Well considering that in 1998, one of the Big 5 hosted the contest where a country in the far south-east of Europe won. There, Sweden won, only to have Denmark win there. The following year, in Denmark, Estonia won!
Now consider that in 2011, one of the Big 5 hosted the contest where a country in the far south-east of Europe won. There, Sweden won, only to have Denmark win there. The following year, in Denmark, Estonia must win!
1998 Host UK (now Big 5, though the Big 4 / Big 5 concept didn't exist then), winner Israel (far SE Europe)
1999 Host Israel (far SE Europe), winner Sweden
2000 Host Sweden, winner Denmark
2001 Host Denmark, winner Estonia
2011 Host Germany (Big 5), winner Azerbaijan (far SE Europe)
2012 Host Azerbaijan (far SE Europe), winner Sweden
2013 Host Sweden, winner Denmark
2014 Host Denmark, but that doesn't necessarily mean the winner will be Estonia!
Here are the winners since 1999:
1999 Sweden
2000 Denmark
2001 Estonia
2002 Latvia
2003 Turkey
2004 Ukraine
2005 Greece
2006 Finland
2007 Serbia
2008 Russia
2009 Norway
2010 Germany
2011 Azerbaijan
2012 Sweden
2013 Denmark
Just because Sweden and Demmark won in 2012 and 2013 respectively, both 13 years after their previous wins in 1999 and 2000 respectively, doesn't necessarily mean Estonia should win in 2014 (13 years after their first win in 2001). How long do you expect this 13 year cycle to keep repeating itself. Are you expecting it to continue as follows:
2014 Estonia
2015 Latvia
2016 Turkey
2017 Ukraine
2018 Greece
2019 Finland
2020 Serbia
2021 Russia
2022 Norway
2023 Germany
2024 Azerbaijan
2025 Sweden
2026 Denmark