Croatia CROATIA 2024 - Baby Lasagna - Rim Tim Tagi Dim

[ESC United Mod Team]

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[4815162342]

Looking up how many jurors put each song in their top 3 last year (there were 183 jurors overall):
Sweden 112
Italy 45
Finland 44
Israel 42
Estonia 36
...

How many times were these put into the last 3 places:
Finland 28
Israel 5
Estonia 3
Italy 1
Sweden 0


I know a lot of people say you cant compare international juries in national finals with eurovision juries, but I'll do it anyway.
UMK had 7 countries voting and only 7 songs to chose from. In that lineup Cha Cha Cha won by a huge margin (72 vs 44 points).
Baby Lasagna has improved a lot from Dora, so I am not sure how fair the comparison is. Dora also only had 4 international juries. There were also a lot more songs to chose from, but Dora was a rather weak selection:

Lying Eyes 30
Voljena Ženo 28
Rim tim tagi dim 26
Tišine 26
Babaroga 23

Other than that we have Eurojury. Finland ended up on an okay 10th place with 81 points. Croatia ended up on a great 6th place with 152 points. Both entries were judged by their studio version. In Finlands case the live version is the vastly superior version (even though the vocals are a bit meh on the final night), for Croatia the music video is clearly better.

 

[0scar]

Calling it out now, will be the Malta 2021 of this year, it has suddenly dawned on me.
Being first in the odds at some point close to Eurovision week and then ending up lower top 10.

 

[Smudy]

Odds shortening very quickly now. Is it happening?

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

A watered down Kaarija ain't winning this. Not with the televote when Joost is right here and most certainly not with the juries who are not benevolent with this type of entries. A fun song, never a winning one.

 

[gigi_copp3]

The hype is really high, hope this is enough to a Croatian win

 

[Ajeje Brazorf]

Looking up how many jurors put each song in their top 3 last year (there were 183 jurors overall):
Sweden 112
Italy 45
Finland 44
Israel 42
Estonia 36
...

How many times were these put into the last 3 places:
Finland 28
Israel 5
Estonia 3
Italy 1
Sweden 0


I know a lot of people say you cant compare international juries in national finals with eurovision juries, but I'll do it anyway.
UMK had 7 countries voting and only 7 songs to chose from. In that lineup Cha Cha Cha won by a huge margin (72 vs 44 points).
Baby Lasagna has improved a lot from Dora, so I am not sure how fair the comparison is. Dora also only had 4 international juries. There were also a lot more songs to chose from, but Dora was a rather weak selection:

Lying Eyes 30
Voljena Ženo 28
Rim tim tagi dim 26
Tišine 26
Babaroga 23

Other than that we have Eurojury. Finland ended up on an okay 10th place with 81 points. Croatia ended up on a great 6th place with 152 points. Both entries were judged by their studio version. In Finlands case the live version is the vastly superior version (even though the vocals are a bit meh on the final night), for Croatia the music video is cle

A watered down Kaarija ain't winning this. Not with the televote when Joost is right here and most certainly not with the juries who are not benevolent with this type of entries. A fun song, never a winning one.

I'm having the wildest dream, but imo Bambie Thug is winning the televote if she goes to the final... I have this strange feeling. She will obviously NOT win Eurovision, because juries Will let her down, but her Q can be crucial for Baby Lasagna's hopes of winning the whole thing.

She is pulling a "KeIIno" and Eurofans were not ready for this. She has tripled her odds after rehearsals, was out of the top 10 before them and it's currently top5 in the odds, so someone is severly putting money on her. That Is a major problem for Baby Lasagna's winning chances, which by the way are very high: if Bambie collapses, Baby Lasagna has a televoting victory in the Grand Finale in his pocket, otherwise... I really don't know.

 

[theditz83]

I'm having the wildest dream, but imo Bambie Thug is winning the televote if she goes to the final... I have this strange feeling. She will obviously NOT win Eurovision, because juries Will let her down, but her Q can be crucial for Baby Lasagna's hopes of winning the whole thing.

No chance. Baby Lasagna is far more acceptable and closer to mainstream taste than Bambie, so it will stand a greater chance of hooking more of casual voters in to me. Bambie will have her die-hard fans, but I foresee Baby Lasagna getting greater support from a wider range of ages and groups.

