You all can be rest assured that Israel won't win. I am pretty sure the jurors will blank it (for the wrong reasons).
Because I was looking back at 2021's results and I realize they got a pretty poor showing of the televoting and that's not even with the conflict going on. I do blame the early slot though. So if Israel does quality this time and draws either 1st half or producer's choice, I believe the showrunners will put Israel in the least favourable slot.
I know Israel supporters would likely to go all-out by voting this time to show solidarity, but I am not sure if that would be enough.
All I am hoping is a qualification and an added bonus for a good top 10 placement.
Once the results are released we will be able to tell how many jurors voted for political reasons. Looking at the last three years an overall performance like this would be rarely tanked by the jurors.
Looking at last years ballad / slow type of pop songs we had Estonia which only 1 juror placed at the bottom and Switzerland which 2 jurors placed at the bottom, Italy had 0.
On the other hand we had Let 3 with 49 Last Places, Albina (Kelmendi) with 22, Lord of the Lost with 17, Blanka with 13, Mae Muller with 11, Käärija with 10, Luke Black with 9, Pasha Parfeni with 9, Joker Out with 8.
Whats fascinating is that the super artsy and (for viewers at home) inaccessible Eaea only had 1 juror place it last.
In 2022 we had the extremely dire songs from Azerbaijan (which even got 0 telepoints in the semi), Switzerland and Australia. Excluding the Armenian vote we had Azerbaijan with 5 Last jury Places, Switzerland with 4 and Australia with 2. Some countries votes are missing since they were cheating, but overall the juries focused on putting Trenulețul, In corpore sano, Fulenn, Llámame on their last places. Even Kalush Orchestra had more last places.
In a normal year Hurricane would at max receive 1 or perhaps 2 juries putting it last. Assuming Windows95man makes it to the final we basically have this years Let3 for the juries. There will also be other performances the juries wouldnt like in a normal year.
