serhat won
water is wet
water is wet
ESC 2019 General Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Realest
- Start date
- Watchers 20
DanielLuis
Well-known member
- Joined
- March 14, 2011
- Posts
- 8,605
I think last year proved we can't say much based only on the allocation.
SF2 looked way strong on paper, with most of the typical heavywights performing there, and it was a terrible semi-final. I truly think half of the songs taht NQed in SF1 would have made it on SF2. Also a lot of traditional qualifiers failed to do qualify when they sent weaker songs, so nothing is set in stone.
SF2 looked way strong on paper, with most of the typical heavywights performing there, and it was a terrible semi-final. I truly think half of the songs taht NQed in SF1 would have made it on SF2. Also a lot of traditional qualifiers failed to do qualify when they sent weaker songs, so nothing is set in stone.
JonnyWest
Member
It's the fourth time in 6 contests that the pre-qualified nations are in this configuration...
SF1:+ host country (
SF2:
I've noticed this! So weird
I think Semi1 is still overrated, since it had more obvious Non-Qualifiers than SF2.
Since
was 11th in SF1 and 10th in SF2, I doubt that anyone from SF1 would have qualified in SF2 tbh.
BorisBubbles
Veteran
Nonsense. Greece, Azerbaijan and Armenia all barely NQ'd, for reasons that should be obvious. (They had terrible entries but strong built-in votes) In a mediocre semifinal, like the second, where the votes were less evenly distributed, those three should've slipped through into the final, just like Genealogy, Demi and Elnur had before, because of the diasporia vote. It's not rocket science.
Put any of the fringe qualifiers of the 2018 second semifinal into the first and they NQ. Lea and AWS are definitely dead in that roster. Balkanika and Waylon might perish as well. Put any of the fringe NQ's of the first SF in the second SF and you get the reverse result. Zibbz qualify easily. So does AISEL. Sennek, Sevak and Yianna all have a fighting chance.
It was a very competitive semifinal. Period.
Put any of the fringe qualifiers of the 2018 second semifinal into the first and they NQ. Lea and AWS are definitely dead in that roster. Balkanika and Waylon might perish as well. Put any of the fringe NQ's of the first SF in the second SF and you get the reverse result. Zibbz qualify easily. So does AISEL. Sennek, Sevak and Yianna all have a fighting chance.
It was a very competitive semifinal. Period.
DanielLuis
Well-known member
- Joined
- March 14, 2011
- Posts
- 8,605
I think Semi1 is still overrated, since it had more obvious Non-Qualifiers than SF2.
Since
Like [MENTION=16481]BorisBubbles[/MENTION] said, SF1 was way stronger. I mean, the highest placing song from the SF2 qualifiers was only 7th in the final and the SF winner only finished 14th. That alone is enough to show how much of a weak semi-final the second one was, they were all hopeless against the SF1 qualifiers on the grand final.
This is Nonsense. Greece only qualified (TV only) because they had all their Friends and Neighbours in the Semi. In Semi2 they would have had 0 Votingpower and this song obviously didnt have appeal to neutral Countries. Azerbaijan might have had a bit more Diasporapower in Semi2, but no corrupt Juries from GR and CY who gave this horrible Song high Points only because Kontoupoulos. Hungary on the Other Side had bad luck with the Juries in Semi2, because all Juries who liked this Song were from Semi1. And I hope I dont have to Explain that Hungary is worlds better than Azerbaijan. Armenia had more Allies in Semi1 than in Semi2 so this Song wouldnt stand a Chance either in Semi2. Btw. Elnur flopped in the TV so get your Facts right please.
And I hope youre not serious, if you think that Zibbz can qualify easily in a Semifinal where even Hungary had Trouble. Also a Semifinal where Saara Aalto gets 75 Televotes (compared to 23 in the Final) cant be competitive. So I dont see why Balkanika and Waylon should Struggle. And Sennek is overrated as hell.. Also Semi1 had more automatic NQS (Macedonia, Belarus, Iceland, Kroatia) than Semi2. So no, most of your Arguments are just wrong.
On the Top Semi1 was stronger, but definitely not in the Width.
Tough draw for us to say the least, because there are only two countries that we are almost guranteed to get points from, and
If we mess it up in our final, it´s possible that we will miss the final, every esc-fan Sweden-haters dream
and If we mess it up in our final, it´s possible that we will miss the final, every esc-fan Sweden-haters dream
I'd say Lithuania has 36 televote points sewn up:
are usually very generous
BorisBubbles
Veteran
None of your arguments make sense so I'll pick them apart one by one. And then I'll go to bed because I need my beauty sleep.
Any third parties are free to use this as soundtrack as you read through this entire post:
And apologies for any language mistakes in advance lmao :X
The context in Semi2 is different than Semi 1. Greece's "VotingPower" in SF1 was indeed more favourable in theory, but the Greek diasporia's all voted for Cyprus instead, because Cyprus was better than Greece last year. Remove Greece from that semifinal and they do better simply because Cyprus isn't taking culture votes away from them. Mind that I think Yianna still NQ's in semi final 2, but likely she finishes 12th-13th, rather than 15th, which is a better result.
Azerbaijan would have qualified under the old system. They were very, very close. Armenia's presence in the semifinal was sufficient to kill them off because they gave AISEL zero instead of the 16-24 points she would've received from Russia or Georgia. Besides, Azerbaijan doesn't do diasporiae, they're all about alliances, lobbying and point-swapping: Their most loyal partners (Russia, Malta, San Marino, Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia), were all in the other Semifinal.
