Winner predictions?

[Chorizo]

I can't really tell you why but I fear that Russia will win this whole thing. If "the West" has different winners it could be problematic because Russia will most likely get to points from as well as some safe points from and
The song isn't bad at all and it will at least please juries in the west - which will lead into some points here as well. That could be enough in a relatively open competition

Finland and the Czech Republic too?
I think the juries in might vote the song down to prevent their countries giving 12 points to Russia. I can see that the lack of a common favorite in Western Europe is a risk. All 15 countries you named giving Russia 12 points would mean 180 points for Russia but they will not get 12 points from everywhere and they will not get much from the rest, so that shouldn't be enough to win. It would have to be a very unlucky split vote, for Russia to be able to win.

The song is also a cheesefest, so politics aside, I don't see how it could be popular in the West.

 

[GermanBango]

Finland and the Czech Republic too?
I think the juries in might vote the song down to prevent their countries giving 12 points to Russia. I can see that the lack of a common favorite in Western Europe is a risk. All 15 countries you named giving Russia 12 points would mean 180 points for Russia but they will not get 12 points from everywhere and they will not get much from the rest, so that shouldn't be enough to win. It would have to be a very unlucky split vote, for Russia to be able to win.

The song is also a cheesefest, so politics aside, I don't see how it could be popular in the West.

Well, that's what I thought about this horrible song from last year too ... which became 6th in the end This one is much better tbh.
I guess they can expect some solid points from Finland and Czech Republic, yes. We have to wait and see - maybe someones star will rise high in and after the rehearsals
Anyway at the moment, I have the feeling that and will fight for the crown.

 

[QwaarJet]

saying Russia cant win but predicting Germany to win.
this is so random, I dont know if I should cry or laugh lol

No need to be insulting.

If you actually read what I said I called Germany a dark horse. Which means that they have the potential to be a surprise winner, but could also fade into obscurity. Russia is going to do well, probably better than Germany. What I'm saying is that because of certain considerations Russia has zero chance of victory, whereas I feel Germany have a small chance.

You don´t think and have more momentum because their performances at the partys in Amsterdam and London were very good too(favorites on the odds as well)

Both countries were favourites to win before Amsterdam and London, so all those shows did was reinforce that. Nothing moved dramatically.

 

[Chorizo]

Well, that's what I thought about this horrible song from last year too ... which became 6th in the end This one is much better tbh.
I guess they can expect some solid points from Finland and Czech Republic, yes. We have to wait and see - maybe someones star will rise high in and after the rehearsals
Anyway at the moment, I have the feeling that and will fight for the crown.

Last year, Russia got 13 points from countries you haven't mentioned before (Ukraine excluded), 6 from Macedonia, 5 from Malta and 2 from Portugal. A similar outcome seems likely this year.
I think Western juries will be reluctant to vote for it. We will see.

 

[Pawhlen]

I said RELATIVELY open (compared to 2012 or 2009)
You know, I don't give a shit about all these fan-polls ... They already were wrong in so many cases. We all know that it's not us fans who decide the outcome of the contest. (fortunately)

Did you really read my post? I said the ODDS not the polls

 

[GermanBango]

Did you really read my post? I said the ODDS not the polls

Sorry, I get old....
But anyway I give an even bigger shit about the odds

 

[eerik]

Russia cant win? Come on, they came 7th last year with a much more worse song.
Besides that Polina is a fantastic performer who has loads of experience and she will work her magic in Vienna.
I think Europe arent that idiotic who wont vote for Russia for obvious reasons, because 99.9999% of Russian population are actually normal, regular human beings.

Wow, you are so naive.

 

[DanielLuis]

Wow, you are so naive.

Considering "Shine" managed to be 6th I don't know how it's so hard to believe that "A million voices" has a shot at winning.

 

[Pawhlen]

Sorry, I get old....
But anyway I give an even bigger shit about the odds

They don´t always tell the truth either, but they have more truth than fan polls still

If I don´t remember too much wrong there were not that huge gap between some countries in 2011, it was very even with on top followed by and

 

[GermanBango]

They don´t always tell the truth either, but they have more truth than fan polls still

If I don´t remember too much wrong there were not that huge gap between some countries in 2011, it was very even with on top followed by and

But in the end (at least so early) these odds are defined by fans. They are the "experts" and they put their money on the entry which gets the most hype and this shortens their odds even more. That's why I don't trust them until we saw rehearsals ... at least.

