict will qualify:



...the tenth one I can't predict really, I would like it to be , but I think it will be either , or , personally I would prefer not to qualify, but I think juries will boost it into the final.

 

[94ayd]

So far:

I'm more confident in and less confident in right now, but I don't see how more than half of the non-qualifiers (, , , & ) could possibly be male soloits.

 

[tsegaye]

Okey, now I have these 10 as qualfiers (if Greece staging is turning out well after tomorrow's rehearsal after all).

- Televote top 3 will secure its qualification.
- Jury winner.
- High up with both juries and televote, maybe the televote winner.
- High up with both, around 4th/5th
- Can't see juries not going for this one, probably a jury top 3 entry and that will be enough.
- Televoters will love this and it closes the show, may be a televoting top 3.
- In the top 10 with both juries and televoters.
- Will probably place within the top 10 in both.
- This one has grown a lot for me (not my opinions about it, just my opinion of its chances). I think both juries and televoters will rank this top 10.

The last place is the hard one for me. It's either or . Right now I'd have to say
- The juries will probably rank this top 5, but it will be close with both and .

 

[GermanBango]

Last prediction before the show ... I think the qualifiers will be ...
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

 

[Trece]

I'm more confident in and less confident in right now, but I don't see how more than half of the non-qualifiers (, , , & ) could possibly be male soloits.

Gianiluca approves

 

[aef]

I'm more confident in and less confident in right now, but I don't see how more than half of the non-qualifiers (, , , & ) could possibly be male soloits.

In my opinion could easily be a NQ, for now I'd say it's a borderline qualifier... Her staging is a huge letdown, it's quite on 2015 level as I said before... (Or even worse than that) + The song is overhyped though I'm still liking it

is safe in my opinion but of course I might be a little biased on that one!

After a long time I'm also trying to do another prediction - I'll do the last one after the live show. My prediction with range of placement:
1.
2.-4.
2.-4.
2.-4-
5.-6.
5.-6.
7.-10. (I have serious doubts about it but lets wait and see)
7.-10.
7.-10. (I'm hoping for though)
7.-10. (I can totally see this outside the semi top 10 in the current rehearsal state but I think they'll make it again...)

 

[JSSArcos]

I think the qualifiers will be ...



Can also -

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I haven't listened to all the songs in full yet. (only really getting into this years Eurovision now) I've listened to a recap a few times though so I have a vague idea at least...



Finland is kind of borderline though. It strikes me as the kind of song that gets hyped up a lot, then flops and gets called an injustice of Eurovision.

Still sticking by this for the most part. Though I think Belgium might be more of a borderline now because of the rehearsals. Also I think Austria might get through instead of Finland. So...




With having outside chances.

 

[burrito]

are the ones I'm sure of

Other ones are probably and , would expect too

As for the remaining two I've got no idea. is probably going to make it, rehearsals don't look too good but Blanche was quite hopeless at first too. I'd bet on to take the last spot, although I really really really hope that is going to sneak through - and it's not impossible, but I guess and stand a better chance. I don't see advancing (although it's not a bad entry at all), neither or (too much of a filler, it's very much in the same type as Running on Air), is pretty dissapointing. However is the only one that stands virtually no chance to pass. Idk really, this semi is much harder to predict than the second one

 

[joao]

Its a little bit though but I think the top 10 will be:



The last one will be either or

I honestly think Finland has no chances of getting to the final. Everything looks ... strange :/

This semi is really, really hard. So many good songs are going to get lost on the way...