France FRANCE 2018 - Madame Monsieur - Mercy

[ZoboCamel]

And I think Jamala was even longer in the odds before that - I seem to remember her drifting to around 80 at one stage. In other recent years, I think Salvador was around 20/1 for a while; Conchita spent most of the pre-season at odds of around 40 or 50; and The Common Linnets were at something insane like 800, which for an eventual second place is rather long.

I don't think that means the odds are particularly wrong about anything, though. 50/1 implies a 2% chance, and so if you have, say, 15 songs around those odds, then the odds are expecting a 30% chance that one of them will win. It's not saying that "these songs have no chance", but just that their chance is smaller – and sometimes, things end up hitting the smaller chance rather than the larger one. It's just how probabilities work. With that in mind, I'd say France's odds of 40 are about right based on what we know at the moment.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean I always agree with the odds - there are always going to be cases where you disagree with the market, and that's generally the whole point to betting! Some of the weirder things I've seen included Finland 2016 at odds of 6/1 to win after having chosen PKN, or Russia 2016 at 1.15 the day before the final, and then Australia at 1.15 just before the final... in fact, the 2016 odds in general

 

[cegs5]

Music video (the studio version not the 3 minutes one) :

I liked the video, maybe I would have prefered a more optimistic ending like they had in the lyrics video, with people smiling full of gratitude and hope, but overall is a touching and artistic video. Unlike the NF performance, you can understand what the song is about without knowing the lyrics, so I hope they keep it fully in French and do something similar in their staging so the message can be understood.

 

[nekoisneko]

The MV is just simply touching and amazing

 

[Vektor]

The main issue with this song in terms of its winning chances is obviously the political message. I know that ESC is a "liberal" contest, but having a song about migrants won't have the same effect as an LGBT performance like Austria 2014. I mean, we will have an election here in Hungary in one month and campaign is all about how everybody hates migrants here, even the more liberal Hungarian politians know that they can't talk positively about migrants, not in the slightest, because they would just lose votes with that. This song will get destroyed in the televote, the few liberal western countries can't save it.

 

[John1]

I hope that they revamped some parts of the song though. I can't wait for the official videoclip to be released.

 

[QwaarJet]

I hope that they revamped some parts of the song though. I can't wait for the official videoclip to be released.

I don't see how or why they would have revamped the song. I imagine it'll be the 3 minute version they performed in Destination Eurovision.

 

[John1]

I don't see how or why they would have revamped the song. I imagine it'll be the 3 minute version they performed in Destination Eurovision.

Aside from the English lines, I'd love to see a quite decent revamp like they did with Alma's entry last year.

 

[QwaarJet]

Aside from the English lines, I'd love to see a quite decent revamp like they did with Alma's entry last year.

The revamp last year absolutely killed Requiem for me last year. But I don't expect a revamp this year. The song is good to go for Lisbon.

 

[94ayd]

The main issue with this song in terms of its winning chances is obviously the political message. I know that ESC is a "liberal" contest, but having a song about migrants won't have the same effect as an LGBT performance like Austria 2014. I mean, we will have an election here in Hungary in one month and campaign is all about how everybody hates migrants here, even the more liberal Hungarian politians know that they can't talk positively about migrants, not in the slightest, because they would just lose votes with that. This song will get destroyed in the televote, the few liberal western countries can't save it.

Please, how did win in 2016?

 

[John1]

Where is the official videoclip for the ESC?

 

[mauve]

Where is the official videoclip for the ESC?

I thought the video tvfan posted a page before is the official one, or am I wrong?

 

[John1]

I thought the video tvfan posted a page before is the official one, or am I wrong?

3'49'' isn't what I call an "ESC version".

 

[mauve]

I know, it's mostly 3:02 or so, just wondered since it said "official Version". Let's wait then until the Shorter Version Comes out!

 

[John1]

I know, it's mostly 3:02 or so, just wondered since it said "official Version". Let's wait then until the Shorter Version Comes out!

I hope it'll be released anytime soon.

 

[Vektor]

Please, how did win in 2016?

Um, that was a completely different situation? I mean, almost nobody likes Putin (or what he did in Ukraine) outside Russia.

But yeah, I hope that I am wrong about this and Hungary is just a special case in Europe where the polical leaders went completely nuts with their anti-migrant propaganda, and trained the whole nation to hate migrants.

 

[John1]

DELETED

 

[John1]

Um, that was a completely different situation? I mean, almost nobody likes Putin (or what he did in Ukraine) outside Russia.

But yeah, I hope that I am wrong about this and Hungary is just a special case in Europe where the polical leaders went completely nuts with their anti-migrant propaganda, and trained the whole nation to hate migrants.

I perfectly know that this has nothing to do with what we're all supposed to discuss there, but people are free to have their own opinion, no matter what. As far as I know, the economic situation in Hungary and in other countries isn't wonderful. Did it lead people to stand up against migrants? I don't know, but there'll be always some people among the jury panel and the televote to protest against the inner message conveyed by a song. They're free to do so as I stated beforehand above, as well as people who endorse these waves of migrants coming across our European borders. Thus, it doesn't necessarily mean that will fail to achieve a great result all over again.

This occured in 2016 with , it still happens with in 2015 (peace-themed ballad, whereas Putin isn't coming across peaceful at all, but anyway...) and it may also go on with this year.

 

[JonnyWest]

The video is cringe but the song remains one of the best of the year BY FAR

 

[cegs5]

The main issue with this song in terms of its winning chances is obviously the political message. I know that ESC is a "liberal" contest, but having a song about migrants won't have the same effect as an LGBT performance like Austria 2014. I mean, we will have an election here in Hungary in one month and campaign is all about how everybody hates migrants here, even the more liberal Hungarian politians know that they can't talk positively about migrants, not in the slightest, because they would just lose votes with that. This song will get destroyed in the televote, the few liberal western countries can't save it.

I have to agree with you. I tend not to predict at Eurovision as it's always a bit tricky, but you are right that this topic is very delicate and can annoy many people who prefer not to see or talk about it in any platform, even if it's portraited in the news they will call it propaganda ... France is right now my personal favourite, BUT I can see it will face controversy and criticism merely because of the message. It's part of the game. Of course there are people who just don't like it music-wise, that's fine, I did not mean them.

 

[hijirio]

Raising my 7 to 10

This is such a grower.

France never lets down.