 

[Pawhlen]

But in the end (at least so early) these odds are defined by fans. They are the "experts" and they put their money on the entry which gets the most hype and this shortens their odds even more. That's why I don't trust them until rehearsals are through... at earliest.

I´m pretty sure that and will stay at the top even when the rehearsal starts (their performances in Amsterdam and London were very good), the same with

 

[GermanBango]

I´m pretty sure that and will stay at the top even when the rehearsal starts (their performances in Amsterdam and London were very good), the same with

I guess we'll have to wait and see

 

[Ritararita]

Finland and the Czech Republic too?

I think the only reason why the Czech Republic had always some points for Russia (and some other Eastern-European countries) during 2007-2009 is the well-known fact that Czechs were not interested in Eurovision and didn´t really vote. So, the immigrants from all these countries with long Eurovision tradition probably were more active. This could happen again, BUT... this time there will be also a jury.

If the jury members will be the same people who picked the song and singers in internal selection, then I am 100% sure it means null points for from . All these people are strictly anti-Russian and one of them - composer Michael Kocáb - is actually a former Czech minister for human rights and a person directly responsible for expulsion of Russian occupants from (then) Czechoslovakia.

 

[ZoboCamel]

I can't entirely disagree with the odds this year - Sweden seems to be a likely winner at the moment, with a well-performed, catchy song backed up by flawless staging. Still, I think that people are discounting Estonia too easily: their song probably has the broadest appeal of any this year, and both online and offline, I've seen more people calling Estonia their favourite than Sweden. For the entirely opposite reason, I feel like Italy is in with a good shot too, as there's nothing else quite like it, and it really does have a huge impact when they nail those big notes live with a smile to the camera.

For some less safe choices: I think Norway and Spain are dismissed far too quickly by some. Both could benefit hugely from nailing their staging, and people seem to be overlooking Norway's strong placings in most fan polls just because it's another ballad in a sea of ballads, even though it already achieved those placings in spite of that fact. Meanwhile, whenever I've shown the songs to my non-Eurovision friends, Spain is equal first with Sweden in terms of what stands out most to them, even with Sweden's flashy staging.

There are a bunch of other countries in with a chance, of course - Australia's score is going to be very unpredictable, Belgium could take the crown if they bring good staging and everyone feels like voting for something modern, and both Russia and Azerbaijan are bringing strong singers, big songs and consistent voting allies in the East - but I feel like the above five are the most likely.

 

[nofuxCZ]

Still think Italy will win. People are comparing it to similar ESC songs from the past, but none of them was so strong like Italy this year. I've seen also lots of people say it won't be popular amongst public, but isn't pop-opera actually popular in talent/singing shows where televoting is involved? At least here in the Got Talent franchise, there were pop-opera acts in top 3 every season and I've seen pop-opera acts popular in other international versions of this show too...

 

[ParadiseES]

Interesting result in eurovision-spain's poll:

COUNTRY (TELEVOTING/JURY)
1- Italy (3/1)
2- Estonia (1/4)
3- Slovenia (2/5)
4- Sweden (6/2)
5- Belgium (8/3)
6- Norway (5/7)
7- Albania (4/13)
8- Spain (7/10)
9- Azerbaijan (9/11)
10- Israel (11/8)
11- Russia (14/9)
12- Germany (10/15)
13- France (13/12)
14- Iceland (12/18)
15- Austria (16/17)
16- Netherlands (17/16)
17- Australia (27/6)
18- Belarus (15/21)
19- Lithuania (24/14)
20- Latvia (22/19)
21- Greece (19/23)
22- Denmark (21/22)
23- Georgia (18/26)
24- United Kingdom (25/20)
25- Malta (20/27)
26- Ireland (23/24)
27- FYR Macedonia (26/25)

SEMIFINAL 1
1- Estonia (1/2)
2- Belgium (3/1)
3- Albania (2/4)
4- Russia (4/3)
5- Belarus (5/6)
6- Netherlands (6/5)
7- Denmark (10/7)
8- Georgia (7/11)
9- Greece (8/10)
10- FYR Macedonia (11/9)
11- Romania (12/8)
12- Armenia (9/13)
13- Hungary (13/12)
14- Serbia (14/14)
15- Moldova (15/15)
16- Finland (16/16)

