ESC 2019 General Discussion Thread

[Realest]

Never said the Opposite tbh, but saying that most NQs from Semi1 would qualify in Semi2 is BS since Semi1 had more automatic NQs and Semi2 more possible Qualifiers.

 

[BorisBubbles]

You lost the arguement, dude. Let it go. It's not worth it.

 

[Realest]

AWS beat Saara both with Juries and Televoters (easily here), so if Sennek and co. couldnt even come close to Saara (14+ Points margin is pretty much), they wouldnt even have come close to AWS, who was proven unlucky in the Semi to have the wrong Juries voting there. This also proves that they would have qualified much clearlier in Semi1 than 2. So no, Im objective right, like always when we have some mathematical Discussions and I won the Argument despite being in the Minority.

 

[Schlagerman1]

AWS beat Saara both with Juries and Televoters (easily here), so if Sennek and co. couldnt even come close to Saara (14+ Points margin is pretty much), they wouldnt even have come close to AWS, who was proven unlucky in the Semi to have the wrong Juries voting there. This also proves that they would have qualified much clearlier in Semi1 than 2. So no, Im objective right, like always when we have some mathematical Discussions and I won the Argument despite being in the Minority.

Yes, AWS won over Saara in the final (just with 5p in jury...but 42 points in televote which is an easy win indeed). But it all comes down to the countries they are in the semi with. Sure, looking at the countries that voted for Hungary in the final, it is interesting that the televotes comes mainly from semi 2 voting ones, but the jury points comes mainly from the first semi (Azerbaijan, Greece and Cyprus being the three that gave the most jury points). These might have given the same, or even more in a potential semi 1 for AWS. But this is only speculation, it is really hard to see how many points AWS would have got, it all depends on draw and what people are on the mood for on the night. Also, remember that Hungary was in pot 4 in the semifinal allocation pots, together with for example Azerbaijan, Greece and Cyprus, so one of those three wouldn't be in the same semi nevertheless. Let's say Azerbaijan wasn't, then Hungary would lose at least 8 points, which might have been a differece in such a tight semi. Azerbaijan however could earn at least 18 points each from one of Russia, Malta or Ukraine there instead of the 0 from Armenia, which could have been enough to qualify.

But after all, it is just speculation, we will never know for sure. But I do agree with [MENTION=16481]BorisBubbles[/MENTION], I think that semi 2 were better for some countries, like Azerbaijan or Armenia, they could have made it through with a decent draw.

 

[Schlagerman1]

Yes, AWS won over Saara in the final (just with 5p in jury...but 42 points in televote which is an easy win indeed). But it all comes down to the countries they are in the semi with. Sure, looking at the countries that voted for Hungary in the final, it is interesting that the televotes comes mainly from semi 2 voting ones, but the jury points comes mainly from the first semi (Azerbaijan, Greece and Cyprus being the three that gave the most jury points). These might have given the same, or even more in a potential semi 1 for AWS. But this is only speculation, it is really hard to see how many points AWS would have got, it all depends on draw and what people are on the mood for on the night. Also, remember that Hungary was in pot 4 in the semifinal allocation pots, together with for example Azerbaijan, Greece and Cyprus, so one of those three wouldn't be in the same semi nevertheless. Let's say Azerbaijan wasn't, then Hungary would lose at least 8 points, which might have been a differece in such a tight semi. Azerbaijan however could earn at least 18 points each from one of Russia, Malta or Ukraine there instead of the 0 from Armenia, which could have been enough to qualify.

But after all, it is just speculation, we will never know for sure. But I do agree with [MENTION=16481]BorisBubbles[/MENTION], I think that semi 2 were better for some countries, like Azerbaijan or Armenia, they could have made it through with a decent draw.

Oops, I noticed that Azerbaijan wasn't in the same pot, but the same would go if Greece were swtiching semi with Hungary...Maybe Greece would have a harder time in semi 2 though, but maybe Hungary would as well...

 

[Sabiondo]

I think and are the biggest Winners.

I think that will win the Semi 1 (with in the close race) and will win the other semi (In a very close race with )

In my opinion will have their alies - , , , , , (and sligly and ), While in the other semi will have , , , , (and little and at televoting) .

 

[BorisBubbles]

Lithuania's draw is very good, then again... it's Lithuania.

 

[Preuss]

I'm curious how Australia will do if they win their semi-final as I personally see many of their potentially big points coming from the countries in the 2nd semi with the likes of especially Sweden and Denmark, then possibly Norway/UK

And let us take into consideration that the Aussies need to get their staging right and have a working concept this year :?
And after last year's flop I believe that they shouldn't be happy with a top ten if they want to "justify" for Europe them taking part in the contest

 

[Alaska49]

I want answer this post, cause I know Im right, although Im in the Minority. The same happened in tthe Jury-Hate-Thread last year.

you mean the thread you single handedly killed by repeating "diaspora-adjusted" and "table midfield" untill all of us had to call an ambulance because we gouged our own eyes out? yes, after that thread we all knew you won't ever back down from your insanity. you are bad at numbers and words and i feel so sorry that someone ever told you otherwise. be better.

SF1 being more competitive was the talk of town last year and that was with LESS usually auto-qualifying countries. before we had the songs we actually thought SF2 would be the bloodbath one. many NQers of semi 1 would easily qualify in semi 2 by knocking serbia, slovenia and/or hungary out (as sad as that would be because those three countries were so good last year).

 

[Realest]

you mean the thread you single handedly killed by repeating "diaspora-adjusted" and "table midfield" untill all of us had to call an ambulance because we gouged our own eyes out? yes, after that thread we all knew you won't ever back down from your insanity. you are bad at numbers and words and i feel so sorry that someone ever told you otherwise. be better.

