Who is a real contender for the victory?

[lasse braun]

I truly can’t believe this, and are mentioned by so many of you, I must be living in a parallel universe

lasse lives this year in the parallel universe of .
any questions?
p.s. for plan B i have a secret hyper tunnel button and can switch fast to the parallel universe of .

 

[TiagoFS]

The only two contenders are Spain and Sweden. Performance / running order will be decisive.

 

[HarryUK]

The lack of Let 3 in this thread is gross misrepresentation

 

[nudiecrudi]

Not saying that Italy is a contender for the win, but i think that the fandome is underestimating Due Vite. Maybe because Marco is hidding his cards not participating in any of the pre-parties. We'll have clearer ideas during the first rehearsals.

 

[Zeus]

I can see a path to victory for only a few. To begin with, there are potential televote magnets who will flop a bit with the juries I think, like Austria, Serbia and Moldova. Then there are potential jury magnets who could flop with the televotes, like Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia and Italy.

- T: 220-270 | J: 300-350
- T: 290-340 | J: 110-160
- T: 150-200 | J: 160-210
- T: 170-220 | J: 130-180

These are the most likely outcomes imo. But Spain could surprise at the televoting, so there is a tiny path for them. Norway will be harder.

Both and have a tiny chance to win with a good average score, but it requires to flop extremely hard in the televoting and/or to flop extremely hard with the juries.

 

[aef]

I can see a path to victory for only a few. To begin with, there are potential televote magnets who will flop a bit with the juries I think, like Austria, Serbia and Moldova. Then there are potential jury magnets who could flop with the televotes, like Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia and Italy.

- T: 220-270 | J: 300-350
- T: 290-340 | J: 110-160
- T: 150-200 | J: 160-210
- T: 170-220 | J: 130-180

These are the most likely outcomes imo. But Spain could surprise at the televoting, so there is a tiny path for them. Norway will be harder.

Both and have a tiny chance to win with a good average score, but it requires to flop extremely hard in the televoting and/or to flop extremely hard with the juries.

These numbers for ... You know, we all don't know the outcome by now and we need to wait but I'm so amazed by the fact that is once again so overhyped. Tbh I'm predicting something like 30-80 jury points and 0-40 televoting points. Don't get me wrong, I guess it's a quality song but why should the average viewer vote for this? Juries also tend to vote for safe choices, this definitely isn't one. It's giving me huge 2022 vibes, talking about the possible result.

I do very much agree with your and numbers though.

About : I guess a result similar to 2013 is likely, probably a bit lower (15th-8th place). It's definitely no contender and the weakest entry since 2014.

 

[AndroZeus]

These numbers for ... You know, we all don't know the outcome by now and we need to wait but I'm so amazed by the fact that is once again so overhyped. Tbh I'm predicting something like 30-80 jury points and 0-40 televoting points. Don't get me wrong, I guess it's a quality song but why should the average viewer vote for this? Juries also tend to vote for safe choices, this definitely isn't one. It's giving me huge 2022 vibes, talking about the possible result.

I guess the fandom appreciates consistently stunning live performances? Blanca Paloma is the best vocalist this year, there's really no doubt there. Whether that will translate into jury votes is unknown. Televoters, of course, don't give a shit about whether someone actually sings well.

 

[ayzelto]

These numbers for ... You know, we all don't know the outcome by now and we need to wait but I'm so amazed by the fact that is once again so overhyped. Tbh I'm predicting something like 30-80 jury points and 0-40 televoting points. Don't get me wrong, I guess it's a quality song but why should the average viewer vote for this? Juries also tend to vote for safe choices, this definitely isn't one. It's giving me huge 2022 vibes, talking about the possible result.

I do very much agree with your and numbers though.

About : I guess a result similar to 2013 is likely, probably a bit lower (15th-8th place). It's definitely no contender and the weakest entry since 2014.

What's the average viewer? The same who voted for Jamala, Salvador Sobral, Go_A, Konstrankta, Rona Nishliu...? All of them were top 5 in the televote. I think we should lay our personal taste aside (you made it quite clear you don't like neither France nor Spain) and accept people have different points of view.

 

[Zeus]

Don't get me wrong, I guess it's a quality song but why should the average viewer vote for this?

Why did they for Maneskin, Go_A, Pravi and Konstrakta?

There is a pattern in recent times and that is that televoters are more likely to vote for authentic, original songs in the native language. A good (vocal) performance and/or a very interesting concept or staging help as well. I think Eaea ticks these boxes. And you can already see that there are quite some people in the bubble who are really going for this entry.

You seem to disagree, but I think that Eaea and the (for sure pretty amazing) performance she will give at the live stage will amaze the average/casual viewer even more than people inside the ESC-bubble.

