Something about this reminds me of Armenia 2014 actually
The statement "staging doesn't help if the song is not good enough" makes no sense in this case because Scream is still second with the bookies and obviously a favorite. We have seen good stagings give the predicted NQs a top 10 result so Russia winning with a good staging is not a reach by any means.
It's only been out for an afternoon and the money people put on Russia before the song doesn't magically go away. The amount this has drifted by speaks volumes on fan reaction.