Semi 1: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[0scar]

After first rehearsals, I'd say


Finland and Belgium surprise NQ, Switzerland surprise Q. Croatia will end up close to qualifying too.

 

[94ayd]

So far:

 

[Jukica]

My prediction after the rehearsals:
(assuming it's not moving to semi 2)

I think that (even thought it's my 2018 fave) and will be shock non-qualifiers will probably fight with and maybe 1-2 more songs for qualification, also I don't think that will win the semi.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

 

[GlamSIMorous]

My prediction:











My wish:











Wouldnt mind these too (I hate making a Top 10):

 

[Ana Raquel]

- going well on jury, good staging
- the ott act we all wanted
- kinda obvious for the hype
- even with changes bc of his health he'll manage to pull it off
- shock qualifier because of the staging
- read bulgaria
- catchy song, good staging, x factor hype maybe
- read estonia
- the pop diva we all need
- read greece


I wouldn't discard , and , maybe even

 

[Chorizo]

and could make it too and Armenia and Azerbaijan might fail this time.

After the rehearsals:



I hope like last year Belgium will be better received during the live shows than during the rehearsals.



With support from SIM cards and juries bought in smaller countries.

With support from diaspora and neighbors.

Fighting for 10th place:
I will pick Finland instead of Armenia for 10th place this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it fails to qualify.

 

[Citelis]

and one of

 

[John1]

After the rehearsals

 

[Trece]

YT views of 1st rehearsals on official channel

Cyprus 543396
Israel 538809
Greece 401039
Finland 322925
Czech Republic 288152
Croatia 246731
Estonia 211518
Azerbaijan 187867
Lithuania 170939
Belgium 167271
Bulgaria 160907
Belarus 160422
Macedonia 134140
Albania 122583
Iceland 104552
Ireland 96569
Austria 95385
Armenia 85229
Switzerland 73988

 

[LoveHate]

For sure:
Israel
Greece
Bulgaria

Very likely:
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Estonia
Austria

Probably:
Azerbaijan
Belgium

Maybe:
Armenia
————————-
Finland
FYR Macedonia
Lithuania
Belarus

Mind blown:
Croatia
Albania
Switzerland
Ireland

Hell freezes over:
Iceland

 

[Hele.]

I would love to offer some different point of view...maybe it is not that much about song qualities or staging but something about statistics and numbers...As far as I'm concerned, I think that so far there hasn't been situation when more songs from first half of SF qualified than from second half...here are situations from previous years since introduction of two semi-finals:

2017 SF1: 5-5
2017 SF2: 5-5
2016 SF1: 5-5
2016 SF2: 5-5
2015 SF1: 4-6
2015 SF2: 3-7
2014 SF1: 5-5
2014 SF2: 4-6
2013 SF1: 5-5
2013 SF2: 4-6
2012 SF1: 4-6
2012 SF2: 4-6
2011 SF1: 4-6
2011 SF2: 5-5
2010 SF1: 4-6
2010 SF2: 5-5
2009 SF1: 3-7*
2009 SF2: 3-7*
2008 SF1: 3-7*
2008 SF2: 5-5*

*Televote only + jury invitation wildcard

As we can see, there is not situation when more songs from first half went to final, always in best scenario it was 5-5 or it has been prevailing to second half. Since jury-televote 50-50 voting (in different ways of points calculation - as we know, it was changing through years), but it is noticeable that songs from first half became more competitive! Especially in last two years when points from both, jury and televote are just summed up, outcome is completely equal! In previous years, when televote would have advantage in case of tie, we can notice that in most cases songs from second half would be favored. Anyhow, why I'm speaking all this?

When looking currently on odds, we can see some strongest SF favorites are allocated in first half! Acutally, top 4 by current betting odds of SF1 preform in first half! Those are: Israel, Estonia, Bulgaria and Czech Republic! And among favorites to qualify (currently top 10) are Belgium (for long time strong favorite) and Belarus while very strong esc nation that has never failed to qualify, Azerbaijan, is not even in top 10 but at 11th position! Some nations have strong, outstanding hopes and stagings like Albania and Lithuania! Maybe even Iceland can shock everybody out of nowhere?
Anyhow, based on history statistical trends of favoring second half and taking into account great songs in first half of SF1, I think there will be some shocking surprises in first half and some hard to believe non qualifiers! Who it will be? I do not have idea...maybe I would say Iceland, Albania, Belarus, Lithuania and Czech Republic/Azerbaijan/Estonia but any, but nominally any of those songs could qualify!!
Hmm...but who knows, maybe history will change and for first time there will be more songs from first half to go to final than from second half?

 

[0scar]

After the first and second rehearsals, I'd say and surprise qualifier

are borderline qualifiers in my opinion, and could easily replace either .

The only ones I think that are out are

 

[Luki]

aka the club of 00s losers

 

[Kaz]

I would love to offer some different point of view...maybe it is not that much about song qualities or staging but something about statistics and numbers...

I don’t think numbers and statistics will be the crux of why some countries qualify and others won’t. 2017 was a year full of smashing records and statistics. Portugal’s first win, Portugal winning with the most points ever, Bulgaria and Moldova cracking top 3, etc. There’s no reason why 2018 can’t be similar.

 

[Ana Raquel]

other spots are a bloodbath between all remaining countries but


at the moment it's:
and i literally have NO IDEA

 

[ag89]

I am even not trying to predict who is going through, it's extremely hard.

 

[blue00eyes]

Albania, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Israel, Czech Rep.

Switzerland, Armenia, Macedonia, Iceland, Ireland are doomed for sure

 

[leelook]

I think , , , and are sure qualifiers.
and are the only ones I think can be ruled out of contention.
So... I predict the other survivors of the blodbath will be , , , and .

(I'll be satisfied with a 50% prediction rate here this is a ridiculously tough year)

 

[Iker]

I don’t think numbers and statistics will be the crux of why some countries qualify and others won’t. 2017 was a year full of smashing records and statistics. Portugal’s first win, Portugal winning with the most points ever, Bulgaria and Moldova cracking top 3, etc. There’s no reason why 2018 can’t be similar.

I think there are so many people out there who are too entangled in statistics. It's fine, interesting and informative once in a while, but people put too much weight on it and can get out of touch with what's currently going on and the essence of it.

 

[Kevan1994]

I think there are so many people out there who are too entangled in statistics. It's fine, interesting and informative once in a while, but people put too much weight on it and can get out of touch with what's currently going on and the essence of it.

Exactly. Statistics are helpful to explain patterns of data from the past but aren't to be used for predictive purposes.