Who will win?

[Verjamem]

So what? Do the voters and juries think, ohh great songs but they won 2009, 2012 and 2013. We can't vote for them

NRK, SVT and DR probably want to win in future, but not now. They don't have a money and vigour to host contest. Only potential Scandinavian winner in 2015 is Finland.

 

[SuperGirl]

NRK, SVT and DR probably want to win in future, but not now. They don't have a money and vigour to host contest. Only potential Scandinavian winner in 2015 is Finland.

How do they choose who will win ESC? I thought it is the voters and juries?

 

[greece]

4 people here try to explain why Sweden cant win. If you want to think that Sweden will win do it. But then if we want to predict that Sweden will stay in the semis and Monaco will win, it's our problem I dont get why all this It is just each person's personal thinking, and this thinking says no Sweden. However you can vote for Sweden in the poll and then write a comment saying why Sweden will win.

If I was trying to make everyone believe that Greece will win, only cause of same good places and cause it's my country, how it would seem? I think we explain it more that we could and it is really obvious why Sweden can't win at 2015... and no we are not jealous at all. Why we are jealous? Cause we say our opinion? Yes Sweden send good entries but let's be honest for once, it will be really rare if someone from Scandinavia (maybe expect from Iceland) win the next Contest

 

[SuperGirl]

If it's rare that Scandinavia will win next year what about your so called hot faves netherlands and Hungary then? Hungary still needs to win. They actually hasn't been in top 3 yet. Netherlands hasn't won since 1975. Since then Sweden has 4 victories alone. Then add 3 victories for Norway and 2 for Denmark. Finland has 1 win.

Sorry but it's clearly jealousy. People rather want new countries to win than Scandinavia. The fact that people actually use Scandis victories as excuses to why they can't win prove it.

 

[greece]

I am not the only one who call them hot faves Many people call them like that. Austria won after a lot of years as well. And what if Sweden has 4 wins,Norway 3 etc... Ireland has 7 and they stayed in the semis. Anyone can win. All we say it is that Sweden has less chances to win that Hungary and Netherlands. But actually if you see my list Sweden is in the top 5 of my predictions, so I really dont get what annoys you. Even Azerbaijan can't be always in top 10.

Jealous of what? Of course people want new countries to win, and that's the most normal. We use their latest victories to prove that Scandinavians probably won't win this year. I don't get what needs more explain. For example if Russia win at 2020, Belarus at 2023,Ukraine at 2024 it will be really difficult to see someone from the Soviet block winning. That happens to all the blocks. Really why people should be jealous of Sweden? They were jealous of Azerbaijan and Armenia,cause of their good results? No. The same happens with Sweden. It is JUST our opinion nothing more, were is the problem? We cant all agree, you know...

 

[SuperGirl]

I am not the only one who call them hot faves Many people call them like that. Austria won after a lot of years as well. And what if Sweden has 4 wins,Norway 3 etc... Ireland has 7 and they stayed in the semis. Anyone can win. All we say it is that Sweden has less chances to win that Hungary and Netherlands. But actually if you see my list Sweden is in the top 5 of my predictions, so I really dont get what annoys you. Even Azerbaijan can't be always in top 10.

Jealous of what? Of course people want new countries to win, and that's the most normal. We use their latest victories to prove that Scandinavians probably won't win this year. I don't get what needs more explain. For example if Russia win at 2020, Belarus at 2023,Ukraine at 2024 it will be really difficult to see someone from the Soviet block winning. That happens to all the blocks. Really why people should be jealous of Sweden? They were jealous of Azerbaijan and Armenia,cause of their good results? No. The same happens with Sweden. It is JUST our opinion nothing more, were is the problem? We cant all agree, you know...

Because I don't see why Sweden should have less chances to win than Hungary? Hungary that never has been in top 3. A placement that Sweden has 3 years in the 4 latest years. How is Hungary's chances bigger than Sweden's.

Ireland is a bad example since they don't have the results right now as any of the Scandinavian countries have.

Wouldn't the latest Scandinavian victories actually prove they can win? Netherlands hasn't won since 1975 and Hungary has never won,what is saying they can win? Where's the prove?

