Winner predictions?

[lizzy635]

There's alot of talk about 2014. But what about 2012 and 2013 then???? The major favorites did actually won. So no esc fans don't always have wrong.

I think some people want to think their faves have chances.

Sweden is a major favorite this year? Wait what?

 

[Pawhlen]

Sweden is a major favorite this year? Wait what?

According to the odds and the majority of the polls on Internet at the moment, is considered as a major favorite yes. But that does not gurantee that we actually will win

 

[cassio]

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 2 people think Denmark will win ESC this year... lets make a club Denmark, were all members are allowed to promote ASM and Denmark as much as they like......


DENMAAAAAAAAAARK go Denmark go Denmark







​PS: Who is the other one?

 

[GermanBango]

Sweden is a major favorite this year? Wait what?

Indeed they are. (for now)
Show all 40 songs to non-fans, you'll get a hint at what may do well and what won't. I tried that with 6 people of different gender, age and music preferences and they ALL said that will win this without a doubt. (personally I wouldn't go that far but I also believe it's hard to beat them this year)
Let's be honest, "Heroes" is a song that could easily be in most of the charts right now, it's simply appealing to a wide audience + Mans isn't ugly + people will remember the performance even after they saw 26 others. The whole package makes a winner.
Let's have a look at the other favorites ....

is of course a pleasing and radio-friendly song but the problem here is it's pace - we have a lot mid-tempo songs this year. Only one of the persons I played the songs to, said that he could see it winning. The others couldn't believe that it's seen as a favorite. Their verdict: too forgettable! Without knowing how their performance will exactly look like, I would say that their finishing position really depends on the draw. At this point anything could happen.

is interesting. We have a pleasing song, sung by a beautiful women with an unusual voice. But is this voice really appealing to wide audience? I have to admit that I personally find it rather annoying sometimes. My test people even called her "poor-man's-Duffy". It stands out for sure but winning? She'd better pull out an amazing performance then. For now I feel like Slovenia may has a bigger chance then Estonia.

has not the slightest chance of winning. I would bet all my belongings on them not winning. THIS music style is everything but appealing to a wide audience - it's simply too special. Of course, it is a good composition and their voices are great but that's hardly a criteria for winning Eurovision. It's also kind of old fashioned and I guess it will end up like France in 2011 did. It's a fan-wank.

is one of those songs that is mostly underestimated among fans. It is without a doubt a serious contender. A talented singer with a song that is more mainstream that all the others in the field + it's Australia Depending on the draw and on the performance I guess that it will fight for the win. My "test audience" would agree on that.

I feel like it's gonna be between Australia and Sweden.
BUT as we all know, things can and will change after rehearsals - Eurovision is always good for a surprise
maybe one of the female-artists grows a beard until may

 

[Pawhlen]

We will all get hints about who is the most popular after the rehearsals has started and all 40 participants has rehearsed once

 

[SuperGirl]

Sweden is a major favorite this year? Wait what?

No, that's not what I meant. What I meant is that 2012 and 2013 is years when ESC fans predicted totally correct winners. then why do some people just talk about 2014?? I think they they desperatly want to think their fave to win.why shouldn't any of the faves win this year?

 

[SuperGirl]

Yes, I agree with the posters above.

More non- esc fans seems to like Sweden than Italy and Estonia.

What that means is to everyone to have opinion about. But I have a feeling that Estonia and Italy are very liked by ESC fans but not that much by the regular person. Sweden is liked by both ESC fans and regulars.

 

[GRE]

I said it before, and i will say it once again.
So your attention please, ladies & gentlemen.
This year is 2013 all over again.
In 2013 we knew the winner 4 months earlier, and it was an up-tempo formulatic song, with contemporary production, a good looking person, ok singer, and powerful vision by a scandinavian (rich) country (one of the most favorite children of EBU).
This year we know the winner 2 months earlier, and it is an up-tempo formulatic song, with contemporary production, a good looking person, ok singer, and powerful vision, by a scandinavian (rich) country (one of the most favorite children of EBU).
Do i have to say more?
At least, i hope Swedes will give us next year the Friends Arena with 65.000 spectators

 

[popavapeur]

No, that's not what I meant. What I meant is that 2012 and 2013 is years when ESC fans predicted totally correct winners. then why do some people just talk about 2014?? I think they they desperatly want to think their fave to win.why shouldn't any of the faves win this year?