So yes, I do think this can do quite well with the televotes. I'm actually more sure with that than with the juries.

 

[lacrymea]

These numbers for ... Tbh I'm predicting something like 30-80 jury points and 0-40 televoting points.

Not gonna happen. I actually laughed about these numbers you predict.

 

[aef]

What's the average viewer? The same who voted for Jamala, Salvador Sobral, Go_A, Konstrankta, Rona Nishliu...? All of them were top 5 in the televote. I think we should lay our personal taste aside (you made it quite clear you don't like neither France nor Spain) and accept people have different points of view.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not about personal taste and I don’t want to offend anyone. I don’t really get the comparison to these songs, it’s really a bunch of very different songs…

My point is that the style of the song might not be accessible enough. I do believe that many people will find this too „screamy“ and too annoying. And it’s also very monotone, there is no melody. Personally I can’t really listen to the song because it’s just very unpleasant to listen to.

The most logical comparison might be 2012 but this song hat a melody and highs and lows and it was normal vocals combined with high pitched vocals. That’s the big difference in my opinion.

Maybe she will get top 15 or top 10 but let’s see. It’s just my opinion don’t feel so offended…

 

[midnightsun]

We had this thread before and I couldn’t find one for 2023. Let‘s talk about who is in for the victory this year.

Personally I find it hard to think about not winning by a landslide. I don’t want it to happen but the juries will probably give 300+ points to and televoters 200+. Please give me your arguments against a victory if you have some. („People won’t vote for something that is not new“ is not an argument in my opinion)

will have high televote support but not so much jury support. could probably do only mediocre with televoters and even worse with juries, I’m afraid (still enough for top 10 though). will probably have a very good televoting result but a low jury result.

And talking about and I really, really don’t see them inside the top 10. I think people that see them as contenders are crazy. It’s more likely that they are bottom 5 than top 5 tbh.

I agree with everything, other than France being bottom 5, I rather see them top 10, just not top 5 as some here claim.

 

[ayzelto]

Maybe she will get top 15 or top 10 but let’s see. It’s just my opinion don’t feel so offended…

I don't feel offended. This is your personal opinion and as I said, all points of view must be accepted. It's just that you shared your disagreement about Spain being a contender many times in this thread, so I thought it was appropiate to give you my personal point of view, as you do repeatedly

 

[AndroZeus]

The wrongest thing is to be confident about predicting the future based on your personal opinion.

 

[aef]

The wrongest thing is to be confident about predicting the future based on your personal opinion.

If you talk about me, once again it’s not about personal taste.

I’m fine with being proven wrong when it comes to and - I have nothing against these countries

 

[AndroZeus]

If you talk about me, once again it’s not about personal taste.

I’m fine with being proven wrong when it comes to and - I have nothing against these countries

I was talking about anyone who claims to know anything about what the result's going to be.

 

[aef]

I was talking about anyone who claims to know anything about what the result's going to be.

The aim when creating this thread was just to share some predictions and opinions… don’t take it too serious.

 

[AndroZeus]

The aim when creating this thread was just to share some predictions and opinions… don’t take it too serious.

I'm just sharing my prediction/opinion that y'all have no idea what you're talking about. Don't take it too serious.

 

[KazNew]

It's hard to envision any scenario which doesn't end with taking the crown home in a landslide.

Their only real competitor might be . Whilst Kaarija will likely win the televote, I can see Finland around 5-10th in the jury. This won't be enough to beat Loreen, who will inevitably win the jury vote and come second in the televote.

seems like a solid third place. I'm guessing around 4-6th with the jury (let's be real, it's a modern and very jury-friendly song), plus 3rd with the televote. People need to remember the sheer number of Ukrainian citizens now living in other places across Europe.

and all seem like jury top 10s, but with mid-to-low televote scores. I can see all three of these countries placing around 5-10th overall.

Opposite is true for and - televote top 10s but mid-to-low with the juries.

My bets for some dark horses:
screams jury bait, and the clips which Andrew posts on Tiktok leave me confident that he'll be able to hit the vocals live. A possible jury top 5 IMO.
will be appreciated by the general public a lot more than the fandom. Definitely the 'dad vote' song for this year, and the composition is interesting enough for the juries to maybe give us some points too (plus Australia always does well with the jury). Could see us sneaking into the top 10 considering how open this year is outside of the top 2.

Overall my predictions would be:
Top 3 (in order):
4 - 10 (no order):
11 - 15 (no order): + (although I have doubts about their qualification)
16 - 20 (no order):
21 - 26 (no order): + whoever else qualifies

 

[Bmbriga]

I truly can’t believe this, and are mentioned by so many of you, I must be living in a parallel universe

I agree with you. I don't see them anywhere near winning.