Portugal PORTUGAL 2017 - Salvador Sobral - Amar pelos dois

[Bluesence]

The fact that Salvador did not win the televote does not mean he is not the favourite of the people. In fact, all you heard about here in Portugal in the past weeks was Salvador. He is the one everyone was talking about, he is the one trending on social media and youtube for the whole time of the competition (more than half a million hits by now). Even the opinion makers in the press are writing stuff about him (unprecedented for Festival da Canção).
In terms of popularity, if there was any competition to Salvador, that would be from Pedro (teenage girls) and maybe Fernando (people were hyped with his participation, but that ended quickly when they heard the song). Viva la Diva, the televote winner, didn't even come up in conversation.
What I think happened is, just like Suzy in 2014, Viva la Diva rallied many people from the composer's hometown and from the Brazilian community in Portugal (one of the members of the trio is Brazilian). Because so few people watch and vote in Festival da Canção, these things can actually make a difference in the televote result.
The proof that Viva la Diva is not the public's favourite is that, despite coming first in the televote but losing the ticket to Eurovision due to the jury, there was no drama among eurovsion fans and the public in general. Now you know how the Portuguese are experts in drama whenever their favourite artist gets sidetracked by the jury (think 2014 and 2010).

 

[GRE]

While we don't know the detailed split results, we do know the averages. You'd be pretty hard-pressed to make a convincing case that Denmark didn't win the televote given that they had a comfortable average televote rank lead over Ukraine (4.97 to 5.66).

Even then, what the 2013 stats do show as an undisputable fact is that Denmark had the highest average televoting. So at the very least, it can't be used in any 'juries are destroying the public opinion' sort of arguments.

I am sure that Denmark in 2013, did not win televote, neither jury voting.
Like Jamala last year.
But I can't prove it.
The only thing I can say is this:
10 national juries back in 2013, revealed their results:
10/39 is over 25% of overall.

1. Sweden & Netherlands 54
3. Norway 51
4. Belgium 49
5. Russia 41
6. Moldova 40
7. Denmark 37

There is no way Denmark won the jury voting, and I am sure Denmark lost the televoting from Ukraine.

 

[ZoboCamel]

I am sure that Denmark in 2013, did not win televote, neither jury voting.
Like Jamala last year.
But I can't prove it.
The only thing I can say is this:
10 national juries back in 2013, revealed their results:
10/39 is over 25% of overall.

1. Sweden & Netherlands 54
3. Norway 51
4. Belgium 49
5. Russia 41
6. Moldova 40
7. Denmark 37

There is no way Denmark won the jury voting, and I am sure Denmark lost the televoting from Ukraine.

I still think it's very unlikely that Denmark lost either set of voting in 2013; 10 juries isn't really a statistically significant number when you consider the leader at the '10 countries' votes revealed' mark is very often not the eventual winner. Denmark were quite safely ahead in the average scores, so in order to not have won, it would require that Denmark's average included an unusually large amount of countries rating them 11th or so at the same time as Ukraine had a bunch of 1st-5th scores and a bunch of 21st-26th. That in and of itself seems very unlikely, and there's no evidence to support that version of events, but even if you do accept it then you have to answer the question of 'how did Denmark come first in the overall score if so many countries placed it outside of scoring range?' Honestly, for Denmark to have not won the jury and/or televotes in 2013, you'd need a very specific set of unusual votes to have come about, and in all seriousness (I am a bit of a stats nerd) I would be very interested to see you try and provide a reconstruction of how that may believably have happened.

And of course, even if you can somehow prove that those weird circumstances probably came about - which you really can't with current data - you're left with the fact that Denmark did have the highest average score in both categories. While 'average placement from each country' may not be how Eurovision scoreboards work, it's still a perfectly valid metric of seeing people's preferences, and in some sense does so even more clearly than the usual system (in that it factors in the entire 1-26 ranking, rather than just 1-10).

Regardless, when the data tells us clearly 'Denmark was the clear favourite of both the jury and televoters', that gives us two options: A) 'things are as they seem to be' or B) 'there was an almost-inconceivable statistical anomaly'. Given no extra information, surely you can see that it's a little overboard to jump so assuredly onto option B, consider it 100% true, and use that as the basis of criticism towards the voting system?

 

[GRE]

I won't try to persuade you, it's pointless.
You have your opinion, and I respect it.
But I will also stick on my opinion.

 

[ParadiseES]

I am sure that Denmark in 2013, did not win televote, neither jury voting.
Like Jamala last year.
But I can't prove it.
The only thing I can say is this:
10 national juries back in 2013, revealed their results:
10/39 is over 25% of overall.

1. Sweden & Netherlands 54
3. Norway 51
4. Belgium 49
5. Russia 41
6. Moldova 40
7. Denmark 37

There is no way Denmark won the jury voting, and I am sure Denmark lost the televoting from Ukraine.

Is a difference of 17 points from 1/4 juries enough for you to prove it ? REALLY? :|

 

[Rusch]

Well, his performance is very, very odd...

 

[kamc]

He needs to hurry and release this masterpiece on Spotify already

 

[goncalovieira]

It's first years in decades that all the portuguese press is getting excited about an entry for Eurovision! Remarkable!

 

[Franzilein]

This is almost too artistic for the ESC I hope the "average voter" will appreciate it. It's not in my personal top 10, but it surely deserves the final.

 

[Mrm]

Well, his performance is very, very odd...

If you are not into real jazz it is, just read some comments of user [MENTION=9441]RainyWoods[/MENTION] here on this topic, and you will understand how real jazz is being performed!

 

[Musicosity]

The Portuguese song choices always tended to be somewhat soft and dated. This time that weakness was turned into strength, they went more soft and dated than ever before, right back to the beginnings of the ESC.

Brilliant move, Portugal! I hope it gets rewarded.

 

[Matt]

@Matt, how can you be so sure about 2013 results ?
We don't know them.

What we did know was the average ranking though and Denmark was in the lead. Could there have been some kind of outcome where Denmark did not place first? Sure. But based on the information that was provided, it showed that Denmark received the best average ranking with both groups.

 

[lavieenrose]

These two come as a pair

 

[VikingTiger]

I hope RTV will take their task seriously, and present Amar Pelos Dois in the best possible way. Portugal is in the first very ballad-heavy semi, but this song is different than the rest. And Salvador certainly is.
I think they should go for a very classical and simple presentation. Salvador is a great singer. I think Portugal will reach the final.

I just upgraded this to a 12 pointer by the way.

 

[DanielLuis]

I think the best possible presentation for the song is the one used in the national final: A single camera for the three minutes going in circles around the singer and the stage, with his face appearing and fading out when that camera is further away from the stage. It was really efficient and well done in the NF I think, and it will look even better in the Eurovision stage if they do it that way. No need to change anything when it comes to staging.

 

[lavieenrose]

I agree with [MENTION=6762]DanielLuis[/MENTION]. Especially since the stage won't be some behemoth like in 2014 (no shade, I love that stage), so it won't come off as cavernous if the staging is kind of simple.

 

[goncalovieira]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10155430959497923

 

[Catia]

https://www.facebook.com/rfmoficial/videos/10155430959497923/

From few minutes ago

 

[Matt]

http://https://www.facebook.com/rfmoficial/videos/10155430959497923/

From few minutes ago

I'm getting a "Site cannot be reached" error message.

 

[Catia]

I'm getting a "Site cannot be reached" error message.

I fixed it

Edit: i dosent work --'
Anyway, he did an acoustic version with his sister few minutes ago.

Probably someone can fix it better than me and put it available to see