Who is a real contender for the victory?

[aef]

Yet another person saying they don't think Spain is a contender without stating any actual reason apart from "eh I just don't think so".

I mean what’s your f*ing problem? It’s his opinion and he made his point quite clear.

 

[MopManMoss]

Yet another person saying they don't think Spain is a contender without stating any actual reason apart from "eh I just don't think so".

Do you think the general public will justify why they vote for things or why they dont like something?, its often just vibes for people not everyone can articulate why they feel certain ways towards songs

 

[AndroZeus]

There's a difference between "I wouldn't vote for this" and "the public won't vote for this". I personally think Norway's song is total trash, but that doesn't mean I think the public won't vote for it. My personal opinion doesn't matter at all in the big picture, and nor does anyone else's.

 

[lacrymea]

There's a difference between "I wouldn't vote for this" and "the public won't vote for this". I personally think Norway's song is total trash, but that doesn't mean I think the public won't vote for it. My personal opinion doesn't matter at all in the big picture, and nor does anyone else's.

Yeah. For me, personally, Norway is second to last this year. Do I think people will vote for it? Absolutely.

 

[midnightsun]

Some random speculation…

Jury vote is gonna be exciting this year.
I personally see Loreen winning it, but at the same time, Sweden could unexpectedly not be on top, because this year something happened that never happened before:

Three Scandinavian countries are in the top 4 in most polls, votes, rankings, ogae, betting odds.

Scandinavians are known as neighbour voters, so they almost never not have the Scandi countries in their top 10, doesn’t matter if jury or public. At least the Sweden - Norway connection is strong.

Question is: will Scandi juries vote for each other this year when most of them are favourites? Some countries played foul in the past and ranked their main opponent lower. Do the Scandis too or will they vote accordingly to their "taste" (neighbor)?

And what about Iceland and Denmark?
They have to split their votes this year and if I‘m not completely mistaken (but honestly I could totally be wrong because I don’t remember) both countries have a soft spot for Norway rather than Sweden?!

Can Norway even win the jury vote instead of Sweden? Because Sweden and Finland could also give their 12s to Norway in case they don’t want to vote for each other.

There were some countries in the past (Germany one of them oh so often!) which liked to stay neutral and chose someone completely different from the top 2, not appearing biased. These votes could also go to Norway this year because it’s in the top 5, therefore explainable and believable, but not top 2 in all the polls, rankings, ogae, betting odds etc.

On the other hand, we will never forget how juries destroyed Norway 2019, so that is something that would cancel it out.

Another point to discuss:

When it comes to the final ranking in the GF there will most probably not a top 6 that ONLY consists of Western countries, like it does now in polls and odds. (By Western I mean everything that’s not Eastern, also including Southern and Northern countries.)

At least one country of either Balkans or Ex-Sovjets or anything past the German border will get a spot in the higher to middle top 10, because of the televote. These countries also tend to do a lot of neighbour voting and there is diaspora so I expect at least one country of the current top betting odds to fail and an Eastern country taking its place. And you still can’t rule out Ukraine! I expect them to end up in the top 6 again.

Spain will also be a hit or miss and I‘m surprised that some people really doubt that. Thing is, you have to like that specific kind of music and to some it’s just a pain in the ear (including me; Spain is my last place this year). And not all of the people all over Europe will love it. Conan for example failed too. Typical FFF. France last year was very specific and failed. Tulia failed because some people didn’t like white voices. Same fate could happen to Czechia this year.
But it could of course do very well as well if people appreciate something unusual.

 

[Sherlock]

Norway 2019 >>>>> Norway 2023

I don't think Norway will get many jury votes.

 

[MopManMoss]

Norway 2019 >>>>> Norway 2023

I don't think Norway will get many jury votes.

If she does the whistle note as bad as she has done at some pre parties she’ll be lucky to get any jury votes

 

[12Pointsgoto.....]

If she does the whistle note as bad as she has done at some pre parties she’ll be lucky to get any jury votes

How come her National Final performance was great vocally? Didn't she say that she wasn't using autotune?

 

[midnightsun]

Norway 2019 >>>>> Norway 2023

I agree here. Yet I can see countries voting for Norway, because of female empowerment etc.

I expect Norway doing well in the German vote (both jury/televote). It’s the kind of music people listen to here. But if she doesn’t deliver live… yeah, that’s bad.

I think contenders for the jury top 5 are definitely France and Spain, the letter is a bit of a surprise bag though.

I don’t see Italy in the jury top 5. You would think this is a perfect jury song but time has proven juries often didn’t favour Italy. Most of the times they did better with the public.

Juries also love mainstream pop so I also expect Israel and UK doing well in the jury vote, even Austria, if they nail it live.

Finland is a bit harder to predict, I think it could end up #3-4 in the jury vote. I don’t think it will win the jury vote but as always, ESC is always up for a surprise!

Will Finland win the televote? I don’t know. I‘d say 90% yes but there is a slight chance it won’t work as expected outside the ESC bubble. In doubt, mainstream songs from Sweden, Norway, France or Italy will do better.

 

[MAD20]

I can't see not winning the whole thing to be honest... Maybe and could get the trophy but chances are low low low.

 

[Brandt]

Unfortunately Ukraine may also pull another win because of the pity votes that has been experienced since last year's edition. Ukraine does not really need a strong entry to get a huge amount of televotes because people are voting for the sympathy of the situation. Obviously all the audience will know that Ukraine didn't host this year because of the conflict going on in the region, so the war will still be relevant this edition as much as I don't want to see it being the case. Even in the odds people are expecting Ukraine to win as they know ultimately it won't depend on the song itself but the politic situation happening in that area.

 

[dizzydjc]

Spain is definitely winning the jury vote. 100%. She nails the vocals spot on each time.

Whether televotes will go for it as well remains to be seen, I would expect no though. This is why I do think it will be a bit more open on who clinches the win. Sweden just needs to come second or Top 5 in the jury vote to ensure that path to victory I think.

 

[midnightsun]

Ukraine may also pull another win

I think that’s rather out of the question.
(Even though I‘d prefer the song to many in the top 10 odds.)

Jury vote will be too low this year to make up for the televote, even though they‘re gonna win the televote again with a big margin (which I doubt - even if they may win the televote it won’t be with the same margin as last year).

I will probably come top 10 in the end but not winning.

 

[Funix]

Some random speculation…

Jury vote is gonna be exciting this year.
I personally see Loreen winning it, but at the same time, Sweden could unexpectedly not be on top, because this year something happened that never happened before:

Three Scandinavian countries are in the top 4 in most polls, votes, rankings, ogae, betting odds.

Scandinavians are known as neighbour voters, so they almost never not have the Scandi countries in their top 10, doesn’t matter if jury or public. At least the Sweden - Norway connection is strong.

Question is: will Scandi juries vote for each other this year when most of them are favourites? Some countries played foul in the past and ranked their main opponent lower. Do the Scandis too or will they vote accordingly to their "taste" (neighbor)?

And what about Iceland and Denmark?
They have to split their votes this year and if I‘m not completely mistaken (but honestly I could totally be wrong because I don’t remember) both countries have a soft spot for Norway rather than Sweden?!

Can Norway even win the jury vote instead of Sweden? Because Sweden and Finland could also give their 12s to Norway in case they don’t want to vote for each other.

There were some countries in the past (Germany one of them oh so often!) which liked to stay neutral and chose someone completely different from the top 2, not appearing biased. These votes could also go to Norway this year because it’s in the top 5, therefore explainable and believable, but not top 2 in all the polls, rankings, ogae, betting odds etc.

On the other hand, we will never forget how juries destroyed Norway 2019, so that is something that would cancel it out.

Another point to discuss:

When it comes to the final ranking in the GF there will most probably not a top 6 that ONLY consists of Western countries, like it does now in polls and odds. (By Western I mean everything that’s not Eastern, also including Southern and Northern countries.)

At least one country of either Balkans or Ex-Sovjets or anything past the German border will get a spot in the higher to middle top 10, because of the televote. These countries also tend to do a lot of neighbour voting and there is diaspora so I expect at least one country of the current top betting odds to fail and an Eastern country taking its place. And you still can’t rule out Ukraine! I expect them to end up in the top 6 again.

Spain will also be a hit or miss and I‘m surprised that some people really doubt that. Thing is, you have to like that specific kind of music and to some it’s just a pain in the ear (including me; Spain is my last place this year). And not all of the people all over Europe will love it. Conan for example failed too. Typical FFF. France last year was very specific and failed. Tulia failed because some people didn’t like white voices. Same fate could happen to Czechia this year.
But it could of course do very well as well if people appreciate something unusual.

You can already be 100% sure that 24 points from Denmark will go to Sweden. It's nearly the same level as the never ending Greece-Cyprus point trading, but only one-way.

I share you point about Spain. It was the same argument that I was trying to formulate earlier in this thread. It WILL split and I'm not sure that it will have a outcome in Spain's favor

 

[marty]

I think that’s rather out of the question.
(Even though I‘d prefer the song to many in the top 10 odds.)

Jury vote will be too low this year to make up for the televote, even though they‘re gonna win the televote again with a big margin (which I doubt - even if they may win the televote it won’t be with the same margin as last year).

I will probably come top 10 in the end but not winning.

Still the televote for Ukraine could influence who will win in the end. because I think there will be a difference between the eastern european countries and the western countries with more twelves for ukraine in the eastern countries. that could help the song that is stronger in the western countries.

 

[aef]

There's a difference between "I wouldn't vote for this" and "the public won't vote for this". I personally think Norway's song is total trash, but that doesn't mean I think the public won't vote for it. My personal opinion doesn't matter at all in the big picture, and nor does anyone else's.

No that’s just not true, that’s not the point. This thread has never been about personal taste or personal country preferences. I tried to explain it to you a few times now but obviously you just won’t understand it.

(For example I pretty much enjoy this year but I still see the possibility of an underwhelming jury result for her)

This thread is about sharing everyone’s personal (of course subjective) thoughts on who could possibly win this year. Yes, nobody knows about the actual outcome but that’s more or less the fun part of this thread. Just sharing thoughts. If you think this is pointless anyway then there is no need to take part in the discussion tbh…

 

[Judas]

I expect Sweden to go for another win this year.

The song is fan favorite and it streams well. Loreen's reputation is not that old and her return is not like Alexander Rybak's. I am not a huge fan of Tattoo (I wasn't a huge fan of Euphoria either), but I can see her winning again this year.

Among favorites, Finland or Norway's win would please me more, but Norway's hosting was quite cheap and lazy so I would not really prefer NRK taking the hosting responsibilities again.

 

[PollyWantsACracker]

IMV Sweden and Norway are not contenders for the win.

I think their odds are overbloated by The Bubble's predictable preferences as these songs are simply "perfect little Eurovision chants". These preferences could be decisive in the semis which general audience doesn't watch, but on the night of Grand Final everyone tunes in.

Televote could find both Sweden and Norway as the songs that have been heard too many times, are not fresh and do not motivate to vote.

I find Austria, Israel, Finland and Serbia as true televote baits.

Also some songs will work better with televote than you expect, such as Germany, Australia, France and Ukraine (the latter not because of refugees to be clear) because they target, by evoking older popular musical styles, niche audience of mature generations. And these people watch Eurovision on Saturday night.

As regards the juries, you are all overlooking that Sweden aside there are too many jury baits of top notch vocals, and some have great production behind them and even more innovative songs. Some are:

1. Spain
2. Estonia
3. Armenia
4. Georgia
5. Israel (yes her vocal is outstanding)
6. Italy
7. Cyprus

Therefore, predicting 40% probability in the odds for Loreen to win is absolutely unrealistic, and Norway as a contender for win is out of question really.

Also don't rely on streaming numbers from platforms as most people still don't use them and these platforms function on algorithms that compel people to stream songs they wouldn't want to hear. The biggest one is also Swedish own.

As an example, streaming data for Croatia show Sweden is the most streamed and Finland nowhere to be found.

But in the week after UMK and MelFest, Kaarija reached #3 place trending on YouTube in Croatia, while Loreen came #5.

That means more people in Croatia who still prefer YouTube listened to Cha Cha Cha than Tattoo. Yet this crucial data is nowhere to be found online next to streaming numbers.

That means streaming data do not show the whole picture and do not reflect real popularity of a song.

 

[GermanBango]

Sweden ist the only real contender tbh. Like who else is supposed to do well with both voting parties?
Finland will be tanked by the juries 100%, same goes for Norway and Austria. France on the other hand will be tanked by the public. Spain seems like a song that could to ok with both but ok won't be enough for a Top 5 placement. As for Israel it probably depends on her vocals. The only one that I can see going top 7 with both is actually Italy. Ukraine is a bit of a dark horse ... the song is rather weak but ... well it's Ukraine.

 

[Citelis]

Finland is not going to be tanked by juries. He will probably be 2nd or 3rd and 1st in t/v while Sweden is going to be 1st in juries but without the massive points some people think so Finland winning is very possible imo. The closer we get to Eurovision the hype around Finland's entry increases which is a sign of a very good result coming.