Maybe cause Euphoria was the best by far and Only Teardrops was the less boring of all songs ? (the ESC 14 was boring, i only remember Norway and Denmark from that year). That's not the case with 2015, this year looks like 2011 in Dusseldorf. Many contenders but not a real who stand out. Heroes is a pretty song, that's not the problem but for me, the staging is ridiculous (yes, i don't like the little character, reminds me an evolved version of ukraine 2012). The best parts are Mans alone, playing with the camera. I won't say it's a weak performance but not yet a winning performance that's why we should wait for the rehearsals.

There are other songs who are quite good and this year, the winner will be the one with the best stage performance. If nobody finds something better than Sweden, Sweden will win of course. The fact is : it's not hard to make a better stage performance than Sweden imo. The good point about Mans is that the performance has been tried once, so if he works enough, it will be a perfect stage performance (instead of the other countries, they'll try their performance for the first time for the ESC)

i'm still thinking a dark horse this year might win. (but Sweden is a real contender of course)

 

[Pawhlen]

I said it before, and i will say it once again.
So your attention please, ladies & gentlemen.
This year is 2013 all over again.
In 2013 we knew the winner 4 months earlier, and it was an up-tempo formulatic song, with contemporary production, a good looking person, ok singer, and powerful vision by a scandinavian (rich) country (one of the most favorite children of EBU).
This year we know the winner 2 months earlier, and it is an up-tempo formulatic song, with contemporary production, a good looking person, ok singer, and powerful vision, by a scandinavian (rich) country (one of the most favorite children of EBU).
Do i have to say more?
At least, i hope Swedes will give us next year the Friends Arena with 65.000 spectators

If and are "two of the most favorised children of EBU" then why don´t we have a automatic spot in the final?

[MENTION=14282]popavapeur[/MENTION]: You do know that he is a very high favorite because of the song and the performance he did in MF, and it will look the same in ESC too

 

[lizzy635]

According to the odds and the majority of the polls on Internet at the moment, is considered as a major favorite yes. But that does not gurantee that we actually will win

NOT that I think Estonia will win, but I just don't see big favoritism for sweden overall. Just look here.

And where Sweden is on top, it is not by a huge margin. So right now Sweden is not like Sweden in 2012 or Denmark in 2013, but it could all change by May.

Many contenders but not a real who stand out. Heroes is a pretty song, that's not the problem but for me, the staging is ridiculous (yes, i don't like the little character, reminds me an evolved version of ukraine 2012).

I was thinking about it the other day. That isn't the chalk figure a *little* bit childish? And if it is, then what has Eurovision history shown about childish stuff!?

 

[Pawhlen]

NOT that I think Estonia will win, but I just don't see big favoritism for sweden overall. Just look here.

And where Sweden is on top, it is not by a huge margin. So right now Sweden is not like Sweden in 2012 or Denmark in 2013, but it could all change by May.

In the odds, there are simularites with 2013 and , Emmelie had a simular lead in the odds all the way. On the very final night, had almost the same odds as have now. But let´s see the rehearsals first, after those, we get a hint of which countries that have winning chances

 

[GRE]

If and are "two of the most favorised children of EBU" then why don´t we have a automatic spot in the final?

The Big-5 situation has to do with the money these countries pay every year to EBU.
The favoritism towards Nordics, is a different story.

 

[popavapeur]

[MENTION=12855]Pawhlen[/MENTION] yes, that's why i said : *quote myself* : "The good point about Mans is that the performance has been tried once, so if he works enough, it will be a perfect stage performance"

The performance is already good, it works. But not excellent as Euphoria/ Undo or The Netherlands/Austria last year imo, that's the only big threat he could face… if another country find something better than Sweden (as it won't change), this country might win. The song, "Heroes" is not excellent enough to beat (only with the song) another great stage performance as the average level of the songs this year is almost equal and it won't be that hard to beat Sweden as all the countries already know what Mans is going to do…. i mean if i was HoD, i would say : let's see what Sweden is doing, let's make something better to win.