SEMIFINAL 2
1- Slovenia (1/2)
2- Sweden (3/1)
3- Norway (2/3)
4- Azerbaijan (4/5)
5- Israel (5/4)
6- Iceland (6/7)
7- Latvia (8/8)
8- Lithuania (10/6)
9- Malta (7/12)
10- Ireland (9/10)
11- Cyprus (11/11)
12- Montenegro (13/9)
13- Poland (12/14)
14- Portugal (14/15)
15- Switzerland (16/13)
16- Czech Republic (15/16)
17- San Marino (17/17)

 

[GWTW1939]

^^^
Most interesting that they have Sweden doing better with the jury then the televote when fans online are predicting the opposite. The claim is it will be the jury that prevents Sweden from winning when that says the opposite

And Israel 4th with the jury in the semi :? most surprising

And Russia doing better with the jury then the televote in the final xwhat Even Alexey got 7th in the televote in 2011 and they say Polina 14th

 

[Galandar]

2011 was a little similar to this year but what Azerbaijan did was a very impressive staging plus Turkey and Armenia didn't make it to the final. Some think Turkey's non-qualification helped Azerbaijan a lot. I say it did but just a little bit, for instance, see the voting of Germany in 2011 where Azerbaijan got zero points. That says a lot. On the other hand, non-qualification of Armenia did helped even more, while in ex-USSR and the region of Eastern Europe there was no rival anymore for achieving a higher score.

True that this year is more or less similar to 2011. However, I don't think Russia will get a much higher score than what it usually gets. First, the song is really blind and even less appealing than Azerbaijan 2011. I also don't see it having a very outstanding stage. Second, there is some anti-Russia trend in the Western Europe which will to some extent influence the voting.

In general, this year it is still early to predict the winner (we haven't seen rehearsals) but I would rather expect either Italy or Sweden to win. Italy is usually doing well but this is the very first time after their come back they have such a favourite entry. Sweden can do it not because of the song (the song is ok but not great) the same like Azerbaijan 2011. Estonia and Slovenia are very nice songs and will do well but I simply can't see them winning the whole thing.

 

[ParadiseES]

^^^
Most interesting that they have Sweden doing better with the jury then the televote when fans online are predicting the opposite. The claim is it will be the jury that prevents Sweden from winning when that says the opposite

And Israel 4th with the jury in the semi :? most surprising

And Russia doing better with the jury then the televote in the final xwhat Even Alexey got 7th in the televote in 2011 and they say Polina 14th

Well, this "televoting" is about Spanish fans only. There are no former Soviet republics voting for Russia here, that's why
Actually, I expect Russia doing much better in the juries in Western countries because the song is mostly jury material and Western voters don't usually give Russia many points.

BTW as far as I know, this voting was made by people making tops online, so I guess some people might have punished the Swedish song since it's a favourite which is also getting a little bit of hatred too. This would explain it, but also I must say this year Sweden is less popular than usual among Spanish fans. At least that's what I see when I read comments and opinions.

 

[DanielLuis]

2011 was a little similar to this year but what Azerbaijan did was a very impressive staging plus Turkey and Armenia didn't make it to the final. Some think Turkey's non-qualification helped Azerbaijan a lot. I say it did but just a little bit, for instance, see the voting of Germany in 2011 where Azerbaijan got zero points. That says a lot. On the other hand, non-qualification of Armenia did helped even more, while in ex-USSR and the region of Eastern Europe there was no rival anymore for achieving a higher score.

True that this year is more or less similar to 2011. However, I don't think Russia will get a much higher score than what it usually gets. First, the song is really blind and even less appealing than Azerbaijan 2011. I also don't see it having a very outstanding stage. Second, there is some anti-Russia trend in the Western Europe which will to some extent influence the voting.

In general, this year it is still early to predict the winner (we haven't seen rehearsals) but I would rather expect either Italy or Sweden to win. Italy is usually doing well but this is the very first time after their come back they have such a favourite entry. Sweden can do it not because of the song (the song is ok but not great) the same like Azerbaijan 2011. Estonia and Slovenia are very nice songs and will do well but I simply can't see them winning the whole thing.

I guess the whole theory that Azerbaijan won in 2011 just because Turkey wasn't there kinda went out of the window in the previous 3 years. Last year Turkey wasn't there either and Azerbaijan did terribly in the televoting.

Anyway that might very well happen, Sweden can win with the advantage the staging will give. In a close year the staging is essential. I'm hoping Estonia, Slovenia, Norway or Latvia (I do believe Latvia is a possible winner) can win though, and I'd prefer Italy winning over Sweden.