SF1 being more competitive was the talk of town last year and that was with LESS usually auto-qualifying countries. before we had the songs we actually thought SF2 would be the bloodbath one. many NQers of semi 1 would easily qualify in semi 2 by knocking serbia, slovenia and/or hungary out (as sad as that would be because those three countries were so good last year).

Oh boy, you hated mathematics at school from the bottom of the heart, didnt you? If Finland couldnt beat Hungary and Serbia (9th and 10th in SF2) neither with the Juries nor with the Televoters, then Sennak, Aisel and co couldnt as well. Semi1 was only Stronger at the Top because they had like 7-8 Topfavos and the Rest were fillers, while SF2 was stronger in the Width and had more competitive Songs, but less strong of course given the Final-Results. Please stop contradicting me all the Time, you dont have a chance against me. You didnt have last year in the Jurythread and you wont have in the Future, or just put me on your Ignorelist or get the f out of my way. And who the hell even are you that youre in the position to tell me that Im bad at numbers and Words?

 

[Ezio]

Both semifinals are very balanced as far as I can see. Semifinal 1 has the inconsistent qualifiers and and Semifinal 2 they more consistent qualifiers, however I dont see no 100% qualification guarantee or non-qualification guarantee for any country this year.

Winners and losers:

Semi 1 draw winners:
Obviously Cyprus - Greece and Georgia will add 48 points to their tally
Portugal - with Spain and France voting
Ukraine/Belarus/Poland triangle

Semi 1 draw losers:
Serbia - ended up either on top of a few countries and at rock bottom of all the rest of countries in recent years. Not enough allies in this semi.
San Marino
Belgium
Iceland


Semi 2 draw winners:
Denmark/Sweden/Norway triangle
Austria/Switzerland/Germany triangle, Austria ships with Netherlands, Switzerland with Italy
Lithuania with 3 allies: Ireland, UK, Latvia
Albania thanks to Italy and Macedonia and Switzerland

Semi 2 draw losers:
Croatia
Azerbaijan/Armenia 0 points exchange guaranteed

 

[Realest]

Semi 2 draw winners:

Austria/Switzerland/Germany triangle,

Unfortunately not, we are unpolitical countries who respect the spirit of eurovision in the opposite to other countries who share the same language. We were f.e. one of only 5 (out of 20) countries who gave 0 to Timebelle and therefore prevented them from qualifying.

 

[Sammy]

Of course at this point the odds are not really indicating anything reliable, but of all the songs that we know, Czech Republic is the highest followed by France, Spain and Albania (who is really low at the moment)

 

[Ezio]

Unfortunately not, we are unpolitical countries who respect the spirit of eurovision in the opposite to other countries who share the same language. We were f.e. one of only 5 (out of 20) countries who gave 0 to Timebelle and therefore prevented them from qualifying.

That's true for the fraudulent German juries each year, but televote is usually fine

 

[Realest]

That's true for the fraudulent German juries each year, but televote is usually fine

No, its the german Televoter who never vote for Switzerland.
Except 0 Points to Conchita (though she was 11/25 at least) the german Juries are fair. They gave 12 to Nadine, 2 to Makemakes and Nathan and 10 to Cesar. And unfortunately 0 to Zoe.

 

[Ezio]

Because there is no Swiss diaspora in Germany, but a lot of Germans living in Switzerland and Austria, and lots of Austrians living in Germany. And Austria's more jury friendly in general, however German jury votes are always completely in line and in 2014 they put Conchita hater #1 Sido into their jury for whatever reason.

 

[BorisBubbles]

I actually think this is an okay draw for Belgium and San Marino: the lack of clear voting blocks in that sf (other than arguably Belarus/Ukraine/Poland) + second half gives them a good fighting chance at qualifying, regardless of what their songs are. Their odds would be better if they had diasporia's or an ally (Belgium technically has France, but they're not as reliable as Netherlands or Ireland) but neither are deciding factors in a field this open.

This is a fantastic draw for Lithuania: The Lithuanian diasporia is one of the most fanatic ones in all of Eurovision and all of the LT diasporia countries are in the semi (all the ones Ezio mentioned + Norway) AND they got second half on top of that. If they can get a good song, they can qualify easily although the if-clause is doing most of the lifting in here lol.

The clear losers in the second semi are those with rubbish selections. In a field where you have 10 obvious qualifiers, if *any* of the outsiders is significantly better than one of the insider countries, prepare for a shock NQ, probably even more, depending on what is chosen. My eye is on Denmark or Austria for now, tentatively, as their draws are bad (and in case of Denmark because DMGP is allegedly terrible, but lol I don't ever bother with DMGP and I'm not planning on starting now). Sweden and Russia are probably safe, but otherwise, the second semi is pretty open.

 

[Sabiondo]

Semi 2 draw winners:
Denmark/Sweden/Norway triangle
Austria/Switzerland/Germany triangle, Austria ships with Netherlands, Switzerland with Italy
Lithuania with 3 allies: Ireland, UK, Latvia
Albania thanks to Italy and Macedonia and Switzerland

You forget also about Russia: With Azerbaijan, Armenia, Latvia, Moldova, Lithuania, and their diasporas in Italy, Germany and Croatia, at least they have 80 points for sure in the televoting, and only needs a media from Western Europe to QF in the final.

 

[Leydan]

Lithuania with 3 allies: Ireland, UK, Latvia

I mean, yeah 100% but ally is the wrong word. More like Prisoner.

 

[Lindon]