ESC 2019 Betting Odds
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You could very well do, I highly doubt that anyone saw
and coming 3rd and 4th last year, I thought would had a decent chance but I never expected to finish that high honestlyAnything can happen
midnightsun
Veteran
Odds are always a self-fulfilling prophecy (when it comes to Eurovision).
People bet on their faves (or the ones they want to win) or countries who were popular in the past years (e.g. Sweden, Russia etc.) so odds go up for these. I don't think they're that much realistic until the rehearsal.
But when the rehearsals start some countries have already built a certain hype around them. So when it comes to vote especially the juries strongly orient themselves to the odds. This is why the jury result in the past years have often been much closer to the odds than the public vote. It's simply safer for the juries to vote like "all the people" vote (according to the odds) and not be hated than to be brave and to vote for what really deserves to be voted for according to the ESC rules. So I doubt most juries will not vote for a song that is in the top 5 odds by now. Which helps the song to get a good result in the end. Chasing one's own tail, in a way.
I don't want to go any deeper into this topic because I already discussed it a lot of times and besides this is solely my OWN opinion.
So there can always be some surprises when the public suddenly votes completely differently (e.g. Poland 2016, Sweden 2018 etc.). That's why I don't expect some of the betting odds to be accurate. They will change after the semis anyway.
People bet on their faves (or the ones they want to win) or countries who were popular in the past years (e.g. Sweden, Russia etc.) so odds go up for these. I don't think they're that much realistic until the rehearsal.
But when the rehearsals start some countries have already built a certain hype around them. So when it comes to vote especially the juries strongly orient themselves to the odds. This is why the jury result in the past years have often been much closer to the odds than the public vote. It's simply safer for the juries to vote like "all the people" vote (according to the odds) and not be hated than to be brave and to vote for what really deserves to be voted for according to the ESC rules. So I doubt most juries will not vote for a song that is in the top 5 odds by now. Which helps the song to get a good result in the end. Chasing one's own tail, in a way.
I don't want to go any deeper into this topic because I already discussed it a lot of times and besides this is solely my OWN opinion.
So there can always be some surprises when the public suddenly votes completely differently (e.g. Poland 2016, Sweden 2018 etc.). That's why I don't expect some of the betting odds to be accurate. They will change after the semis anyway.
I objectively proved that Juries arent influenced by the Odds (see etc...also I don think that who flopped with the TV got their High Jurypoints because of the Odds)
But we shouldnt forget that there is a strong correlation between Betting-Odds and Songquality.
etc...also I don think that who flopped with the TV got their High Jurypoints because of the Odds)But we shouldnt forget that there is a strong correlation between Betting-Odds and Songquality.
Ezio
Veteran
I am not enthusiastic about Netherlands, and even less about Russia. But I really can't imagine Switzerland winning or running-up with that song. It rather pulls off a Kate Ryan award nomination.
If Luca don´t manage to pull it off vocally, it can happen, but didn´t he won "The Voice" a couple of years ago?
I objectively proved that Juries arent influenced by the Odds (see
But we shouldnt forget that there is a strong correlation between Betting-Odds and Songquality.
There are always exceptions but the most important thing, the odds are most relevant after ALL acts have rehearsed at least once in Tel Aviv. Because it is then we will see some tendency probably
He won DSDS (aka Idol) but it was 2012 when he was 17.
Ezio
Veteran
He won German Idol 2012. You don't need a voice to win it, just smouldering looks.
Ok, I thought it was "the Voice"
You´re absolutely right, for
sake, we shall hope he doesn´t sound that bad live because if he does....
midnightsun
Veteran
The rehearsals are VERY important. I also changed my mind in the past during the semis. Some songs really surprise when performed live... there's this WOW effect which makes you like the whole package (while you didn't like the song alone much before) - and, on the other hand, you will get disappointed by some songs because they are terrible live, not only vocally, but bad staging, bad clothes, bad anything...
I also THINK that after the jury (semi) finals or even before some results will leak amongst the jurors which mabye affect their votes or even the odds, I don't know, it's just something I wouldn't rule out. So the public vote is still the most important but the younger the audience will be in the future the more the odds will influence them too. At the present day there is still a certain amount of viewers who aren't reading the odds or the internet I think, so the public vote is the most honest by now. But it will change in the future. Especially since they (broadcasters, committee) are already trying to influence the public, e.g. by determing the running order etc.
I also THINK that after the jury (semi) finals or even before some results will leak amongst the jurors which mabye affect their votes or even the odds, I don't know, it's just something I wouldn't rule out. So the public vote is still the most important but the younger the audience will be in the future the more the odds will influence them too. At the present day there is still a certain amount of viewers who aren't reading the odds or the internet I think, so the public vote is the most honest by now. But it will change in the future. Especially since they (broadcasters, committee) are already trying to influence the public, e.g. by determing the running order etc.
Spot on, that´s why the odds are quite useless until all have rehearsed once in Tel Aviv
Tuxedo
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Wtf, this is eurovision SONG contest. What do u mean he doesn't need voice. Great vocal and melody are most important for win. Fireworks, 3d walls, dance and all other sheningans can work only if there is great vocal and music. Also, German Idol and eurovision SONG contest can't be comparable.
Ezio
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I was talking about German Idol, not ESC, bye
Tuxedo
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FilipFromSweden
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After EiC yesterday, odds for Netherlands were shortened across the board, gaining another percentage point to sit at a 25% chance to win. Switzerland drifted in several markets and lost a percentage point now sitting at 11%
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision
https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision