The victories of the next 10 years are already certain
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It's funny to see how since 2009 (re-introduction of juries) the winning countries are rich ones.
Sweden this year (even if Eurovision is unpredictable) was more likely to win because it had a great song but also since it could afford hosting the next edition. As we can see, all scandinavian countries (except Iceland whose economy's not that great I guess) won during 2000s.
Now, economy-wise, there aren't a lot of contenders for the victory in Sweden...
So I guess that a country from the big 5 again would be more likely to host: first the United Kingdom, France (even if it would shock me), or in a lesser extent, Italy...
Otherwise, countries that have money are much smaller and so usually don't have an easy way to win the whole thing: I think of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria. But why not! That'd be awesome
Last country I would see winning: Poland if they return (despite their previous bad results). Their economy is quite good, they (allegedly) withdrew this year to save money, and with the financial benefits from the Euro soccer 2012... I don't find it impossible.
Well, these are just thoughts. I prefer believing that nowadays countries still win due to their songs, but I think that, at least juries take a little bit into account the economic situation of each country when allocating points.
What do you think guys?
Sweden this year (even if Eurovision is unpredictable) was more likely to win because it had a great song but also since it could afford hosting the next edition. As we can see, all scandinavian countries (except Iceland whose economy's not that great I guess) won during 2000s.
Now, economy-wise, there aren't a lot of contenders for the victory in Sweden...
So I guess that a country from the big 5 again would be more likely to host: first the United Kingdom, France (even if it would shock me), or in a lesser extent, Italy...
Otherwise, countries that have money are much smaller and so usually don't have an easy way to win the whole thing: I think of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria. But why not! That'd be awesome
Last country I would see winning: Poland if they return (despite their previous bad results). Their economy is quite good, they (allegedly) withdrew this year to save money, and with the financial benefits from the Euro soccer 2012... I don't find it impossible.
Well, these are just thoughts. I prefer believing that nowadays countries still win due to their songs, but I think that, at least juries take a little bit into account the economic situation of each country when allocating points.
What do you think guys?
It's funny to see how since 2009 (re-introduction of juries) the winning countries are rich ones.
Sweden this year (even if Eurovision is unpredictable) was more likely to win because it had a great song but also since it could afford hosting the next edition. As we can see, all scandinavian countries (except Iceland whose economy's not that great I guess) won during 2000s.
Now, economy-wise, there aren't a lot of contenders for the victory in Sweden...
So I guess that a country from the big 5 again would be more likely to host: first the United Kingdom, France (even if it would shock me), or in a lesser extent, Italy...
Otherwise, countries that have money are much smaller and so usually don't have an easy way to win the whole thing: I think of the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria. But why not! That'd be awesome
Last country I would see winning: Poland if they return (despite their previous bad results). Their economy is quite good, they (allegedly) withdrew this year to save money, and with the financial benefits from the Euro soccer 2012... I don't find it impossible.
Well, these are just thoughts. I prefer believing that nowadays countries still win due to their songs, but I think that, at least juries take a little bit into account the economic situation of each country when allocating points.
What do you think guys?
Juries put Italy in 1st place last year and they're financially not the most stable country so the juries are not going for the rich countries.
It's interesting how all these random conspiracy theories pop up. In reality this is what's happening Azerbaijan won in 2011, Sweden won in 2012 and I know for a fact that either Slovenia, Slovakia, San Marino or Spain will win next year. That way the beginning letters of each country spell ASS which is a hidden message from the EBU.
Good try!
I bet on San Marino!Seriously, if you think I was establishing conspiracy theories, you're wrong. I just highlighting the fact that recently since the economic crisis, only rich countries win. Last year, the juries put Italy in 1st place because they obviously wanted them to stay in the contest, and they knew that not enough people would vote for it to be higher than Azerbaijan.
Good try!
Seriously, if you think I was establishing conspiracy theories, you're wrong. I just highlighting the fact that recently since the economic crisis, only rich countries win. Last year, the juries put Italy in 1st place because they obviously wanted them to stay in the contest, and they knew that not enough people would vote for it to be higher than Azerbaijan.
So that's another conspiracy. There is no way that the song could have actually be the jury's favorite???
One thing we know is that no matter how they juries vote, there will always be accusations towards them so I'm taking it with a grain of salt.
