Semi 1: Who do you think will qualify? Predictions Thread

[Chorizo]

After the rehearsals:



I hope like last year Belgium will be better received during the live shows than during the rehearsals.



With support from SIM cards and juries bought in smaller countries.

With support from diaspora and neighbors.

Fighting for 10th place:
I will pick Finland instead of Armenia for 10th place this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it fails to qualify.

Just 7 out of 10.
Three of the four countries that I wasn't sure about failed to qualify...
I didn't expect Albania, Lithuania, and Ireland to qualify at all.

I'm so happy that Austria made it!!!

It's sad that Belgium didn't even qualify...
I don't care about Greece and I'm happy that Azerbaijan didn't make it. I hope we will have another prominent first-time NQ on Thursday.

I don't mind that Lithuania and Albania qualified and I'm thrilled that Ireland made it. It's not among my favorites but I like that Russia has to broadcast the performance on Saturday.

The only country out of my top 10 that failed is Belgium, so I can live with the result. I would have preferred a few other countries to qualify but overall the result is okay for me. At least Belgium had three great years from 2015 to 2017.
It would have been nice for Switzerland to qualify again. Maybe next year.

 

[Alaska49]

therefore, i change my prediction to and would not be surprised if ieva also failed to qualify and we got another second half qualifier ( PLEASE). in the case i am grossly underestimating mikolas's appeal to the wider public, it feels more likely that risks losing a spot to a second half-er rather than the status quo breaking so we could have six first half qualifiers (which is word for " is DEAD").

7 right, which I think is a good job considering i pegged as dead from the beginning, never stopped believing in and at least paid attention to the six first half qualifiers thing, which nobody seemed to think about. the big surprise was killing for good since ended up delivering enough that her only hope was exactly to have people in the second half being weak. and made themselves vulnerable, but it made sense to bet on them before rehearsals.

 

[EscGeek]

okay, my first and last prediction:

i got 8/10.. and yall above me got 7... i'm leading

 

[Ezio]

The qualifiers of tonight were the losers of the last decade. Eurovision has changed for the better.

 

[Chorizo]

i got 8/10.. and yall above me got 7... i'm leading

 

[John1]

7/10

 

[Ana Raquel]

- going well on jury, good staging
- the ott act we all wanted
- kinda obvious for the hype
- even with changes bc of his health he'll manage to pull it off
- shock qualifier because of the staging
- read bulgaria
- catchy song, good staging, x factor hype maybe
- read estonia
- the pop diva we all need
- read greece


I wouldn't discard , and , maybe even

7/10

other spots are a bloodbath between all remaining countries but


at the moment it's:
and i literally have NO IDEA

7/8

 

[iGotNoiPad]

90% confident will qualify: Estonia, Cyprus, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic

70%: Armenia, Greece

50% (Borderline Qualifiers): Belgium, Finland, Austria, Azerbaijan, Albania, Belarus, Switzerland, Lithuania

Final Predictions: Estonia, Cyprus, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Armenia, Greece, Belgium, Finland, Austria

7/10

Before I wrote this, I had Belgium as 70% but decided to lower it after watching the rehearsals. TLDR 70% means not qualifying.

 

[hawadharma]

Hola! It’s a bit of a late SF1 broadcast for me as an Asian enthusiast of ESC 2018 (3 am in my local time).

I tried hard not to look at spoilers of qualifiers while I am watching the recorded live streaming on Youtube.
Well, here are my commentaries for each SF1 semi-finalist (in not more than 20 words per country), as I watch them:

My commentaries for SF1:

“X My Heart” – Generic song with over the top performance which doesn’t make the song any less generic. Nervous vocalist, unnecessary dance moves.

“Our Chance” – Yawn Yawn Yawn Yawn Yawn, why are the random guys on stage. Are they having a reunion. What a snoozefest.

“Mall” – The only thing stands out is the vocals. That kind of high note is very rare in male vocalists and I salute him.

“Matter of Time” – What an overrated song. Pretentious lyrics. The singer looks so awkward on stage as well. And what an ugly dress.

“Lie To Me” – Wow, great stage performance! Perfect replication of the music video and flawless choreography. Backpack is a new fashion statement now.

“When We’re Old” – The song is beautiful I admit, but you don’t just send a whispery song to ESC like that. I yawn a bit.

“Toy” – Yeah, Netta lived up to the hype! Though she looks tired. But the dancers really bring up the performance energy.

“Forever” – Cheesy from the very first second. And terrible vocals. The only thing left to praise is the dancer, she’s very graceful.

“La Forza” – Impeccable vocal performance and classy appearance. But like Netta, she looks a bit worn out. Anyway, she really slays.

