Semi 1: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[A-lister]

In alphabetical order which entries I predict to qualify:

(more due to jury votes)
(evenly distributed)
(more due to jury votes)
(evenly distributed, but probably more jury votes)
(more due to televotes)
(evenly distributed)
(evenly distributed, but more emphasize on jury votes)
(evenly distributed, but more emphasize on jury votes)
(evenly distributed, but more emphasize on televotes)
(evenly distributed, but more emphasize on televotes)

 

[Alaska49]

starts with 24 Points from + Greek/Cypriot Diaspora-Votes from + maybe Albanian Diasporavotes from and

none of those other than greece are in any way guaranteed cyprus votes, particularly armenia and uk. also this show has proven time and time again that, unless it happens every single year like greece/cyprus, blockvoting and diaspora voting is just not that huge of a deal. song quality and performance quality are paramount to success, and eleni seriously need to show that, you know, she has ever sung live in her entire career before i have more confidence in her qualification.

 

[Citelis]

Exactly! Only votes from are sure! Nothing else! I'm not evenb sure that will vote for !

 

[LalehForWD]

Voted:
Aisel - X My Heart
Sennek - A Matter Of Time
Equinox - Bones
Elina Netsayeva - La Forza
Saara Aalto - Monsters
Ryan Shaughnessy - Together
Netta - Toy
Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
Eleni Foureira - Fuego

Bolds are top 3

edit:
lol already I'd say Gianna Terzi instead of Ireland most likely

 

[Jim]

1 Bulgaria
2 Estonia
3 Israel
4 Czech Republic
5 Greece
6 Armenia
7 Belgium
8 Belarus
9 Cyprus
10 Switzerland
---
11 Azerbaijan
12 Austria
13 Finland
14 Albania
15 Croatia
16 FYR Macedonia
17 Lithuania
18 Ireland
19 Iceland

 

[Alaska49]

well, with how little people cared about 's plagiarism controversy i guess it really isn't even in the fight for the 10th spot like i said. good for i guess (though i still think and are more likely until i see eleni live in any capacity)

 

[94ayd]

After the running order has been revealed, I believe , , , & are qualifying from the first half, whereas , , , and one of & from the second.

 

[Alaska49]

well, the running order just took a big dump on and set up to ne the new laura tesoro/imri. i guess she goes through after all.

to recap, my prediction is with only the last two being sort of tentative. if saara doesn't advance like so many people are somehow saying i will eat this rock.

 

[0scar]

Final guess before rehearsals

 

[DaFlo]

7 qualifiers from the first half is kinda impossible but oh well

After listening to the running order recap I gotta adjust:

 

[John1]

After having listened to this recap, here are my predictions for this bloodbath semi-final.



Given that will be overshadowed by and , I don't even know whether the latter will make it through. Let's say that it's ending up 11th in my qualifiers prediction.

 

[tsegaye]

After the running order (had these before it as well) I think these will qualify:


This is SUCH a strong semi. I think could snatch the last (wig) spot from either or .

 

[GermanBango]

Eh I wasn't too happy with my first calculation/prediction so I did another one with adjusted percentages. Keep in mind that this does not necessarily reflect my personal opinion ... it's really just based on numbers. We don't know about the performances etc. yet so this is more of a tendency.
(Yes before someone asks: this took me almost 3 hours haha)

Results

Jury Scoreboard (50% voting patterns + 35% odds + 15 % polls)

Televoting Scoreboard (45% polls + 30% voting patterns + 20% odds + 5% Youtube views)

 

[theditz83]

Definites:

Likely:

Less likely:

Slim chance:

 

[Himan]

'Sure' to qualify:
, , , I'm not so sure about many songs anymore. So many good songs in this semi. But these 4 seem good enough

probable qualifiers:
, , , , , , but I'm not sure about any of them. Not sure if Belgium delivers on stage, and a bad draw. I still don't like Finland, but a good draw. Azerbaijan not to good. Macedonia a grower on this forum. I think they will deliver, but not for sure. Cyprus must also deliver. Fire in the stadium please. Czech Republic is good, but a bad draw, still not sure how he will give his song.

Probable NQ:
, , , , , , This is so difficult. Austria is really a good song, actually all of them are. Mistakes will be costly because any nation of these 7 can fill in the spot. And yet again, I still have a strange feeling about Lithuania to qualify...

'sure' NQ:
, Well, These are almost sure not good enough to qualify for the final.

But the live versions will be very important here. , , , , , , , , all songs we don't know what they will do.

 

[Kevan1994]

Gonna have to go with

Just missing out:

 

[John1]

After having listened to this recap, here are my predictions for this bloodbath semi-final.



Given that will be overshadowed by and , I don't even know whether the latter will make it through. Let's say that it's ending up 11th in my qualifiers prediction.

I can't manage to see not making it to the final with such a breathtaking entry and sailing through the grand final without struggling with this draw.

 

[FreeFair]

The majority of the countries that televote heavily for Azerbaijan in recent (post 2013) years are in Semi Final 2. Only the Czechs seem to give them consistent points, though Greece & Cyprus may throw them a few because of the nationality of the composers of the song. I don't see the Juries liking the generic song & I don't see it qualifying with the mediocre performance Aisel gave at the Moscow preparty yesterday.

 

[FreeFair]

I like the methodology of the table above, but Czech Republic will definitely get high televote points from the UK & Ireland, it sounds like most of the R'n'B in our singles charts!

 

[Mii11]

1. Israel
2. Greece
3. Bulgaria
4. Cyprus
5. Czech Republic
6. Austria
7. Belgium
8. Estonia
9. FYR Macedonia
10. Switzerland
---
11. Finland
12. Croatia
13. Belarus
14. Azerbaijan
15. Lithuania
16. Ireland
17. Albania
18. Armenia
19. Iceland

It's gonna be a tough semi, and the last two places are still open to and depending on the performances.
I chose and over the others because I think their lives were the best ones so far (plus song is a bae)