Portugal PORTUGAL 2025 - Napa - Deslocado

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[lacrymea]

For me it has to be Josh!
What a beautiful piece of music. It sends shivers down my spine and keeps me fully engaged throughout.

I understand that we want (and probably need) to send something totally left field for a change. But I'd do so if said left field was better than our usual route. I'm afraid Henka isn't. I like the genre, the screaming bits are good but the overall package feels somewhat disjointed (and those lyrics... i don't know).

 

[lacrymea]

(double post, sorry)

 

[goncalovieira]

For me it has to be Josh!
What a beautiful piece of music. It sends shivers down my spine and keeps me fully engaged throughout.

I understand that we want (and probably need) to send something totally left field for a change. But I'd do so if said left field was better than our usual route. I'm afraid Henka isn't. I like the genre, the screaming bits are good but the overall package feels somewhat disjointed (and those lyrics... i don't know).

He is taking the jury vote. His song fits all the criteria that they usually apply.
However, the main problem is the televote. There are Fernando Daniel with his teenager fans, NAPA with support of Madeira island and Henka (even though she needs to take votes from non-bubble voters and that is hard). Josh has to bring the best staging possible and give everything right on the semifinal.

 

[Decayingbooks]

He is taking the jury vote. His song fits all the criteria that they usually apply.
However, the main problem is the televote. There are Fernando Daniel with his teenager fans, NAPA with support of Madeira island and Henka (even though she needs to take votes from non-bubble voters and that is hard). Josh has to bring the best staging possible and give everything right on the semifinal.

From what I understand Napa seems to be very big on the Madeira archipelago and their song is the one with the most listens of the lineup, a little more than 21k, for comparison Josh has 15k, Henka 13k and Fernando Daniel 12k.
I do believe that Josh is the one that will gather the most consensus from the judges and televote, but I don't think that it will be that hard for Henka to get votes from the non-bubble, there's a big incognito regarding the staging, but people voted for Dapuksportif in 2023, they even got the 8 points, third place, from the televote in the final, and I know, they where rock and Henka is nu metal(I think), but there are people outside of the bubble that are into this kind of music and hopefully they will support her.

 

[AliceEsc]

Great lineup! Much better than last year. I like almost all songs to an extent.

My absolute favourite is Xico Gaiato - Ai Senhor!

Other standouts:
Peculiar - Adamastor
A Cantadeira - Responso à Mulher

From the 3 frontrunners, I find Fernando Daniel - Medo acceptable. I'm not into JOSH, but he may win me over with the live performance. Basically, just avoid HENKA. I'd love to root for Portugal this year!

 

[JSSArcos]

From what I understand Napa seems to be very big on the Madeira archipelago and their song is the one with the most listens of the lineup, a little more than 21k, for comparison Josh has 15k, Henka 13k and Fernando Daniel 12k.
I do believe that Josh is the one that will gather the most consensus from the judges and televote, but I don't think that it will be that hard for Henka to get votes from the non-bubble, there's a big incognito regarding the staging, but people voted for Dapuksportif in 2023, they even got the 8 points, third place, from the televote in the final, and I know, they where rock and Henka is nu metal(I think), but there are people outside of the bubble that are into this kind of music and hopefully they will support her.

At the time, there was talk of a strong union around Peniche and the surrounding areas to support the song. Still, 9.17% is something, considering Mimicat won with 19.33%.

Since we don’t know the exact number of votes, it’s hard to calculate or draw significant conclusions. But the truth is that the televote has been very balanced since RTP started showing the percentages. For example, João Borsch won with only 17% (against Iolanda’s 16.29%).

I’ve seen a metal group on Facebook discussing Henka, but many comments also mentioned that "it wasn’t worth the effort to call."

More than in other countries (although the Portuguese fans' favorites almost always win), things here tend to be very close.

I can easily see the jury supporting songs like Josh or Diana, while the televote is likely to favor Henka and Fernando Daniel, who will probably secure the 12 points.

How the jury will evaluate Henka song is a big question mark (but I wouldn’t say it will get significant support).

If Josh manages to capture a good percentage of the Portuguese fans' votes (who seem to be divided between him and Henka), he could certainly also attract a share of the general viewers’ votes—unless his performance is overly bold, which his song doesn’t require anyway. In this case, I think he could be the winner. Personally, at the moment, I think he’s the favorite, potentially scoring 12 + 8 points.
Napa could complicate things if he manages to secure a high percentage of the televote (which is highly likely).

