The Draw
- Thread starter Brandt
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nofuxCZ
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Well, if they wanted to kill off any of our chances, then they succeeded. Going first in the second half and right after the possible winner means we are doomed.
Brandt
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10th is quite fine draw for a semi imo.
ZoboCamel
Well-known member
Well... I guessed the openers right, at least! Plus Netherlands in 6th, San Marino in 8th between strong entries and Bosnia and Herzegovina 17th for SF1; Poland 2nd, Belarus 5th, Ukraine 15th, Albania 18th in SF2. So 4/18 for SF1 and 5/19 for SF2. Neither here nor there, I suppose... I'm curious to see whether completely random guesses would've been just as good 
As for comments on the draw itself: Hungary and Croatia both seem to have decent slots in SF1. Despite 4th and 5th not generally being well-regarded positions, they're coming after three weaker entries and before another potentially weak one, which I think more than counteracts that part of the draw. In a tough semi, being surrounded by a glut of weaker entries should help those two songs. This is especially so considering that qualifiers tend to be spread equally throughout each semi - ie. 4-6 from the first half, 4-6 from the second half, and similar divides within each quarter, though slightly favouring the final quarter of each semi.
The Czech Republic haven't got the greatest position, considering they're between two powerful, highly-regarded upbeat favourites and halfway through the semi. It's not out of the question for them to qualify, but they'll need a good performance to be remembered in the middle of the upbeat favourite sandwich.
Azerbaijan seem to have benefited here, performing something catchy and upbeat after two slower entries and before one of the year's weakest entries. This should stick in people's minds somewhat, and I don't think we'll be seeing Azerbaijan's qualification streak breaking quite yet.
While Bosnia and Herzegovina should benefit from being second-last to perform, they're also between two fairly powerful, more contemporary entries. It's difficult to say whether people will enjoy their unusual song as a breath of fresh air or whether it will fail to stand out in between them. That said, while I wouldn't usually expect the three last entries from the semi to qualify, they might just manage it given the late slots and good contrast. It could go either way, and will likely depend on staging a lot.
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For SF2, I'm as confused as [MENTION=13042]Kaz[/MENTION] is when I see those three rather average ballads in a row early in the semi. With so many entries in this semi being close together in quality - 'kinda-below-average to kinda-above-average' - it's more difficult to predict who will come out ahead, but one way or another I'd say it's the straw that broke the camel's back for Switzerland unless they can pull out some amazing staging. This odd ballad block may benefit Belarus, however, who should stick in people's minds if they manage to break up the monotony well enough.
Macedonia seems to be in a relatively decent position: surrounded on both sides by middle-of-the-road dance pop, it's the only restrained, subtle entry to be found for a while. This might help to endear it to fans of its genre if they compare it to what's on the other sides and find Macedonia a bastion of relative quality in the middle.
Slovenia seems doomed. Following a powerful Western-style entry with a relatively weak one of their own will likely harm them, and whether people like Romania's song or not, its levels of ham should make people forget about Slovenia rather quickly.
Denmark may also be in a bit of a predicament. They're performing their mainstream, hook-based pop song after a stronger mainstream, hook-based pop song, and coming before one of the semi's most memorable songs in Ukraine. This doesn't look too good for them.
Georgia may be well-positioned to have a surprise qualification here. They likely won't seem as weird due to following Ukraine's wailing and Norway's two-song combination, and audiences who prefer this kind of 'real' music and 80s sound would have sat through a long streak of entries that don't really interest them before coming to this. It's got a chance, at least.
Similarly, Albania's not as badly off as they could have been. They're still an outside shot, having a rather weak and forgettable pop entry, but after three less mainstream entries, fans of more regular pop music may welcome Albania's song as a return to normality, and performing second-last is pretty decent considering the last-to-perform isn't going to amaze too many people.
Finally, Belgium's clearly got a good slot here - they're closing off the semi with something fun, and are far separated from any other upbeat entry or favourite. This could well be what they need to push them to the finals.
