The Draw

[Terence]

This is just getting beyond ridiculous.

Surely someone must come up with the idea of drawing songs according to their genre?
Simple as that. If this idiot from Malta can come up with this solution, then anybody can!

 

[sapsan]

Don't worry. It's alright. Maybe they still haven't sold some good positions. So it was necessary to continue bidding.

 

[sigi]

Don't worry. It's alright. Maybe they still haven't sold some good positions. So it was necessary to continue bidding.

Panama-Papers

 

[toinou03]

As Mr Björkman doesn't want to expose its one, let's try one (I tried the same methodology as 2013...)

SF1

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

SF2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

But really, it's hard to make a draw !

 

[tuorem]

They literally have one night to decide the running order for the final, as the dress rehearsals start the afternoon after. And so far they've always been able to make it without any problem.

There's a first time for everything Seriously, I even wonder if some countries have already bought their starting positions in the past. It wouldn't be improbable afterall.

 

[GermanBango]

Jeeey conspiracy-time! Time to dig out the good old tinfoil hats

 

[Chorizo]

There's a first time for everything Seriously, I even wonder if some countries have already bought their starting positions in the past. It wouldn't be improbable afterall.

Maybe France should pay a little more this year to prevent another #2 disaster.

 

[tsegaye]

Okey, I'll give the draw a go because I'm so bored.

1.
2. ::ml
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.

Semi 2:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.

 

[tuorem]

Okey, I'll give the draw a go because I'm so bored.

Semi 1:

2. ::ml
16.

Semi 2:
6.

ok Maybe that's why the draw has been delayed.

 

[Terence]

Ira Losco singing for Morocco?!

 

[zs1001]

Ira Losco singing for Morocco?!

Mali and Moldova are next to each other geographically. Easy to confuse them....

 

[DanielLuis]

ok Maybe that's why the draw has been delayed.

You win 'best post of the day' for this one

 

[Nikkita]

Björkman is trying to find the perfect draw to make us hate the contest more guys

 

[ZoboCamel]

Okay, so I've finally given a crack at guessing the draw. My main considerations were that they'll want to keep similar songs apart from each other, open and close both semis on something relatively decent, separate the favourites so as not to be left with gluts of weaker songs, and support struggling or returning countries for qualification where possible to keep them coming back to the contest. Based on that, I've guessed at:

SEMI 1:

1. Finland - Seems like the usual opener: catchy and memorable to draw viewers in.

2. Moldova - A weak song sandwiched in an early slot to keep the hype going for later. Likely NQ regardless of where it is, so used to get a weak slot out of the way.

3. Armenia - The first big hitter of the night, coming relatively early to keep people interested and watching.

4. Greece - Putting it here allows for a bit of space between the non-English entries, and splits up the big hitters a little.

5. Hungary - A hard-hitting, upbeat song between two more old-fashioned entries to break up the monotony. More conventional, after two unusual songs.

6. The Netherlands - As a slow, understated number, this should stand out between the shouting and power of Hungary and Russia.

7. Russia - Not next to any other favourite, and if there's complex staging & a break after every six songs, this allows extra time for setup.

8. San Marino - Put between two strong entries to try and make people forget it, as they won't be able to push a qualification here whatever they do.

9. Croatia - Given the latest possible slot to push a qualification, make them happy and have them return for next year.

-----

10. Montenegro - Something weak after the favourites, and as early as possible given its second-half draw, to ensure a non-qualification.

11. Azerbaijan - A more modern, conventional, upbeat choice for variety after a two weaker songs and a ballad. Perhaps an intended NQ.

12. Iceland - Keeping the hype going with another strong upbeat song, potentially placed strategically to overshadow Azerbaijan.

13. Austria - Placed to miss a qualification after a couple years of weak choices and space it out from the other non-English songs in the semi.

14. Cyprus - Far enough away from Montenegro that you don't get a repeat of the same genre, but close enough for comparisons and discussion.

15. Estonia - Something retro and classy to provide a bit of a respite after a largely upbeat block of songs.

16. Malta - Put here to impress with modern composition and likely-strong staging, which should stand out from the songs around it.

17. Bosnia and Herzegovina - Given a late slot in an attempt to help them qualify from a tough semi, encouraging them to return next year.

18. Czech Republic - Largely the same as Bosnia and Herzegovina, but given the pimp slot for extra priority due to their weaker record.



SEMI 2:

1. Latvia - A strong opening to the show to get people interested; weak-ish running slot shouldn't stop it from being a guaranteed qualifier.

2. Poland - An early, unfavourable spot to compensate for giving them the pimp slot with another unpopular ballad last year.

3. Ireland - Upbeat and simple after melancholy songs, and away from the similar Lithuanian entry. Slightly distanced from strong entries to make up for recent NQs.

4. Switzerland - A filler song in a filler slot. May allow discussions on comparisons with the similar, but more accessible, Australian entry two slots later.

5. Belarus - A male-performed rock song between two female-performed ballads. Keeps viewer attention while saving 'stronger' songs for later.

6. Australia - Likely being pushed for another qualification, which should be helped by comparisons due to coming after three songs with less chances at high finishes.

7. Israel - While still a ballad, this should contrast enough from Australia's in style, audience etc. Lots of ballads in this half, so some need to be clumped anyway.

8. Lithuania - A good place for an upbeat song after a group of ballads, plus 7th slot should be should be far enough from Ireland here to prevent repetition.

