lavieenrose
Albania Superstar
Do those countries not vote?
Russia RUSSIA 2016 - Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One
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Do those countries not vote?
lavieenrose
Albania Superstar
What motivation would they have to manipulate in Russia's favor?
Chorizo
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Sergey will win the televote in these countries. My point is that it is largely Russians supporting Russia instead of the general population loving this song.
The levels of politics-based denial of Russia being the favourite (which it is, according to the bookies) are hilarious. Chart manipulation conspiracy theories now, seriously!? 
I don't get why people can't accept that a certain song, regardless of how much they like it, has a good chance of winning when it is objectively true.
I don't get why people can't accept that a certain song, regardless of how much they like it, has a good chance of winning when it is objectively true.
lavieenrose
Albania Superstar
Okay, fair. Certainly chart-topping isn't a sign of quality, airtight or otherwise - just look at the Spotify charts for that
. But as a predictive tool, a case against the likelihood of a Russian victory has to explain that (not that this makes it inevitable - I still think we're off to Prague next year).
LalehForWD
Active member
Did I say they did?
The levels of politics-based denial of Russia being the favourite (which it is, according to the bookies) are hilarious. Chart manipulation conspiracy theories now, seriously!?
ditto
My point was more about it's pointless drawing any kind of conclusions from iTunes stats. Spotify is far more relevant but has it flaws as well.
Mans, Emmelie and Loreen were all the #1 most bought song out of all the entries on iTunes the day before the final - generally it is fairly reliable at least for predicting songs that will do well.
lavieenrose
Albania Superstar
No, but if the manipulation of iTunes charts diminishes their importance as a piece of evidence for the likelihood of a Russian victory, then it has to be explained why the iTunes charts would be overstating Russia/understating anyone else.
LalehForWD
Active member
In Scandinavia at least iTunes stats is as relevant as showing CD or vinyl sales - I don't know the exact figures but I guess about 1-5% of the total music consumption. In Russia for example my guess is the consumption is dominated by MP3 downloads, but I can be wrong.
Chorizo
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Okay, fair. Certainly chart-topping isn't a sign of quality, airtight or otherwise - just look at the Spotify charts for that
Prague next year would be epic especially since most Czechs have never even watched Eurovision.
They would be like "What have we won now?"
Carian
Well-known member
I am starting to believe that Russia will most likely take the trophy this year home. In my opinion, no matter how much you guys debate it, hate it, love it, like it, dislike it, with 90 % of certainty I am saying Sergey will win. And it will be a much better winner than Dima Bilan (I hated that song). But still, I really pray that some miracle will happen and we will see ESC going next year some place like Paris or Rome. It would be so great to have the ESC again back on the continent
GWTW1939
Active member
Queen Polina is going to read the Russian 12 points on Saturday
GermanBango
Well-known member
There are only 4 possibilities atm:
1. Russia leads by more than 30 points after the juries have voted = Russia will be the winner without a doubt (100%)
2. Russia leads only by a few points after the juries have voted = Russia will most likely (90%) win
3. Russia does not win the jury voting and but is only a few points behind the actual winner(ranked 2nd or 3rd) = Still, they're most likely going to win (70%)
4. Russia does not win the jury voting and is more than 30 points behind the actual winner (ranked 4th or 5th) = Chances are 50/50
The final COULD be the most exciting (voting wise) since 2003 but only if Russia does not win the jury voting - Sergey is most likely going to win the televote (anything but a top 3 with the public result seems like wishful thinking). I'm really hoping for the 4th option and an interesting, nerve wrecking Voting - a real fight between and maybe
1. Russia leads by more than 30 points after the juries have voted = Russia will be the winner without a doubt (100%)
2. Russia leads only by a few points after the juries have voted = Russia will most likely (90%) win
3. Russia does not win the jury voting and but is only a few points behind the actual winner(ranked 2nd or 3rd) = Still, they're most likely going to win (70%)
4. Russia does not win the jury voting and is more than 30 points behind the actual winner (ranked 4th or 5th) = Chances are 50/50
The final COULD be the most exciting (voting wise) since 2003 but only if Russia does not win the jury voting - Sergey is most likely going to win the televote (anything but a top 3 with the public result seems like wishful thinking). I'm really hoping for the 4th option and an interesting, nerve wrecking Voting - a real fight between
and maybe 
aef
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Queen Polina is going to read the Russian 12 points on Saturday
Oh okay...
So the information concerning Julia seems to be wrong...https://twitter.com/Eurovision_App/status/730917387713843200
joao
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Soooo true!
You can't focus on anything. It's just too much. I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't get a top 3!