Given all of the above, my qualification predictions are probably:
SF1:
Hungary
Croatia
Armenia
Russia
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Iceland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Malta
I'm relatively confident about nine of the qualifiers from SF1, but spent a while considering before deciding on Bosnia and Herzegovina for the last slot. However, I think it could just as easily go to Estonia, or perhaps one of the first two entries from the semi at an outside chance (Finland since its fun vibe should leave a strong impression and there's nothing nearby quite like it, and Greece depending on the strength of their diaspora vote, especially now that we've effectively returned to the old vote combination system).
SF2:
Latvia
Israel
Serbia
Macedonia
Lithuania
Australia
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Norway
Georgia
This is going to be a lot closer than SF1, I think - I'm only confident with half of these (Latvia, Serbia, Australia, Bulgaria, Ukraine), compared to nine from the first semi. Any of the other five could easily lose their spots to Poland, Belarus or Belgium, with Romania and Ireland possible depending on staging and maybe even Albania if they can be a breath of fresh, mainstream air after the alternative entry block. Really an open semi.
As for comments on the draw itself: Hungary and Croatia both seem to have decent slots in SF1. Despite 4th and 5th not generally being well-regarded positions, they're coming after three weaker entries and before another potentially weak one, which I think more than counteracts that part of the draw. In a tough semi, being surrounded by a glut of weaker entries should help those two songs. This is especially so considering that qualifiers tend to be spread equally throughout each semi - ie. 4-6 from the first half, 4-6 from the second half, and similar divides within each quarter, though slightly favouring the final quarter of each semi.
The Czech Republic haven't got the greatest position, considering they're between two powerful, highly-regarded upbeat favourites and halfway through the semi. It's not out of the question for them to qualify, but they'll need a good performance to be remembered in the middle of the upbeat favourite sandwich.
Azerbaijan seem to have benefited here, performing something catchy and upbeat after two slower entries and before one of the year's weakest entries. This should stick in people's minds somewhat, and I don't think we'll be seeing Azerbaijan's qualification streak breaking quite yet.
While Bosnia and Herzegovina should benefit from being second-last to perform, they're also between two fairly powerful, more contemporary entries. It's difficult to say whether people will enjoy their unusual song as a breath of fresh air or whether it will fail to stand out in between them. That said, while I wouldn't usually expect the three last entries from the semi to qualify, they might just manage it given the late slots and good contrast. It could go either way, and will likely depend on staging a lot.
---
For SF2, I'm as confused as [MENTION=13042]Kaz[/MENTION] is when I see those three rather average ballads in a row early in the semi. With so many entries in this semi being close together in quality - 'kinda-below-average to kinda-above-average' - it's more difficult to predict who will come out ahead, but one way or another I'd say it's the straw that broke the camel's back for Switzerland unless they can pull out some amazing staging. This odd ballad block may benefit Belarus, however, who should stick in people's minds if they manage to break up the monotony well enough.
Macedonia seems to be in a relatively decent position: surrounded on both sides by middle-of-the-road dance pop, it's the only restrained, subtle entry to be found for a while. This might help to endear it to fans of its genre if they compare it to what's on the other sides and find Macedonia a bastion of relative quality in the middle.
Slovenia seems doomed. Following a powerful Western-style entry with a relatively weak one of their own will likely harm them, and whether people like Romania's song or not, its levels of ham should make people forget about Slovenia rather quickly.
Denmark may also be in a bit of a predicament. They're performing their mainstream, hook-based pop song after a stronger mainstream, hook-based pop song, and coming before one of the semi's most memorable songs in Ukraine. This doesn't look too good for them.
Georgia may be well-positioned to have a surprise qualification here. They likely won't seem as weird due to following Ukraine's wailing and Norway's two-song combination, and audiences who prefer this kind of 'real' music and 80s sound would have sat through a long streak of entries that don't really interest them before coming to this. It's got a chance, at least.
Similarly, Albania's not as badly off as they could have been. They're still an outside shot, having a rather weak and forgettable pop entry, but after three less mainstream entries, fans of more regular pop music may welcome Albania's song as a return to normality, and performing second-last is pretty decent considering the last-to-perform isn't going to amaze too many people.