 

[Leydan]

[MENTION=14000]SuperGirl[/MENTION] It's like you're trolling us all. you've been told over and over and over again why Sweden or any other Scandinavian country will probably not win next year, which is likely because they've just hosted and will not want to go through it all and spend all that money again. Denmark especially considering they hugely overspent this year. I'd expect Sweden going for a win near 2020. Maybe couple of years earlier. Your point you keep raising about The Netherlands and Hungary having less chance is just nonsense. Austria has had one of the worst records ever in ESC, Apart from 2011 they were last in the final in 2004 where they came 21st place with 9 points. 2011 they only got 18th place. Nevertheless they still went on to win this years contest. You don't need to be consistently good at ESC to win.

 

[greece]

Because I don't see why Sweden should have less chances to win than Hungary? Hungary that never has been in top 3. A placement that Sweden has 3 years in the 4 latest years. How is Hungary's chances bigger than Sweden's.

Ireland is a bad example since they don't have the results right now as any of the Scandinavian countries have.

Wouldn't the latest Scandinavian victories actually prove they can win? Netherlands hasn't won since 1975 and Hungary has never won,what is saying they can win? Where's the prove?

You know, say whatever you want, I'm done. Ok Sweden will win with recor of points if this is what you want to hear, but at least I have the right to say my opinion. If you don't want to hear it, just ignore my posts.

 

[SuperGirl]

[MENTION=14000]SuperGirl[/MENTION] It's like you're trolling us all. you've been told over and over and over again why Sweden or any other Scandinavian country will probably not win next year, which is likely because they've just hosted and will not want to go through it all and spend all that money again. Denmark especially considering they hugely overspent this year. I'd expect Sweden going for a win near 2020. Maybe couple of years earlier. Your point you keep raising about The Netherlands and Hungary having less chance is just nonsense. Austria has had one of the worst records ever in ESC, Apart from 2011 they were last in the final in 2004 where they came 21st place with 9 points. 2011 they only got 18th place. Nevertheless they still went on to win this years contest. You don't need to be consistently good at ESC to win.

I didn't say they can't win. But now we are talking about predictions. I don't see how they are bigger faves than the Scandinavian countries.

Also if the Scandis don't want win then why participate at all? It's nonsense. What are saying that Netherlands and Hungary want to win more than Sweden? If Hungary win that much and Sweden not then why haven't they been in top 3 yet? Sweden has been in top 3 in 3 of the latest 4 years. Sweden. Ireland won 4 times in 5 years. Why can't that happen again?

Sweden won 1991 and 1999. It's 8 years between them. So 8 years is possible but not 3 years. Seriously? So maybe you know what's SVT's limit is between their victories?

 

[Leydan]

There is absolutely no reasoning with you. I don't even know why i'm even bothering to try and discuss this with you.

 

[SuperGirl]

There is absolutely no reasoning with you. I don't even know why i'm even bothering to try and discuss this with you.

You didn't answer the question. What's SVT's limit between victories? You seems to know that.

 

[Leydan]

You didn't answer the question. What's SVT's limit between victories? You seems to know that.

Ok. They seem to go a victory round about every 10 years, give or take. 1991-1999 8 years, 1999-2012 12 years. Based it on that.

 

[SuperGirl]

Ok. They seem to go a victory round about every 10 years, give or take. 1991-1999 8 years, 1999-2012 12 years. Based it on that.

Nonsense. If this is true then esc is pure BS for me. Songs and performance should decide the winner, nothing else. Btw, how do you know the limit isn't 3 years from now? BTW, how do you know Nethetlands want to win? They hasn't won in 40 years. Pretty long time for country that want to win so much.

 

[Verjamem]

Ireland won 4 times in 5 years. Why can't that happen again?

Because today ESC is more close-fought and more countries are participating. In 90's there was a 22-25 states in one edition of contest. In 2010s it's 37-43 nations.

Also if the Scandis don't want win then why participate at all? It's nonsense.

Participating countries want to win in every possible edition? I don't think so, it's not nonsense.

Sweden won 1991 and 1999. It's 8 years between them. So 8 years is possible but not 3 years.

It happened in 90's, not in the last time.

 

[FoxOfShadows]

I don't see how they are bigger faves than the Scandinavian countries.

The reason why Hungary and The Netherlands are currently big favourites is because of there strong positioning in the last few years. Recently, a lot of winning countries have a had good placements one or two years before they win. For example, Azerbaijan. Great placements between 2008 and 2010 before there victory in 2011. Same goes for Russia, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. There are of course exceptions, notably Germany and Austria, but usually the winner comes from a country who has done well in previous years.

Which countries have done well in 2013 and 2014? 6 countries got top 10 placements both years, Russia, Ukraine, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands and Hungary. Russia and Ukraine always do well so there's not much evidence to suggest them winning there. Denmark hosted it this year and considering there massive overspending on the contest, are unlikely to want to host it again. Norway are in a similar boat as it is only a few years since they won and hosted the contest. That leaves The Netherlands and Hungary. Both these countries did better in 2014 than they did 2013, showing improvement. Both are also very determined to win as Hungary have never won and it's been a while since The Netherlands have so both are going to try hard to win next year and the following years.

IMO, Sweden are always a contender, mainly because of their very strong NFs.

 

[SuperGirl]

Still it isn't Denmark or Sweden ect who choose who will host the next esc. Televoters and juries around Europe make that decision.

It's ridiculous to think SVT make the decision to win every 10th year. Damn they must be very good to know which songs and performance will win ESC. I mean seriously? So why even make ESC at all? If we know that some countries want or want to win?

So,

2015: Hungary/ Netherlands
2016: Hungary/Netherlands
2017: UK
2018: Ukraine
2019: Serbia
2020: Sweden
2021: Denmark
2022: Norway

Ect.

Is this correct for you people who seems to have a crystal ball? Why even make ESC if the results are this obvious?

 

[SuperGirl]

Still the fact is that Hungary that people seems to think to do well lately hasn't been better than 4th and that was 1994.

Sweden, who according you don't want, was 3rd as late as 2014. So if Hungary do do well lately Sweden do that too.

 

[LalehForWD]

[MENTION=14000]SuperGirl[/MENTION] I think it's very much up to yourself how serious you want to take the subject. To be honest, few Swedes wanted us to win last year with Robin and this year with Sanna (although it seemed as a possibility the last days at ESC Köpenhamn). I think it will take many years before we get such a true winner as Loreen again.

För övrigt: Välkommen till forumet!

 

[Haverdge]

It's impossible to tell because in most years (with some outliers like 2009 and 2012), everything comes down to the last minute. Sometimes the quality of the performance can truly make or brake a song, and other times, the performance order matters too-- it's just impossible to win from certain positions, and it's proven that performance order has a direct impact on the result. And then there are other times when we'll hear a song we think will win, but the dark horse ends up putting up such a strong gimmick that they end up winning.

We rarely get editions of songs in which we can identify the winner the second we hear it in a field of other songs, so at this point, it's completely impossible to tell. Previous results in the run up to the victory should not be used as precursors to what will happen. Nobody saw Austria winning in 2014 in 2013, and that remained true even up till the week before the contest with all of the songs available. To me and everyone else watching the show with me, Austria's win was a total surprise.

Also, people bring up Azerbaijan as an example of how successful showings in previous years might lead to victories, but they too are outliers because most countries would not even think of spending that much money on trying to win Eurovision, or think that it would really mean anything if they won it in the first place. A lot of their efforts were also for PR purposes and image promotion, and we saw that with how they hosted the show. In my opinion, successful showings one year are not indicative of a potential winners. Austria didn't even qualify for the final last year, then it won.

 

[SuperGirl]

[MENTION=14000]SuperGirl[/MENTION] I think it's very much up to yourself how serious you want to take the subject. To be honest, few Swedes wanted us to win last year with Robin and this year with Sanna (although it seemed as a possibility the last days at ESC Köpenhamn). I think it will take many years before we get such a true winner as Loreen again.

För övrigt: Välkommen till forumet!

It's different because we knew the entries.

Let me ask you: without know the entries who do you predict to win Sweden or Netherlands/Hungary?

No, i didn't want Robin to win ESC. I didn't want him to win MF either. Sanna is a different question. I wanted her to win ESC because it was one of the best entries last year. Still it wasn't even my fave in MF.