Semi 1: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[Miguel]

As it stands/before rehearsals: Belgium, Czech Republic, Israel, Belarus, Estonia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Finland, Armenia, and Cyprus. The strongest entries are mainly in the first half. One of the most open editions, and probably the strongest semi-final ever!

 

[Ana Raquel]

lmao if belgium turns out to be the surprise NQ of this semi, her performance in Israel was awful

 

[Kairit]

... God this semi is insane will update on the semi night probably.

 

[Alaska49]

who is the single lonely person who believes iceland will advance

bless your heart whoever you are

 

[Ezio]

My prediction - I am very serious about it

1st Israel
2nd Austria
3rd Greece
4th Bulgaria
5th FYR Macedonia
6th Czech Republic
7th Estonia
8th Lithuania
9th Cyprus
10th Ireland
11th Croatia
12th Finland
13th Switzerland
14th Azerbaijan
15th Belgium
16th Armenia
17th Albania
18th Belarus
19th Iceland

 

[4815162342]

My prediction - I am very serious about it

1st Israel
2nd Austria
3rd Greece
4th Bulgaria
5th FYR Macedonia
6th Czech Republic
7th Estonia
8th Lithuania
9th Cyprus
10th Ireland
11th Croatia
12th Finland
13th Switzerland
14th Azerbaijan
15th Belgium
16th Armenia
17th Albania
18th Bulgaria
19th Iceland

 

[tsegaye]

I tried to predict how the voting would turn out with scorewiz, I got these results:

1. 213+161=374
2. 105+175=280
3. 105+161=266
4. 105+114=214
5. 57+144=201
6. 86+107=193
7. 129+41=170
8. 74+78=152
9. 63+52=115
10. 62+48=110
11. 79+22=101
12. 41+35=76
13. 30+35=65
14. 40+23=63
15. 27+35=62
16. 33+8=41
17. 14+25=39
18. 10+6=16
19. 3+6=9

https://scorewiz.eu/scoreboard/view/212763/semi-1---2018

This is of course without knowing anything about staging. I feel that will get more jury points and more televoting points. I predicted and inside of the top 10 before, so this was quite interesting.

 

[JamieBrown]

Well, as the thread starter here's what I'm thinking, giving you the qualification chances in %

Safest qualifiers
90 % Greece is the safest qualifier for me. The songs got a good reaction and the voting patterns, semi allocation allows to assume that Greece will get enough televoting points stand alone
85 % The current team really knows how to catch attention in a song and get a good staging, so I hardly believe this can fail
80 % A lot has to be done to destroy her qualification chances, as she's the big favourite. She'll not win imo, but she's such an icon for many that can't fall anymore
80 % No matter how, she should make it, might be the 1st or the 10th.
80 % I can see the juries pushing this that lot, that even if she's only a fanwank she should make it. Possibility is there, but it's small

Will make it 9/10 times
75 % She might be a little fanwank too, but that doesn't cut her chances to get through
65 % Maybe the odds for Azerbaijan will never be smaller, but she's got everything to make it still. Somehow Azerbaijan lost the possibilities to win, still they know how to qualify
60 % Enough of jury support and then I can't see the public blanking this, if not voting this into their Top 10 as well. But a lot's possible here, still one of the bigger chances

The Borderliners
55 % This is the underestimated imo. I can totally see people falling for this hymn, but I wouldn't be too surprised if this stays in the semis
50 % My minds going crazy about this. Everytime I hear it, I change my oppinion whether this qualifies or not. Russia and Ukraine are not in this semi, but maybe this encourages the russian diaspora to vote for Belarus idk
45 % The staging might be the key. And the public. I'm curious about this and if it qualifies, I'd say rather not
45 % I'm quite sure this won't do as good in the televoting as all are expecting. Do juries vote for smth like this? Idk. I don't get juries sometimes anyway

The Rather-Nots
35 % Oh well, I don't see Armenia qualifying this year. I think they tried to recreate the 2014 entry, but a climax needs more than to repeat the one-worded chorus imo.
35 % It's sweet enough and everything. But even I do see that this semi contains of 17 possible finalists. A small chance survived, but I'm staying negative about this
25 % Mhh. Maybe a clearer song structure would help this. This is a mess that could survive being considered as 'art' somehow.