We have no clue how well Hungary would've done in the SF1 Jury vote because Hungary did poorly in both jury votes they had to face. You can't guarantee that any jury would put them above a typical jury pets like Cesár and Sennek, or even mild jury pets such as AISEL or ZiBBZ. The fact that Hungary had a better song than Azerbaijan in your eyes, is something I agree with but is ultimately irrelevant. What *we* think about an entry doesn't matter. What *the collective* (jury or audience) thinks is what determines a qualifier and a non-qualifier. Besides, Juries have a powerful tool in their arsenal the audience doesn't have access to: they can downvote entries they don't like: AISEL is safe because she doesn't offend, while AWS are the opposite, hence why her [jury] odds are always better in any situation.
Again, same Argument as before. Armenia is closer (both geographically and politically) to both Russia and Georgia than it is to Belarus and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan not voting for Armenia in any situation made their odds worse and they would do better in SF2 simply *because* they aren't guaranteed 0 points from one of the participants. Like Yianna, Sevak's probably not advancing in SF2 either, but just as likely finishes above Latvia and Malta in the overall tally. (largely thanks to the televote)
Elnur flopping in the Televote does not break my argument (that be barely slipped by thanks to being Azeri). Besides the jury vote is the closest thing Azerbaijan has to a diasporia, let's be honest.
Not the same votebase. AWS was screamy metal fireworks and an established tumblr meme. ZiBBZ was a polished cerebral indiepop song about mental health. One is televote, the other is jury vote. ZiBBZ would have received the jury votes that went to Christabelle and Lea Sirk, with precise consistency and given that their televote results were in the lower point range (as opposed to consistently getting zeroes), they probably would've done even better in SF2, as it was the weaker semi (as perceived not only by myself, but most observers and again, majority rules). ZiBBZ beat Christabelle and Laura Rizotto at the very worst.
Projection of own opinions. Saara Aalto had a good draw and was CLEARLY superior at singing and putting up a show than the mediocrities that she was sandwiched between (Armenia and Greece). Saara's problems in the finale were 1) a terrible, terrible draw and 2) severe Aunggun syndrome in that she tried to do so many things at once that her act became a wash of randomness. It worked in SF1 because again, she was on late and there were fewer songs to pick from. Her doing well in the televote does not make the SF less competitive, Finland still had to work hardfor her slot, as did the other qualifying countries in that semi.
They would have to work harder for their meal. Waylon would have to compete with Eugent for jury votes, and the jury as you certainly know clearly favoured Eugent in this case. Waylon would be guaranteed 24 points from Belgium he didn't get in SF2, but whether that results in a high point tally remans to be seen (since all the Scandinavian countries that dropped points on him remain in the other SF. I can't imagine Macedonia or Cyprus being fold of Waylon's brand of country rock)
Balkanika is dead simply because all of the Yugo entries died in that SF. Yes, Macedonia and Croatia were worse (and either them or Switz would be tagged out of this semi because they share the same pot as Serbia), but still: if a diasporia vote isn't enough to save fuckin' Armenia from a pathetic 15th place in a SF in which they are an expected qualifier, it may not be enough to save Serbia from non-qualification in a SF where they're borderline at best. It worked for Ieva, but that's because Ieva is awesome and everyone (with taste) loves her. Juries would have destroyed Balkanika in this SF as well. If they qualify, it would've been in 10th position (opposed to 9th), at the expense of another televote fave, almost certainly Saara.
Sennek definitely IS overrated, in fact I've posted endless tirads about her here, on Discord AND on tumblr. Even so, like ZiBBZ she would 100% nibble points from Christabelle and Laura, while also scoring better in the televote because of the Dutch being present in her semifinal (unless she is swapped with Waylon). She came very close to qualification in SF1, it would've been even closer in SF2.
You're destroying your own argument: SF1 had more automatic NQs, but also too many automatic Qs: SF1 had: Belgium, Bulgaria, La Forza, Armenia, Greece, Azerbaijan, Lie to Me, Netta, Eleni, Saara and Austria. These were the qualifiers everyone expected, that's eleven of them. Later, Lithuania, Ireland, Switzerland and Albania entered the fray with good songs (or in ireland's case, effective staging.) Those 10 Qualifier seats suddenly became hotly contested and that's what made it competitive. There were fifteen entries that would be considered qualifiers in most other years, but only 10 of them could advance to the finale. Nobody was safe, other than Netta. You knew that going into that semifinal at least ONE fave was going to die a horrible death (and everybody knew it was Sennek, but still) in favour of an underdog (which I, correctly as it turned out, predicted to be Ieva :
)SF2: the opposite: Everyone and their dog knew that Sweden, Australia, Ukraine and Norway were locks, and that Denmark and Netherlands were extremely likely. The 4 other spots were open to anyone in theory, but not quite: Moldova and Hungary impressed in rehearsals. Effectively, the second semifinal was a formality as 80% of the results were already determined before they even happened. The only excitement came from who the last two qualifiers were going to be, which ultimately became Slovenia and Serbia. There was no contestation about the first eight qualifiers though: they were obvious from pretty much second one, hence the lack of competition.
I'll let the others be the judge whether my arguments are as wrong as you claim they were, but I respectfully disagree.
I'd say Lithuania has 36 televote points sewn up:
Add at least 10 from Latvia as well
Preuss
Well-known member
- Joined
- April 19, 2015
- Posts
- 3,145
SF1 was stronger, and it's blatantly stupid to say it wasn't when the SF1 qualifiers did significantly better than SF2 qualifiers. Especially in the televote.
Top 4 in SF2 ended up like this in the GF:
Sweden 7th (did bad with televote)
Moldova 10th (okay with televote)
Norway 14th (okay with televote)
Australia 20th (awful with televote
Top 4 in SF2 ended up like this in the GF:
Sweden 7th (did bad with televote)
Moldova 10th (okay with televote)
Norway 14th (okay with televote)
Australia 20th (awful with televote