 

[SuperGirl]

NOT that I think Estonia will win, but I just don't see big favoritism for sweden overall. Just look here.

And where Sweden is on top, it is not by a huge margin. So right now Sweden is not like Sweden in 2012 or Denmark in 2013, but it could all change by May.



I was thinking about it the other day. That isn't the chalk figure a *little* bit childish? And if it is, then what has Eurovision history shown about childish stuff!?

Yeah those gnomes are soooooo childish right????? That's why all of the IJ gave it 12 points except two right?? That's why it had twice as much televotes than the runner-up right?? Damn we have must have many children in Sweden and in IJ lol.

 

[Pawhlen]

[MENTION=12855]Pawhlen[/MENTION] yes, that's why i said : *quote myself* : "The good point about Mans is that the performance has been tried once, so if he works enough, it will be a perfect stage performance"

The performance is already good, it works. But not excellent as Euphoria/ Undo or The Netherlands/Austria last year imo, that's the only big threat he could face… if another country find something better than Sweden (as it won't change), this country might win. The song, "Heroes" is not excellent enough to beat (only with the song) another great stage performance as the average level of the songs this year is almost equal and it won't be that hard to beat Sweden as all the countries already know what Mans is going to do…. i mean if i was HoD, i would say : let's see what Sweden is doing, let's make something better to win.

and tried with pyro in their performances 2013 just like , did it help? NO!!!

Copy another countrys performance is a very bad idea, especially if the country you are copying are a hot favorite. It´s like leaving your goal open in football so your opponent just can score a goal without no problem.

I wonder why not any country tried something with glass on stage back in 2011 to destroy for Eric Saade for example then?

If you as HoD are focusing on what some another countries delegation are doing on stage, you are on really troubled water. If i was HoD, I would have focused on my countrys song and performance.

 

[SuperGirl]

and tried with pyro in their performances 2013 just like , did it help? NO

I wonder why not any country tried something with glass on stage back in 2011 to destroy for Eric Saade for example then?

If you as HoD are focusing on what some another countries delegation are doing on stage, you are on really trouble water. If i was HoD, I would have focused on my countrys song and performance.

I completely agree with you.

Damn, that's sound very dangerous to focusing on another act than the own performance. So they will choose an act from what Sweden is doing not the act that will fit the song best?? Well if so they really have problem. Also if anything that would tell Sweden is a real big threat.

 

[Marie Jane]

NOT that I think Estonia will win, but I just don't see big favoritism for sweden overall. Just look here.

And where Sweden is on top, it is not by a huge margin. So right now Sweden is not like Sweden in 2012 or Denmark in 2013, but it could all change by May.



I was thinking about it the other day. That isn't the chalk figure a *little* bit childish? And if it is, then what has Eurovision history shown about childish stuff!?

God, you seriously need to stop thinking so much about Sweden. It's obvious you're afraid to see your country staying behind Sweden. You can't accept the fact that Sweden is a favourite to win (it is), and are always trying to find something to criticize. I'm sure you're not like this about "Goodbye to yesterday" show and all...?

I don't find the stage of "Heroes" childish, not even a bit. It's a great show, the best i've seen this year so far. And the international juries were almost unanimous too...

 

[SuperGirl]

[MENTION=12855]Pawhlen[/MENTION] yes, that's why i said : *quote myself* : "The good point about Mans is that the performance has been tried once, so if he works enough, it will be a perfect stage performance"

The performance is already good, it works. But not excellent as Euphoria/ Undo or The Netherlands/Austria last year imo, that's the only big threat he could face… if another country find something better than Sweden (as it won't change), this country might win. The song, "Heroes" is not excellent enough to beat (only with the song) another great stage performance as the average level of the songs this year is almost equal and it won't be that hard to beat Sweden as all the countries already know what Mans is going to do…. i mean if i was HoD, i would say : let's see what Sweden is doing, let's make something better to win.

I wonder why you are so focused to put down Sweden instead for saying which dark horses you think will win?

 

[GermanBango]

Let's just wait an see...