“Bones” – Vocally jaw-dropping. They could have played a bit with the staging but damn that’s so good. That last note, wow.

“Lost and Found” – Just noticed this song is very catchy. Definite underdog. But, the singer played with her sexual appeal a bit too much.

“Crazy” – Quite shocked she did not bring the quirky dancers, but she killed it single-handedly. Better than recorded version.

“Nobody But You” – Same like Croatia, his presence and vocals is bigger than the song itself. Great contact with camera and the audience.

“Oneiro Mou” – Magical tune, possibly the best song composition this year. And the singer brings out the goddess-like quality. Great job.

“Monsters” – Big improvement from national final show, with no messy choreography and dancers. Focused on her great vocals, well done.

“Qami” – Very underrated song with overpouring soul from the vocalist. For once I thought Joci Papai was singing. Vocally really good.

“Stones” – Type of song American artists would take as their single. I liked her communicating with the audience about being heartbroken.

“Together” – First time I saw this song presented live. Did the dancing guys make the cut in Russian broadcast? Nice performance.

“Fuego” – Hail Queen Eleni! Beyonce who?? Really powerful performance, something Europeans will be proud of when promoting ESC to their American friends.

My Ranking (so sad to leave out no.11 & 12 from my Top 10) ☹:

1. Bulgaria
2. Cyprus
3. Czech Republic
4. Austria
5. Israel
6. Estonia
7. Greece
8. Switzerland
9. Finland
10. Croatia

…………………………………………………………………………………
(+10)

1. Armenia
2. FYR Macedonia
3. Ireland
4. Albania
5. Lithuania
6. Azerbaijan
7. Belgium
8. Belarus
9. Iceland

 

[Dima]

This is just based on my first impression and observations after rehearsal 1


1 and 2. Estonia or Cyprus
3. Israel
4. Austria
5. Albania
6.Czech Republic
7.Finland
8.Azerbaijan
9.Bulgaria
10. Ireland or Belarus

I’m predicting Greece as the surprise non qualifier.

9/10. I went with Azerbaijan because they’re Azerbaijan

I guess I won’t know until after the competition how on or off I was with predicting their actual ranking.

 

[ati0111]

After rehearsals: 1.Estonia 2.Cyprus 3.Israel 4.Bulgaria 5.Czech Republic 6.Austria 7.Finland 8.Lithuania 9.Azerbaijan 10.Greece
11.Armenia 12.Albania 13.Croatia 14.Belgium 15.Switzerland 16.Belarus 17.Ireland 18.FYR Macedonia 19.Iceland

8/10
I didn't expect Albania & Ireland, but I'm so happy that they are in the final

 

[blue00eyes]

Albania, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Israel, Czech Rep.

Switzerland, Armenia, Macedonia, Iceland, Ireland lol here now are doomed for sure

8/10
and incorrect

 

[tsegaye]

FINAL PREDICTION TIME!!! (This is a random order)











I think the battle for the 10th place is between and , the others are quite far behind.

8/10, I went with just because they're Armenia I'm very sad to see Greece outside of the final, feels like she was 11th behind or maybe.

 

[FreeFair]

Predicted semi final 1 overall ranking
1) Israel
2) Estonia
3) Cyprus (televote winner)
4) Bulgaria (narrow jury winner)
5) Czech Republc
6) Lithuania
7) Austria
8) Finland
9) Albania
10) Ireland
11) Switzerland
12) Belgium
13) Greece
14) Belarus
15) Armenia
16) Azerbaijan
17) Croatia
18) FYR Macedonia
19) Iceland

 

[ES2011]

7/10 hahahah sh*t. I neaaaarly put through but then i changed it ...

8/10 and I did include , I just missed (which was my #11) and

My biggest mistake was overestimating the diaspora power of , staging of , and underestimating ma boy Eugent

I did correctly predict downfall though

 

[Leydan]

In Random order:

Mikolas Josef - Lie to Me
Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
Equinox - Bones
Aisel - X My Heart
Saara Aalto - Monsters
Netta - Toy
Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
Eleni Foureira -Fuego
Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
Yianna Terzi - Oniro Mou

Easily also though.

Not bad. 7/10 And Austria from my reserve. Only counted Armemia as they have qualified with much weaker songs. Only Greece was the real shock for me. ONTO SEMI 2!

