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The victories of the next 10 years are already certain

AdelAdel

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Also, the fact that Slovenia is the only country from ex-Yug in the EU right now, also makes some impact.
 

rajo

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I still don't get it. What does that have to do with Eurovision?
 

rajo

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Okay, but I don't see the impact on the votes. It's like saying the other ex-Yu countries are envious because Slovenia is in the EU.

They are all gonna join the EU sooner or later. Being in the EU is no disadvantage in Eurovision.
 

AdelAdel

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I'd argue on that. Croatia will become a member state in 2013. Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia all have "candidate status". But the biggest problem is with Bosnia and primarily - Kosovo.
And yes, I think they are envious of Slovenia.
 

rajo

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wow, the nordic block votes are really interesting, even mind-blowing :eek:
didn't expect that!

Iceland200420052006200720082009201020112012SUMAVG
Finland12127104110,25
Denmark10812412125639,00
Winner1221270123812687,56
Sweden8071033712506,25
Norway0124101201395,57
Runner-Up74565037374,63
Norway200420052006200720082009201020112012SUMAVG
Sweden1211012741012688,50
Finland124412328,00
Denmark126128872557,86
Winner741210512012627,75
Iceland5812685447,33
Serbia601060610385,43
Bosnia and Herzegovina10786100040455,00
Runner-Up61032012208434,78
Sweden200420052006200720082009201020112012SUMAVG
Winner10121210012123718,88
Finland1212747428,40
Serbia1241067010497,00
Norway382121243446,29
Bosnia and Herzegovina87106105080546,00
Denmark108508100415,86
Runner-Up12673010507505,56
Iceland81010194,75
Denmark200420052006200720082009201020112012SUMAVG
Sweden1271012841012759,38
Winner5212601212012616,78
Iceland21210366396,50
Runner-Up71023710608535,89
Turkey1080104662465,75
Norway0121101250405,71
Finland12405215,25
Germany00350712810455,00
Finland200420052006200720082009201020112012SUMAVG
Estonia12710299,67
Winner831210812512708,75
Sweden1267854612607,50
Runner-Up108126310338637,00
Iceland2710587396,50
Norway012512800375,29
Denmark2300205121,71
Study these data thoroughly, I am gonna ask you questions you later :twisted:
 

AdelAdel

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Well, these votings are not even near to the ex-Yug when it comes to neighbor voting. Iceland and Finland receive the least points from the "main" Scandinavian countries, and that's not really a surprise.
But why do you have Bosnia on that list?
 

A-lister

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Well, these votings are not even near to the ex-Yug when it comes to neighbor voting. Iceland and Finland receive the least points from the "main" Scandinavian countries, and that's not really a surprise.
But why do you have Bosnia on that list?

Because of diaspora voting I guess? We tend to give Bosnia quite high points every year because of that.
 

Jim

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I strongly believe (don't know why?) that France will be the winner next year!
 

rajo

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Actually, I'm surprised.

Finland is Number 1 choice for Iceland (a whopping 10 point average), and Sweden, and also high with Norway. On the other hand, there are also two obvious explanations:
Finland won in 2006, and was only one of two Scandinavian entries in 2007. So this fueled the support for Finland I guess.

In general, Scandinavians can rely on each other but not that strongly as the ex-Yus. There also years when they are even punishing each other with nul points.

And the Scandinavians regularly vote with the actual winner rather than their neighbours.

So, let's have a look at Iceland first. They massively back Finland, and I am not sure what's the connection between them. It is the strongest support overall among Scandinavians. I really don't get it. Denmark also gets constant support from Iceland, but this is not so surprising, since Iceland used to be a Danish territory once.
The situation with Norway and Sweden is on and off and the support for the winner is stronger than for Norway/Sweden.
Iceland usually likes the winning songs, except for Germany 2011, Russia 2008 and Greece 2005. What I don't get it, is why they loved Azerbaijan 2011, when the others didn't. Iceland always gave 12 points to a nordic friend.

Norway's favourite neighbour is of course Sweden. They are always awarded with pretty points. The other countries also always got Norwegian points on every ocassion, such a loyal friend!
But Norway rather votes with the winner than with Iceland! Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina also score decently on Norway due to diaspora there. Norway always gave 12 points to their neighbours, except in 2010, it was Lena.

Sweden's vote is really interesting. Finland is ahead with a massive 9,50 average. Okay, it won in 2006 and was the only neighbourly choice in the following year. Next comes the actual winner already (although Russia 2008 didn't get any points) and then Serbia over all the other friends and neighbours. Norway is in a sandwich position between Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. They can rely on Swedish help even when they screw up (2004, 2010, 2012).
Support for Denmark is surprisingly poor. Less points than Bosnia and Herzegovina. And Swedes seem to be completely detached with Iceland.


Denmark on the other hand loves Sweden a lot. For the others, Denmark is not that loyal: the winning country comes in second, although Denmark ignored Greece, Russia and Azerbaijan in their winning years. Denmark also prefers the runner-ups as well as Turkey over Norway and Finland. And in the last 4 years, Denmark became the strongest supporter for Germany!

Although Finland is liked by their neighbours, they liked Estonia best and support them massively whenever there is the chance to. They are also rather voting with the winner (or someone different like Hungary 2011) than with their nordic friends. They always gave points to the winners, even when Norway, Sweden and Denmark did not. They support Iceland and Norway less than the runner-up. So Finland should get a fair-play award.
And Denmark seems to be on the Finnish black list. 12 points in 9 years is really poor. Why so much hate? :(
 

AdelAdel

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Okay rajo, I was waiting for this post, now let me explain some things...

Finland and Iceland are NOT considered to be culturally part of Scandinavia by many people in Norway, Sweden and Denmark (the countries, which form the "true" Scandinavia). So, if Finland & Iceland cannot be sure of the "true" Scandinavian support, they vote for eachother instead. The Finnish language is completely unrelated to the Scandinavian languages, and the Icelandic language, although from the same language family, differs greatly from the others.
On the other hand, Finland shares much of the culture with Estonia, also their languages come from the same language family, so they strongly support eachother.
 

Matt

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I saw that Sweden's points for Finland in 2009 weren't listed. They gave them 4 points if I'm not mistaken.
 

rajo

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I hope you are happy now, because this means that Finland is no longer Sweden's No. 1 xcry
 

sannerz

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Yeah, the Scandis don't like Finland... well, Sweden sort of does, but the others don't.
Iceland is much closer to the Scandis than Finland. :p
 
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