9. Macedonia - A vague attempt to separate non-English songs, plus it's a decent spot to try and encourage qualification after a few years of failure.

10. Serbia - Ending the half with some energetic cheese after Macedonia's more restrained entry; has a particular focus on its lyrics, to contrast with entries before it.

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11. Belgium - A break away from Eastern Europe after a few songs in a row from the region, plus breaking up the ballads some more with an upbeat song.

12. Romania - Something more unusual after a spate of relatively mainstream songs; no need to push Romanian qualification for the year, so given a weaker spot.

13. Denmark - None of the last few entries have been traditional pop, so this seems as good a spot as any to make it stand out.

14. Georgia - Two bands back-to-back, contrasting with very different styles.

15. Ukraine - There hasn't been a hard-hitting favourite in a while, so a controversial one goes here to keep people interested and talking.

16. Slovenia - More conventional to let people calm down after Ukraine; not particularly well-liked, so supports a Ukrainian qualification by way of comparison.

17. Norway - There hasn't been much of a modern sound in the last few songs, so this is put here to break things up.

18. Albania - A nothing song in a filler slot. Lumped between two stronger entries so people don't remember their disappointment too much.

19. Bulgaria - Ending the night with an upbeat, fun, fan favourite to send off viewers on a high note and push qualification for a returning country.



Now watch me be wrong on every guess!

 

[hdplus]

Armenia as No.1 would be pretty epic, but I guess (like almost everyone) it will be Finland at the start. I would put San Marino on position 9, 17 or 18.
In semi-final 2 I would maybe put Australia or Lithuania at the beginning. And I think Ukraine and Norway would be great on 10 or 19.

 

[tuorem]

Now watch me be wrong on every guess!

Thank you for giving us a detailed analysis of your draw. I enjoyed reading your post and it would totally make sense to me (except maybe Latvia, since they performed first in 2013 already, and we still don't know if countries can be given the same starting positions a couple of years later). I would rather see Ireland open the show: as you said, it's upbeat, it's not a contender, and thus it could be an "ideal" appetizer compared with the logic of the past draws of semi 2

Unfortunately, I get the feeling the people who are actually responsible for the draw have their own logic and even though I hope I'll be proven wrong tomorrow, I feel like Czech Republic and Bulgaria won't have the honour to close the semis. What I'm trying to say is that your draw is overall too perfect and fair Something must go wrong at some point, so I unwillingly expect a slightly different order tomorrow :?

 

[Brandt]

Only almost half a day is left to know that draw is postponed to sometime in May.

 

[John1]

If isn't placed on a good spot, I'll bomb Stockholm so hard.

 

[GermanBango]

I'd say something like:

Semi 1
1. (Male - mid/uptempo - Eurodance/Pop)
2. (Female - slow/midtempo - Modern Ethnopop)
3. (Male - mid/uptempo - Disco/Schlagerish)
4. (Female - midtempo - Ethnopop)
5. (Male - slow/midtempo - Country)
6. (Group - midtempo - Folk)
7. (Female - uptempo - Eurodance)
8. (Male - midtempo - Pop)
9. (Female - mid/uptempo - Disco)

10. (Male - slow/midtempo - Pop)
11. (Female - mid/uptempo - Pop/Schlager)
12. (Group - midtempo - Ethnopop/Rap)
13. (Female - mid/uptempo - Pop/Dance)
14. (Group - midtempo - Rock)
15. (Female - slowtempo - Pop-Ballad)
16. (Group - mid/uptempo - Pop/Rock)
17. (Female - midtempo - Schlager)
18. (Female - mid/uptempo - Pop/Dance)


Semi 2
1. (Male - mid/uptempo - Pop/Dance)
2. (Female - midtempo - Pop/Rockish)
3. (Male - slow/midtempo - Pop-Ballad)
4. (Female - midtempo - Pop)
5. (Male - slow - Pop-Ballad)
6. (Female - midtempo - Rock)
7. (Male - midtempo - Electropop)
8. (Male - midtempo - Pop)
9. (Female - midtempo - Pop)
10. (Male - midtempo - Pop)

11. (Female - mid/uptempo - Electropop)
12. (Female - slow/midtempo - Pop)
13. (Group - midtempo - Rock/Funk)
14. (Female - midtempo - Pop/ R&B)
15. (Group - midtempo - Pop/Schlager)
16. (Female - midtempo - Pop/Folk)
17. (Female - midtempo - Country/Pop)
18. (Male - midtempo - Rock/Goth)
19. (Female - midtempo - Pop)

The End.

 

[Kaz]

Running order has been announced!

SEMI 1

01 - Finland
02 - Greece
03 - Moldova
04 - Hungary
05 - Croatia
06 - Netherlands
07 - Armenia
08 - San Marino
09 - Russia
10 - Czech Republic
11 - Cyprus
12 - Austria
13 - Estonia
14 - Azerbaijan
15 - Montenegro
16 - Iceland
17 - Bosnia & Herzegovina
18 - Malta

SEMI 2

01 - Latvia
02 - Poland
03 - Switzerland
04 - Israel
05 - Belarus
06 - Serbia
07 - Ireland
08 - Macedonia
09 - Lithuania
10 - Australia
11 - Slovenia
12 - Romania
13 - Bulgaria
14 - Denmark
15 - Ukraine
16 - Norway
17 - Georgia
18 - Albania
19 - Belgium

What I find strangest is that in Semi 2, songs number 2, 3 and 4 are all slow-mid tempo.