Re: THE NETHERLANDS 2016 - Douwe Bob
Guys, the bookmakers use Betfair as their guide to pricing up the ESC markets & the people who set the odds on the Betfair exchange are every day people investing money in the Eurovision market. The prices you see are a product of the amount of money being wagered. The only way in which the odds compilers working for the bookmakers try and use their skill is in offering a slightly bigger price on a country the odds compiler thinks he or she can get beaten, ie, the odds compiler wants to attract customers to back this country because he or she believes it will not win.
Similarly, if a bookmaker is offering the lowest price on a country, it is either because they respect its chances greatly and are not keen to lay it ('lay' means to take the bets of customers wanting to back that country) and/or they have already taken bets on it at bigger prices and have enough of a liability on it winning already. This is partly what has happened with Betfred this year who led the way among the bookmakers pricing up the whole Eurovision market win-only. It was offering 66-1 Poland early on, then cut to 33-1, & now you see it is 7-2. Betfred would have taken bets at those bigger odds so they are now running for cover on Poland, and the other bookies have followed their lead.