Who is a real contender for the victory?

[SpiritofKeiino]

My thoughts right now:

Norway won't win - I think it will come 6-10th in both jury and televote. I also have a feeling that if it and some other favourites draw 1st half in the GF, that Norway will be sacrificed with a slot before 9. Hope I'm wrong.

Italy isn't a winner - but has the ingredients to do well in both jury and televote, could be top 5 in both.

France - I still feel this isn't a winner. If vocals are great, top 5 in jury. Maybe top 5 in televote if good staging and on late in the running order. Could get forgotten by televoters if on early in 1st half. Overall I don't believe that it will get the support from the public that it would need to win.

Finland - I don't believe it will win. Top 5 televote, between 6-10 in juries, I feel that its televote will not be enough to compensate for its 'good but not amazing' jury score. It won't 'run away' with the televote enough to overcome the jury shortfall.

Ukraine - not a winner - televote will be strong (top 5 likely), juries won't tank it but won't give it enough to win. I feel this entry lacks the momentum it needs to win.

Austria - I don't think it will get enough combined jury and televote to win although it will do well in both I think. Very staging dependent.

Spain - hard to predict how it lands. If staging and vocals are nailed it could be top 5 in televote and jury, but I'm not sure. I could see jury ranking it 6-10 but not lower than that.

Sweden - most likely for me to win right now by a process of eliminating the others. I can see it landing anywhere from 1st to 7th in the televote. Most likely around 3rd or 4th in televote combined with 1st or 2nd in the jury is enough for it to win.
If it lands around 6th in the televote it leaves the door open for someone else to take the crown, if there is another act who comes top 5 in jury and televote.

So in summary I see Sweden as the most likely winner, maybe Spain as outside chance or Austria if they surprise us all. I think Finland's chance is low, unfortunately.

 

[rasmuslights]

My thoughts right now:

Norway won't win - I think it will come 6-10th in both jury and televote. I also have a feeling that if it and some other favourites draw 1st half in the GF, that Norway will be sacrificed with a slot before 9. Hope I'm wrong.

Italy isn't a winner - but has the ingredients to do well in both jury and televote, could be top 5 in both.

France - I still feel this isn't a winner. If vocals are great, top 5 in jury. Maybe top 5 in televote if good staging and on late in the running order. Could get forgotten by televoters if on early in 1st half. Overall I don't believe that it will get the support from the public that it would need to win.

Finland - I don't believe it will win. Top 5 televote, between 6-10 in juries, I feel that its televote will not be enough to compensate for its 'good but not amazing' jury score. It won't 'run away' with the televote enough to overcome the jury shortfall.

Ukraine - not a winner - televote will be strong (top 5 likely), juries won't tank it but won't give it enough to win. I feel this entry lacks the momentum it needs to win.

Austria - I don't think it will get enough combined jury and televote to win although it will do well in both I think. Very staging dependent.

Spain - hard to predict how it lands. If staging and vocals are nailed it could be top 5 in televote and jury, but I'm not sure. I could see jury ranking it 6-10 but not lower than that.

Sweden - most likely for me to win right now by a process of eliminating the others. I can see it landing anywhere from 1st to 7th in the televote. Most likely around 3rd or 4th in televote combined with 1st or 2nd in the jury is enough for it to win.
If it lands around 6th in the televote it leaves the door open for someone else to take the crown, if there is another act who comes top 5 in jury and televote.

So in summary I see Sweden as the most likely winner, maybe Spain as outside chance or Austria if they surprise us all. I think Finland's chance is low, unfortunately.

agree with almost every single prediction. it's quite obvious imo idk why people don't see that.

but I kinda think Austria will not be in the top 5. i don't think the jury will be crazy about it and it's a really hard song to stage imo.

 

[Citelis]

Love the optimism, but let's remember that Ukraine 2021 came only 9th with the juries. They tanked Kateryna who actually had very difficult lines to sing and did that perfectly (with one lung only). They placed that chicken from Moscow with 135 back vocals higher than Kate.

We can loosely compare Kaarija to Finland 2021 when it was also a televote bait and came only 10th with the juries.

So, to be honest, as Kaarija doesn't sing at all almost throughout the whole song, it will be quite difficult for him to nail even top 10.

I love Cha Cha Cha and it would be a fair winner, but the voting sytem as it is cannot make it happen.

IMO we'll have a surprise winner this year from the options such as Austria, Spain and Israel, that are very different from the rest of the entries.

I still stand by my opinion Loreen is not a winner, 2021 scenario had shown that the juries and the bubble split and disperse votes on classic clichée female Eurovision acts. This year these are Norway, Georgia, Sweden, Estonia, Lithuania.

Loreen can be Loreen, but the song is just awful, repetitive, and she mumbles those verses. The lyrics are worse than Unicorn, at least that one can be sold as political. Tattoo is so bad, noone's that deaf.

Can't fully support what i'm going to say but i think that Ukraine 2021 is way more anti-jury than Finland 2023 which means that if Ukraine managed a top10 with juries in 2021 then Finland in jury top5 is a sure thing this year.
Also i don't remember Ukraine in 2021 ever being considered a potential winner unlike Finland this year.

 

[GermanBango]

Can't fully support what i'm going to say but i think that Ukraine 2021 is way more anti-jury than Finland 2023 which means that if Ukraine managed a top10 with juries in 2021 then Finland in jury top5 is a sure thing this year.
Also i don't remember Ukraine in 2021 ever being considered a potential winner unlike Finland this year.

Finland isn't Ukraine though. One cannot deny that generally speaking Ukraine (and other countries as well) has always had lots and lots of ... let's call it "friends". Ukrainian entries therefore start at a different level than countries like Finland.
Also I would dare to disagree on Ukraine 2021 being less jury friendly than Finland 2023. Vocally alone there are worlds between those two and that is usually something that juries having an eye on.

 

[PollyWantsACracker]

Finland isn't Ukraine though. One cannot deny that generally speaking Ukraine (and other countries as well) has always had lots and lots of ... let's call it "friends". Ukrainian entries therefore start at a different level than countries like Finland.
Also I would dare to disagree on Ukraine 2021 being less jury friendly than Finland 2023. Vocally alone there are worlds between those two and that is usually something that juries having an eye on.

I agree, vocal is a mandatory parameter to rate by a juror and he has to fill the minutes of voting accordingly, before a notary!

There's no way Kaarija could be rated in regards vocals higher than Ukraine 2021.

Other criteria they rate are composition (Shum was more complex), staging and overall impression, and in latter 2 Kaarija could surpass Ukraine 2021.

That's all. No real advantage.

 

[Citelis]

Finland isn't Ukraine though. One cannot deny that generally speaking Ukraine (and other countries as well) has always had lots and lots of ... let's call it "friends". Ukrainian entries therefore start at a different level than countries like Finland.
Also I would dare to disagree on Ukraine 2021 being less jury friendly than Finland 2023. Vocally alone there are worlds between those two and that is usually something that juries having an eye on.

Have to admit that at least on the first part you are not wrong. It seems that Ukraine is capable of getting always the maximum of their entries like no other country in Eurovision.