The Hardly-Making-It
15 % The same like with Lithuania, but with the difference that it's Ireland. I would like to get surprised though. Go underdogs.
15 % The same like with Ireland, but with the difference that it's not a ballad. Go underdogs.
10 % The only reason I put it in this category is that the bubble sees something somehow. Can't believe I'm following the bubble

The Never
5 % What should I say? I voted for this though. Just for the lolz. Or to have no entry with 0 votes. Then again I like jokes. Better joke entries. With that said: I did not. Well it's 5 % because there's always a small chance

 

[JamieBrown]

Semi 2 follows tomorrow

 

[Kaz]

Jury Televote Total
01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
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19.

 

[Alaska49]

BOLD MOVE INCOMING: i am taking a chance and i now have NOT qualifying. i have both legit reasons and overthinking eurofan reasons for this.

legit reason: i just don't see it as charismatic enough to succeed. it's not because i hate it because i don't like either and jessica has clearly erased all doubts about her qualification even televote-wise. this song just feels more "woki mit deim popo" than "my słowianie".

overthinking eurofan reason (the one that doesn't matter but the one we are all interested in anyway):

in semifinal history we have never had more than 5 acts from the first half of a semifinal qualifying. and it's thanks to the juries and non-random running order that even 5 have made it because before 2010 it was even more slanted towards second half. but this semifinal's first half already has , and . those three are not flopping. this leaves us with two spots, for which i have to favour jury friendly songs because they are the least affected by running order. already feels like a bigger televote winner than and it is also. more jury friendly, so fourth spot goes to them. and are next to each other, between sennek and big name netta, in the first half. if things happen the way they used to, televote is not going strongly this way, and ieva is more jury friendly than mikolas (and opener aisel).

therefore, i change my prediction to and would not be surprised if ieva also failed to qualify and we got another second half qualifier ( PLEASE). in the case i am grossly underestimating mikolas's appeal to the wider public, it feels more likely that risks losing a spot to a second half-er rather than the status quo breaking so we could have six first half qualifiers (which is word for " is DEAD").

 

[lolita]

to me seems the most popular song after Israel or maybe Bulgaria, but he is 3rd. I also think it is the most unoriginal and overrated song, but people are amazed by it. And then we must count votes from teenage fangirls/fanboys, Mikolas is the most popular boy this year, and they are all crazy for him.

 

[carl1]

There's no way Czech is not qualifying, if any favourites from the 1st half are unsafe, it's Belgium imo.

 

[lolita]

There's no way Czech is not qualifying, if any favourites from the 1st half are unsafe, it's Belgium imo.

Yeah, that is true, the only acts that are constantly under hype, everyday I read something about them in the ESC news are Netta or Mikolas. Other 8 acts from odds' top10 are rarely mentioned.

 

[joancamo]

I think if Elina doesn't bring her dress she could also be in trouble. I see Belgium as borderline because live she hasn't be good either.

 

[hijirio]

Belgium is indeed in trouble.

 

[Yazy]

My personal prediction is:

 

[SwissKung]

My prediction

01.
02.
03.
04.
05.
06.
07.
08.
09.
10. (I love the song but I'm not sure televoters will like it enough so the jury will probably save this)

11.
12. (Iceland 2016 - Estonia 2017, the jury will bomb this)
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I haven't listened to all the songs in full yet. (only really getting into this years Eurovision now) I've listened to a recap a few times though so I have a vague idea at least...



Finland is kind of borderline though. It strikes me as the kind of song that gets hyped up a lot, then flops and gets called an injustice of Eurovision.

 

[ES2011]

My prediction:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

11. Too much fan hype, the live version well be disappointing. Rockerfeller street 2.0
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.