 

[RainyWoods]

This semi feels so hard to predict

Top 10 (no particular order)

Very polished and accessible with some great staging. I'm fairly certain this won't be Azerbaijan's first miss.
Best vocals of the night it seems. I'm not 100% on this one but Albania seems to have learned from their mistakes here and haven't messed up their song with awful styling this time.
Infectious song and memorable. Jury might damage it a little but the public will love it.
The hype behind it will safely carry it through to the final but I have my doubts it will actually win the whole thing.
Vocals + impressive staging = final
Should be quite the jury magnet. The question is whether the public will get on board? I have my doubts but should be an easy final.
Even if juries completely turned their nose up, this is sailing to the final on public vote alone. A contender to win the semi.
The song feels almost non existent but viewers like a tale, and the gay love story thing will likely win the entry enough brownie points. This entry will probably cancel out Lithuania which seems to be gaining fan momentum, but the casual viewer I think will favour Ireland
Very poorly received rehearsal but I think it will look better with a crowd and the quality of the composition will likely be able to push this one through.
Most seem to think this is a certain miss, and I don't quite understand why this entry is being slept on. It feels so relevant and fresh in the context of ESC and the music along with the singers voice makes it sound massive.

Shock misses:

Eurovision likes a hot mess from time to time, but I just feel like Finland will struggle in this tough semi. Catchy and fun song but there are other pops here that potentially can devour it whole.
Albania's power vocalist singer is more impressive and will cancel this out.
At first I imagined this doing very well, but now I worry that it will actually miss out on the final. The performance doesn't feel special enough. I think it will need a jury carry. The song is powerful but it's one step off from being an Australian entry. That's all good and well if you're actually Australia but Austria probably won't get that same jury support.
Beautiful song but the performance feels.. a bit vacant. Her style of singing is so low energy that I just feel like people won't get this. I hope very much that i'm wrong because I want this to reach the final, but I just fear that people won't connect. So it's got 24 points from Cyprus in the bag, but where is the other 80-ish points needed going to come from?

7/10

Correctly guessed two surprise qualifiers in Albania and Ireland, but three surprises was probably too much to ask, so poor Switzerland had to sit out. I didn't actually realize how beautiful the Lithuanian staging was. If i'd have been doing my predictions whilst watching the show I would have switched Lithuania with Belgium (started to get bad feelings as I was watching it, depsite it being my favourite performance of the night), whilst still keeping my incorrect predictions of Azerbaijan and Switzerland as qualifiers. Those two I still believed were strong enough to reach the final.

 

[Kitakaze]

This feels like the trickiest semi to predict in memory. Thinking:

Safe
1. Israel
2. Estonia
3. Cyprus
4. Czech Republic

Likely

5. Bulgaria
6. Austria

Borderline
7. Lithuania
8. Greece
9. Finland
10. Azerbaijan

11. Belgium
12. Armenia
13. Belarus
14. Croatia

Unlikely
15. Switzerland
16. Albania
17. Ireland
18. FYR Macedonia

Out
19. Iceland

I'm also finding it particularly difficult to gauge how well Greece and Belgium will do, given the disparity between their popularity in the ESC bubble and the major red flags with their rehearsals. With the jury vote being so unpredictable though, I'm giving Greece the benefit of the doubt for now by factoring in the televote- the diaspora and their friends (Cyprus, UK, Albania) which Belgium can't rely on, despite having arguably a more broadly appealing song. I think Sennek's vocals and her early position in the draw before a string of strong, memorable songs may just prove to be one too many an obstacle to overcome.

Well I took out Greece before the show and replaced it with Armenia, thinking another male surely had to go through. Was shocked that Albania and later Ireland (!) became the replacements! Having said that, they both seemed to gain a lot of momentum after the jury rehearsal. Still, 8/10...
No matter how strong the songs, I'd never have the confidence to pick these 2 non televote-friendly countries to qualify from this strong semi anyway!

 

[midnightsun]

To be honest I'm not surprised that Albania qualified (though I did not have them on my list due to too many good songs) because they have qualified with much worse songs the past years and similar songs qualified in the past (Lonely planet - Armenia e.g.).

I also predicted Ireland to qualify. The past two years people seemed to start liking pure, simple ballads.

I never thought Greece would not qualify. It's a classic Eurovision. In the mid-90s this would probably have won the contest.

 

[GermanBango]

If we are "combining" the Youtube views and the chart performances we may get an idea of what the overall televoting results looked like:
1 (YT: 1 // C: 1)
2 (6 // 3)
3 (4 // 5)
4 (2 // 8 )
5 (8 // 6)
6 (10 // 4)
7 (3 // 12)
8 (16 // 2)
9 (12 // 7)
10 (9 // 11)

11 (5 // 15)
12 (7 // 14)
13 (15 // 9)
14 (14 // 13)
15 (11 // 16)
16 (18 // 10)
17 (13 // 19)
18 (17 // 17)
19 (19 // 18)