Finally, Belgium's clearly got a good slot here - they're closing off the semi with something fun, and are far separated from any other upbeat entry or favourite. This could well be what they need to push them to the finals.
Given all of the above, my qualification predictions are probably:
SF1:
Hungary
Croatia
Armenia
Russia
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Iceland
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Malta
I'm relatively confident about nine of the qualifiers from SF1, but spent a while considering before deciding on Bosnia and Herzegovina for the last slot. However, I think it could just as easily go to Estonia, or perhaps one of the first two entries from the semi at an outside chance (Finland since its fun vibe should leave a strong impression and there's nothing nearby quite like it, and Greece depending on the strength of their diaspora vote, especially now that we've effectively returned to the old vote combination system).
SF2:
Latvia
Israel
Serbia
Macedonia
Lithuania
Australia
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Norway
Georgia
This is going to be a lot closer than SF1, I think - I'm only confident with half of these (Latvia, Serbia, Australia, Bulgaria, Ukraine), compared to nine from the first semi. Any of the other five could easily lose their spots to Poland, Belarus or Belgium, with Romania and Ireland possible depending on staging and maybe even Albania if they can be a breath of fresh, mainstream air after the alternative entry block. Really an open semi.
nofuxCZ
Well-known member
Not if you're performing right after the biggest favourite of the year.
ag89
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Well, the draw is generally not important, only fans make so much drama about it.
Although I agree that draw can be difficult for some slow tempo songs if they perform at the begin. Maybe Czech Republic this year since it will open the second part.
People will vote for the songs they like and they will easily remember those.
But, SVT is also trying to make show slightly more exciting and it is obvious they have given some nice spots to big fish like Russia or Australia for example.
The same thing happened last year, but I don't think that's really important because those will qualify anyway.
Although I agree that draw can be difficult for some slow tempo songs if they perform at the begin. Maybe Czech Republic this year since it will open the second part.
People will vote for the songs they like and they will easily remember those.
But, SVT is also trying to make show slightly more exciting and it is obvious they have given some nice spots to big fish like Russia or Australia for example.
The same thing happened last year, but I don't think that's really important because those will qualify anyway.
ZoboCamel
Well-known member
Despite the worries here, the betting market still seems relatively confident about Gabriela's chances at the moment. While it did just become a little harder for here, there is still an unmatched bet asking for qualification odds of 1.49, meaning that effectively nobody is willing to bet that her qualification chances are less than 67%.
ParadiseES
Well-known member
Wow, the draw corrupted running order looks made to benefit the worst entries (Bosnia and Malta closing Semi 1; Georgia, Albania and Belgium in Semi 2). And Russia and Australia getting the latest possible draw, okaaay 
BTW Poor Czech Republic Gabriela will qualify anyway, because she HAS TO qualify, but Bjorkmann doesn't seem to want the same.
Conclusión: let's get rid of corruption and get back to the draw!!! + Bjorkmann and Jan Ola, keep your asses away from OUR contest!!!
BTW Poor Czech Republic
Gabriela will qualify anyway, because she HAS TO qualify, but Bjorkmann doesn't seem to want the same.Conclusión: let's get rid of corruption and get back to the draw!!! + Bjorkmann and Jan Ola, keep your asses away from OUR contest!!!
ParadiseES
Well-known member
I think with this draw Estonia, Czech Republic and Iceland are out while Finland, Greece and Bosnia and Herzegovina take their places.
As for semi 2... I think Latvia is on thin ice, on the other hand Belgium assured their place in final with Georgia and Macedonia being possible shock qualifiers.
As for semi 2... I think Latvia is on thin ice, on the other hand Belgium assured their place in final with Georgia and Macedonia being possible shock qualifiers.
aef
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- April 24, 2015
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Some spots were already clear before the official announcement...
gets the 10
gets the 9
gets the 11
gets the 11
and so on...
+They obviously wanted to harm :evil:
But of course only to make the show more exciting... xliar Thank you for that SVT! xslap
gets the 10 gets the 9 gets the 11 gets the 11 and so on...
+They obviously wanted to harm
:evil:But of course only to make the show more exciting... xliar Thank you for that SVT! xslap
Schlagerman1
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- October 1, 2009
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Listening through some recaps (will have a full listen when I can), I think it isn't looking that bad. I think it is a good way of sorting out the songs, different genres and emotions come after each other as good as possible. Some losers and winners are there, but that is doomed to happen anyway whatever running order I suppose.
top 3 Losers:
3rd: - Estonia isn't having the best of times in the order. It feels like it gets completly lost, after Cyprus rock, Austria is at least a little different, then comes Estonia and then BAM! it is suddenly a "Miracle" with Azerbaijan.
2nd: - Well coming after Armenias "bomb-alarm", which can scare away some people for a couple of minutes and later Russias winner-potential is a nightmare for Serhat. Would have been unlikely to qualify anyway, but still this doesn't do it better for me.
1st: - After coming in a line of slightly weaker (this is what I think casual viewers will think) entries, after the double-wammy by Lithuania and Australia, then Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark will have a hard battle of maximum two places I think. Though, I think that Romania and Bulgaria are the stronger ones, then I have a hard time seeing Denmark qualfying. Especially thinking about Jamala and Ukraine being afterwards, who will kick Denmark out in the water with her performance probably, which Ukraine often does. So no, Denmark is the big loser I suppose.
Will think about winners later.
Does anyone know yet when the breaks will come in the semis? I suppose it might be after 7 and 15, but need confimation about it.
top 3 Losers:
3rd:
- Estonia isn't having the best of times in the order. It feels like it gets completly lost, after Cyprus rock, Austria is at least a little different, then comes Estonia and then BAM! it is suddenly a "Miracle" with Azerbaijan. 2nd:
- Well coming after Armenias "bomb-alarm", which can scare away some people for a couple of minutes and later Russias winner-potential is a nightmare for Serhat. Would have been unlikely to qualify anyway, but still this doesn't do it better for me. 1st:
- After coming in a line of slightly weaker (this is what I think casual viewers will think) entries, after the double-wammy by Lithuania and Australia, then Slovenia, Romania, Bulgaria and Denmark will have a hard battle of maximum two places I think. Though, I think that Romania and Bulgaria are the stronger ones, then I have a hard time seeing Denmark qualfying. Especially thinking about Jamala and Ukraine being afterwards, who will kick Denmark out in the water with her performance probably, which Ukraine often does. So no, Denmark is the big loser I suppose. Will think about winners later.
Does anyone know yet when the breaks will come in the semis? I suppose it might be after 7 and 15, but need confimation about it.
aef
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JamieBrown
Well-known member
Why is everyone putting Russia on 9?
Would be a great opener for Semi 1, wouldn't it? They could also give the death spot #2 to Russia because we all know they will qualify anyway
Okay, now we know the draw. Thanks
ZoboCamel
Well-known member
I feel like Iceland's entry is powerful enough to qualify from any slot, and it hasn't drawn a super-bad one anyway; they should be safe. Estonia and Czech Republic are borderline, but I wouldn't say they're out just yet, with the Czech entry in particular seeming more likely in than out despite a bad draw if we assume juries will reward the vocals (she's reportedly great live). Agreed that Finland, Greece and B&H are all at least close to making it, though.
Very surprised to see that you think Latvia is on thin ice. I'm pretty sure they're a nailed-down qualifier wherever they are in the draw; while the running order can certainly have an effect, I highly doubt that it's able to turn one of the favourites into something that fails to qualify from a weak semi. We already know Justs is great live; any NQ from him would likely be the biggest surprise from the semis since they were introduced. I can't see it happening.
Belgium's been helped here, true, but they're far from an assured qualifier. The pimp slot does give entries a better chance, but it's not an automatic ticket to the final, so with a weak song they'll still need good staging and live vocals to scrape through on the night. Georgia and Macedonia are both poised to fight for a slot though, I agree.