 

[soulm8]

People forgets jury is always voting for odds favorite as they want to be cool with what people like. I did not expect Netta to be liked by the jury at all!

 

[4815162342]

People forgets jury is always voting for odds favorite as they want to be cool with what people like. I did not expect Netta to be liked by the jury at all!

Eurojury is going on since 2014. Only Tattoo got a better avg score than Toy.
Cyprus actually overtook Israel in the odds during Rehearsals and stayed like that until the final day.

One year prior Gabbani was 1st in the odds all season after he won SanRemo. He landslided the presspoll. Only brought him 126 jury points in the final.

 

[Ajeje Brazorf]

People forgets jury is always voting for odds favorite as they want to be cool with what people like. I did not expect Netta to be liked by the jury at all!

Yet Duncan, Måneskin, Kalush DIDN'T won the juries.

 

[b4ld3r]

The difference between this and Cha Cha Cha in terms of the jury score is that Finland had one of the greatest Eurovision stagings of all time. Every second something new happened. A true blockbuster, choreographed to perfection.

While the horrible outfit from Dora is thankfully gone, the other parts unfortunately remain largely the same. Benke Rydman this is not.

I don't really mind this song anymore, just have sort of accepted that it is one of those that I'll never fully understand the appeal of.

 

[MopManMoss]

The full performance came to me in a dream yeah a dream that's right and I have to say the use of colour in this staging is really striking

 

[NeoTen]

I don't dislike it, but I think it's gonna depend on where Ireland is placed, as it's fishing out of the same pond as all the top 5 in odds. It's catchy, coherent enough, his technique is decent but not that good. It's all gonna depend if where the EBU is gonna place Ireland.
But, I must say, comparing it to Occidentali's Karma, the choreo is much better, as I think that tanked that song.

 

[soulm8]

The difference between this and Cha Cha Cha in terms of the jury score is that Finland had one of the greatest Eurovision stagings of all time. Every second something new happened. A true blockbuster, choreographed to perfection.

While the horrible outfit from Dora is thankfully gone, the other parts unfortunately remain largely the same. Benke Rydman this is not.

I don't really mind this song anymore, just have sort of accepted that it is one of those that I'll never fully understand the appeal of.

You are right. Cha cha cha had one of the greatest stagings. One problem though: the song was missing. Impossible to vote for this unless you like clown acts. Croatia this year is totally different, sure hits the vibe, but so much far from the joke Cha cha cha.

 

[Alcatraz]

Calling it out now, will be the Malta 2021 of this year, it has suddenly dawned on me.
Being first in the odds at some point close to Eurovision week and then ending up lower top 10.

See ya on Saturday.

 

[aef]

Same exact thoughts. Do you guys remember how "Cha Cha Cha" was received last year? Well, if you don't, the hype for that song was 10 times higher than this year's "Rim Tim Tagi Dim" hype. People were talking about it day and night on every Eurovision Forum and that lasted from February to July/August. And last year It was only Käärja vs Loreen, nobody else in the mirrors: before Eurovision it was clear one of the two would have won the entire thing.

This year It doesn't seems to be the same, It just isn't the same scenario: the field Is more open. These are the reasons that makes me doubtful about a Croatian win. Maybe Baby Lasagna's Will win anyway, but I don't see his clear dominance with televoters...

And talking about the televoting winner - is more likely in my opinion. Or maybe it will be a close race between those two, I feel like will be successful in Northern and Western Europe while will be successful mostly in Eastern Europe.

 

[theditz83]

Netherlands will definitely be a potential public vote winner (I know I'll likely be one of the ones voting for it along with Austria), but the jury appeal for Croatia will likely be greater than Netherlands.

I still feel this year is one of the most unpredictable of recent years for sure!

 

[Grinch]

Cha cha cha had one of the greatest stagings. One problem though: the song was missing.

Quite the opposite.

 

[Kentish]

3 months ago he was like a deer in headlights, now he's a competent and confident performer on the big stage. Respect.

In the end, Croatia's most probable faith is to fall 2nd to the jury winner due to the congested televote (Bambie's emergence is bad, bad news for Croatia). But that would still be a stellar result Marco should be very proud of.

 

[0scar]

See ya on Saturday.

Don't get me wrong I'd be happy to be proven otherwise but I feel like it isn't going to be the runaway winner the odds suggest it is going to be.