I don't know why do you talk about conspiracy and accusations, I'm not complaining neither about the results nor about the system. By the way, this is off the subject, all I did was sharing my thoughts about the potential winning countries, you misinterpreted my post.
rajo
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It's a fact that by 2008 only very wealthy countries won the contest. We can conclude a conspiracy about this, but the facts remain.
Actually, I think that Russia was not very helpful as a host for future contests. Eurovision became a bloated and very expensive event. I think many countries are aware that they wouldn't be able to compete with the big money. I can't imagine Austria hosting this event, although statistics say we are the third strongest economy in the EU. We neither have a venue nor the money and ORF would go bankrupt. And there are a lot of countries who wouldn't be able to host Eurovision neither unless there is a downsizing in the future.
Eurovision was already fun in 2002 in Tallinn in a rather small venue and a simple stage.
Actually, I think that Russia was not very helpful as a host for future contests. Eurovision became a bloated and very expensive event. I think many countries are aware that they wouldn't be able to compete with the big money. I can't imagine Austria hosting this event, although statistics say we are the third strongest economy in the EU. We neither have a venue nor the money and ORF would go bankrupt. And there are a lot of countries who wouldn't be able to host Eurovision neither unless there is a downsizing in the future.
Eurovision was already fun in 2002 in Tallinn in a rather small venue and a simple stage.
Sim
Well-known member
On the first thing, I really do not agree.
Every country can win, also poor ones,...
On the second point I agree.
Russia was huge, a bit too
But I think the most important thing for a host country is to do what they want, and not compare themselves with previous contests
rajo
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The ex-YU Family - Analysis:
Votes in Finals since 2004
Tell me what you see there
next up: the nordic vote history....
Votes in Finals since 2004
| Slovenia | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | SUM | AVG |
| Serbia | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 76 | 10,86 | ||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 10 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 81 | 9,00 |
| Croatia | 5 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 8,20 | ||||
| Winner | 8 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 69 | 7,67 |
| Macedonia | 7 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 34 | 6,80 | ||||
| Runner-Up | 12 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 4,56 |
| Croatia | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | SUM | AVG |
| Serbia | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 74 | 10,57 | ||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 93 | 10,33 |
| Slovenia | 7 | 12 | 19 | 9,50 | |||||||
| Winner | 8 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 72 | 8,00 |
| Macedonia | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 7,40 | ||||
| Runner-Up | 12 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 55 | 6,11 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | SUM | AVG |
| Croatia | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 56 | 11,20 | ||||
| Serbia | 12 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 78 | 11,14 | ||
| Slovenia | 7 | 12 | 19 | 9,50 | |||||||
| Macedonia | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 43 | 8,60 | ||||
| Turkey | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 64 | 8,00 | |
| Winner | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 69 | 7,67 |
| Runner-Up | 12 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 45 | 5,00 |
| Macedonia | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | SUM | AVG |
| Albania | 12 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 11,17 | |||
| Serbia | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 67 | 9,57 | ||
| Slovenia | 6 | 10 | 16 | 8,00 | |||||||
| Bulgaria | 8 | 8 | 8,00 | ||||||||
| Turkey | 6 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 7,63 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 57 | 7,13 | |
| Winner | 8 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 61 | 6,78 |
| Croatia | 5 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 5,80 | ||||
| Runner-Up | 10 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 4,56 |
| Montenegro | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2012 | SUM | AVG | |||||
| Serbia | 12 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 12,00 | ||||||
| Winner | 12 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 9,25 | |||||
| Macedonia | 10 | 8 | 18 | 9,00 | |||||||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 7 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 35 | 8,75 | |||||
| Slovenia | 8 | 8 | 8,00 | ||||||||
| Albania | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 7,50 | |||||
| Croatia | 2 | 8 | 10 | 5,00 | |||||||
| Runner-Up | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3,75 | |||||
| Serbia | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | SUM | AVG |
| Macedonia | 10 | 12 | 22 | 11,00 | |||||||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 12 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 88 | 9,78 |
| Winner | 10 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 67 | 8,38 | |
| Slovenia | 5 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 8,00 | ||||
| Hungary | 6 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 7,00 | |||||
| Croatia | 6 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 6,00 | ||||
| Runner-Up | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 3,25 |
Tell me what you see there
next up: the nordic vote history....
Tell me what you see there
I see neighbor voting like you wouldn't believe...
rajo
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So, looks like I am gonna have a conversation on my own here....
We see the young ex-yugoslavian democracies profit massively from their split up, in particular Bosnia and Hercegovina and Serbia. They award each other with at least 8 points on every occasion.
