SemiFinal 1 is such a crapshoot lol. Ukraine and Australia are the only Overdog Nations in that semifinal and based on what we know about Australia Decides and Vidbir, both should be locks. I think Portugal could become locks as well, but only if they choose Conan. The rest, who the hell even knows, anything is possible right now.
SemiFinal 2 on the other hand is super stacked: There are seven clear faves: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Austria, Netherlands, Russia, Sweden and Romania. But none of them are guaranteed qualifiers, all of them have NQ'd before; It will depend on how good their songs are and on how well they will be staged. Stacked semifinals always lead to shock NQ's and I would've be too surprised if at least ONE of the countries I just mentioned NQ'd in favour of a likable underdog.