 

[goncalovieira]

Napa are well known in Madeira, but their music style is still pretty "caviar"

 

[goncalovieira]

His taste is just... https://youtu.be/7K94r7Vr05Q?si=YSAUVWPNoJu-8Pld

 

[goncalovieira]

I can not deal with the negative wave of our national fans... jesus. Portugal has the best NF, Switzerland and Spain voting in a short semi, but they are already destroying our chances.

 

[JSSArcos]

I can not deal with the negative wave of our national fans... jesus. Portugal has the best NF, Switzerland and Spain voting in a short semi, but they are already destroying our chances.

To be honest, I would have preferred to stay in the 2nd semi (we had France and Luxembourg, it would have been the same or even better). But it’s the smallest semi, so that’s good.

It’s still too early to make predictions; I think it depends more on the song/staging we bring than anything else. So yes, I agree, Portuguese fans are some of the most pessimistic out there (back in 2017, they thought Salvador wouldn’t even qualify...).

 

[goncalovieira]

To be honest, I would have preferred to stay in the 2nd semi (we had France and Luxembourg, it would have been the same or even better). But it’s the smallest semi, so that’s good.

It’s still too early to make predictions; I think it depends more on the song/staging we bring than anything else. So yes, I agree, Portuguese fans are some of the most pessimistic out there (back in 2017, they thought Salvador wouldn’t even qualify...).

Semifinal 2 will be stronger in the end... just a feeling

 

[Decayingbooks]

I wouldn't count on Spain, sadly Spain and Portugal rarely support each other in Eurovision, but you forgot to mention Belgium and Netherlands that do have a not-that small Portuguese diaspora, so we would have 3 countries that could support a song in portuguese. Also there would be a jury vote(San Marino) so if Portugal sends a jury bait as they usually do we could get some points from them.
On the other hand, Sweden, Iceland, Croatia and Norway will be voting and they have shown to be favorable to metal songs, so I can see Henka scoring high with them, Henka could also get some points from Poland, Ukraine, Slovenia, Estonia, Italy and Netherlands. I doubt that she will get much support from the Portuguese diaspora, but I think the eurofans could make up for it.

TLDR, if Portugal sends either Josh or Henka and their stagins are great I can see Portugal totally qualifying, maybe even make it up to the top 5 of the semifinal.

 

[crals]

I can not deal with the negative wave of our national fans... jesus. Portugal has the best NF, Switzerland and Spain voting in a short semi, but they are already destroying our chances.

It's the same thing every year, the Portuguese fandom is very toxic. And yet Portugal has qualified 4 times in a row despite all their negativity.

 

[goncalovieira]

Just give a check

https://www.instagram.com/stories/joshmodd/3555555895346767671?igsh=eTc0bGp1NmFjdXU1

 

[goncalovieira]

It is official.
Edu (Iolanda's staging director) is working with Josh.

 

[mercachita]

I can not deal with the negative wave of our national fans... jesus. Portugal has the best NF, Switzerland and Spain voting in a short semi, but they are already destroying our chances.

Where is that negativity coming from? Tugavision?

 

[goncalovieira]

Where is that negativity coming from? Tugavision?

And some other foruns.

 

[HanVic123]

HENKA - I Wanna Destroy U 8/10
Du Nothin - Sobre Nós 7.5/10
Capital da Bulgária - Lisboa 7.5/10
Fernando Daniel - Medo 7/10
A Cantadeira - Responso à Mulher 6.5/10
Inês Marques Lucas - Quantos Queres 6/10
Diana Vilarinho - Cotovia 6/10
bombazine - Apago Tudo 6/10
Peculiar - Adamastor 6/10
Bluay - Ninguém 5.5/10
Jéssica Pina - Calafrio 5/10
NAPA - Deslocado 5/10
TOTA - á-tê-xis 4.5/10
Rita Sampaio - Voltas 4/10
Margarida Campelo - Eu sei que o amor 3.5/10
JOSH - Tristeza 3.5/10
Luca Argel feat. Pri Azevedo - Quem foi? 3/10
Marco Rodrigues - A Minha Casa 3/10
Emmy Curl - Rapsódia da Paz 2.5/10
Xico Gaiato - Ai Senhor! 1.5/10

 

[goncalovieira]

Not the fake profiles attacking again everyone except Josh. Every year they choose their king/queen (2021 - Neev, 2022 - Maro, 2023 - Mimicat, 2024 - Iolanda)

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[AlienSoul]

Tristeza is my favourite. Watching one of the YouTube reactions it was mentioned that Josh was on The Voice Portugal. I looked at a couple of videos and found the dick-slicer nails highly distracting. For such an emotional song we need to focus on his face.