But there are also interesting exceptions:
Slovenia and Croatia gave less points to Macedonia than to the actual winners. Maybe it's because they are on both ends of the vanished country and are not really attached to each other. Also notable, that Croatia is only Slovenia's third choice although it is only neighbour from this bunch of countries. It's also the other way round, but there is also more ethnic affiliation from Croatia towards Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Croatia and Serbia are tied for Bosnia and Herzegovina's first choice with a massive average of 11 points. Also Turkey scores better with Bosnia and Herzegovina than the actual winners. An educated guess tells me it may be due to Muslims living in BiH.
Macedonia also supports the other ex-YU countries massively, but to a lesser extent than Albania. Ethnic Albanians are the majority population in Macedonia. Also Turkey can rely on Macedonian votes, even more than Bosnia and Herzegovina. Croatia is awarded less points than the winner. It remains to be seen how Bulgaria does in future participation, but since there are lot of Bulgarians living in FYROM, I think they can also count on Macedonian votes.
Bulgaria received high votes from Macedonia in the Semifinals 2005 (8 points), 2006 (6 points), 2007 (7 points), 2008 (7 points), 2009 (5 points). In the combined vote era the scores suffered: 2011 (1 point), 2012 (6 points). Only in 2010 both countries didn't meet in the semifinals.
Montenegro is the sole contributor of a perfect 12 for Serbia every year. On the second place already comes the actual winner. So although the highest mark is deeply biased, the 2nd highest is already pretty fair. Croatia is the last choice for Montenigrians among their ex-YU friends.
Serbia puts Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia ahead of the actual winners, who always get high points from Serbia except for Azerbaijan last year which got no points at all. Hungary does better than Croatia with Serbia, I guess this is due to the ethnic Hungarians living in the Vojvoidina, the province between Hungarian border and river Danube.
We see the young ex-yugoslavian democracies profit massively from their split up, in particular Bosnia and Hercegovina and Serbia. They award each other with at least 8 points on every occasion.
But there are also interesting exceptions:
Slovenia and Croatia gave less points to Macedonia than to the actual winners. Maybe it's because they are on both ends of the vanished country and are not really attached to each other. Also notable, that Croatia is only Slovenia's third choice although it is only neighbour from this bunch of countries. It's also the other way round, but there is also more ethnic affiliation from Croatia towards Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Croatia and Serbia are tied for Bosnia and Herzegovina's first choice with a massive average of 11 points. Also Turkey scores better with Bosnia and Herzegovina than the actual winners. An educated guess tells me it may be due to Muslims living in BiH.
Macedonia also supports the other ex-YU countries massively, but to a lesser extent than Albania. Ethnic Albanians are the majority population in Macedonia. Also Turkey can rely on Macedonian votes, even more than Bosnia and Herzegovina. Croatia is awarded less points than the winner. It remains to be seen how Bulgaria does in future participation, but since there are lot of Bulgarians living in FYROM, I think they can also count on Macedonian votes.
Bulgaria received high votes from Macedonia in the Semifinals 2005 (8 points), 2006 (6 points), 2007 (7 points), 2008 (7 points), 2009 (5 points). In the combined vote era the scores suffered: 2011 (1 point), 2012 (6 points). Only in 2010 both countries didn't meet in the semifinals.
Montenegro is the sole contributor of a perfect 12 for Serbia every year. On the second place already comes the actual winner. So although the highest mark is deeply biased, the 2nd highest is already pretty fair. Croatia is the last choice for Montenigrians among their ex-YU friends.
Serbia puts Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia ahead of the actual winners, who always get high points from Serbia except for Azerbaijan last year which got no points at all. Hungary does better than Croatia with Serbia, I guess this is due to the ethnic Hungarians living in the Vojvoidina, the province between Hungarian border and river Danube.
Oh sorry Adel, I didn't see you coming
No problem
An interesting fact - Slovenia is usually the "least liked" in ex-Yugoslavia and therefore doesn't get the high notes from its ex-Yug partners (2007 being an exception). This applies more to the semi-finals, though, as Slovenia did not qualify that often.
rajo
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Slovenia's language is the most different from the rest. Also Slovenia is culturally different and ethnically homogenous. You don't find other Yugoslavian ethnicities in this country. Slovenia may be the country who has the least in common with the rest. Also Macedonia, which is ethnically rather Albanian and Bulgarian than Slavic.
Nevertheless, Slovenia massively supports Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia.
Nevertheless, Slovenia massively supports Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia.