Sabiondo
Well-known member
I guess why EBU let that those betting odds manipulate the ESC 2019 results!! 
If wasn't by this then couldn't be leading.
If wasn't by this then couldn't be leading.ESC 2019 Betting Odds
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4815162342
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Antho
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I can feel some jealousy hereI guess why EBU let that those betting odds manipulate the ESC 2019 results!!
Denmark inside but not Austria?
Austria wont be a Televoting-Qualifier, Im 100% sure of that. Only Juries can save them.
Yeah i expect Austria on juries top 5 on the semi-final so to be NQ they need a nearly 0 televoting!
choda
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I odds are being pretty realistic this year, because they do not leave a lot of space for suprises, like last year, when we had Ireland and Albania in and Belgium out, which was totally crazy, if someone told us that in March.
Anyway, I will take a brief look on these semifinal odds. One important thing - if a country has odd like 1.15 to qualify and 4th place, it doesn't mean prediction is for that country to finish fourth, it is just odd to qualify. There were a lot of cases when we could have sworn that some country will go trought, and it went, but from some of the lower position. You always have ones that suprises us, either positively or negatively. Let's start (Odds used are od 30. March, 0:57)
Semifinal 1:
1. Greece 1.06 - Odd is a bit lower than I expected. It is a 95 finalist but still it is Greece, and they know how to flop in recent years. Odd i would give for them is 1.12
2. Cyprus 1.07 - They will go trought, but i don't think they will win this semi. I think they would come lower than people think in final, and by that i mean they will miss top 10. Odd is realistic.
3. Iceland 1.14 - They will probably qualify but we have to know that juries often know to pull down song like this. Remember AWS qualifying last year by only 3 points. It is even more extreme, but it got a publicity, so it will go trought. I would give them 1.25 odd
4. Slovenia 1.18 - Realistic odd. Atmospheric duo (and my favourites ) are specific in this semi, and I can see them getting support from juries and viewers as well. Odds are realistic for them. They will have special advantage if they perform between faster songs, like Finland and Belarus.
5. Portugal 1.24 - It is real. There is chance of losing momentum with viewers, and of jury ruining this but probably won't happen. I see him like Joci Papai in 2017.
6. Belgium 1.26 - Too big odd, people should bet on this. This is, alongside Greece, the most jury friendly song of the evening, and they will pull it trought, totally unrelated with the viewers. Odd I would give is 1.15
7. Hungary 1.3 - To small odd, probably because he is returning artist. Joci could easily flop. Last time his advantage was singing in native language, now it isn't, because there are a lot of songs in this semi performed in native language as well. I see him fighting with a couple of countries to spot in final, and i would give it 1.55.
8. Estonia 1.36 - Realistic odd. We don't have to wait for the rehearsals to see stage show, like last year. Juries and televote will reply almost equaly. Chance of him getting out on Tuesday is if all borderline countries make good stuff. Not safe like Cyprus, Greece, Slovenia or Belgium but still good chances of progressing.
9. Australia 1.4 - Odd is a bit big, i would equal it with Estonia's 1.36. I see the viewers finally grabbing the phones and voting for Australia, and relatively safe qualification, 5th in a row, as well.
10.Czech Republic 1.46 - To small. I think last year success of this country also has an influence on the betting odds. I would give it around 1.6, it could easily be non-qualifier.
11. Serbia 1.6 - Guys, put money on it. It is not because it is my country, I say it because we came trought with songs that are not even close to this by quality, and trought tougher semifinals. This is one of biggest dark horses of the year. And i am confident that we are going trought, with support of juries especially and viewers. This should be around 1.35.
Seriously, don't know why odds for Serbia are so high, but better bet on it before it starts crumbling down It is also the only real female ballad of the year.
12. Poland 1.98 - Tulia could qualify, but most of the Polish diaspora are in second semi. Also, I don't see juries liking it a lot. It may qualify. Still, i would reduce odd on 1.9.
13. Finland 3.05 - Realistic odd. They probably won't go trought, it is a generic song, and nothing special happens. They play on Darude's name. Remember DJ Bobo and Gromee ?
14. San Marino 3.1 - I would reduce it to 3. He may suprise with televoters, hopefully jury won't ruin him like last time. Anyway, it has its chances, not so large but still.
15. Belarus 3.55 - I can't see it doing well with the juries, and scoring enough televotes to nivelate it. Odd is realistic
16. Georgia 5 - Probably last place, juries didn't like Iriao (what a crime it was, my second favourite last year ), and I see Oto in bottom 2 also. Realistic
17. Montenegro 5.1 - I would equal odd with Georgia. Probably votes from Serbia and Slovenia combined with a couple of jury constellation points will make this not last.
Enough for now, bloodbath of semi 2 in another post
Anyway, I will take a brief look on these semifinal odds. One important thing - if a country has odd like 1.15 to qualify and 4th place, it doesn't mean prediction is for that country to finish fourth, it is just odd to qualify. There were a lot of cases when we could have sworn that some country will go trought, and it went, but from some of the lower position. You always have ones that suprises us, either positively or negatively. Let's start (Odds used are od 30. March, 0:57)
Semifinal 1:
1. Greece 1.06 - Odd is a bit lower than I expected. It is a 95 finalist but still it is Greece, and they know how to flop in recent years. Odd i would give for them is 1.12
2. Cyprus 1.07 - They will go trought, but i don't think they will win this semi. I think they would come lower than people think in final, and by that i mean they will miss top 10. Odd is realistic.
3. Iceland 1.14 - They will probably qualify but we have to know that juries often know to pull down song like this. Remember AWS qualifying last year by only 3 points. It is even more extreme, but it got a publicity, so it will go trought. I would give them 1.25 odd
4. Slovenia 1.18 - Realistic odd. Atmospheric duo (and my favourites
) are specific in this semi, and I can see them getting support from juries and viewers as well. Odds are realistic for them. They will have special advantage if they perform between faster songs, like Finland and Belarus.5. Portugal 1.24 - It is real. There is chance of losing momentum with viewers, and of jury ruining this but probably won't happen. I see him like Joci Papai in 2017.
6. Belgium 1.26 - Too big odd, people should bet on this. This is, alongside Greece, the most jury friendly song of the evening, and they will pull it trought, totally unrelated with the viewers. Odd I would give is 1.15
7. Hungary 1.3 - To small odd, probably because he is returning artist. Joci could easily flop. Last time his advantage was singing in native language, now it isn't, because there are a lot of songs in this semi performed in native language as well. I see him fighting with a couple of countries to spot in final, and i would give it 1.55.
8. Estonia 1.36 - Realistic odd. We don't have to wait for the rehearsals to see stage show, like last year. Juries and televote will reply almost equaly. Chance of him getting out on Tuesday is if all borderline countries make good stuff. Not safe like Cyprus, Greece, Slovenia or Belgium but still good chances of progressing.
9. Australia 1.4 - Odd is a bit big, i would equal it with Estonia's 1.36. I see the viewers finally grabbing the phones and voting for Australia, and relatively safe qualification, 5th in a row, as well.
10.Czech Republic 1.46 - To small. I think last year success of this country also has an influence on the betting odds. I would give it around 1.6, it could easily be non-qualifier.
11. Serbia 1.6 - Guys, put money on it. It is not because it is my country, I say it because we came trought with songs that are not even close to this by quality, and trought tougher semifinals. This is one of biggest dark horses of the year. And i am confident that we are going trought, with support of juries especially and viewers. This should be around 1.35.
Seriously, don't know why odds for Serbia are so high, but better bet on it before it starts crumbling down
It is also the only real female ballad of the year.12. Poland 1.98 - Tulia could qualify, but most of the Polish diaspora are in second semi. Also, I don't see juries liking it a lot. It may qualify. Still, i would reduce odd on 1.9.
13. Finland 3.05 - Realistic odd. They probably won't go trought, it is a generic song, and nothing special happens. They play on Darude's name. Remember DJ Bobo and Gromee ?
14. San Marino 3.1 - I would reduce it to 3. He may suprise with televoters, hopefully jury won't ruin him like last time. Anyway, it has its chances, not so large but still.
15. Belarus 3.55 - I can't see it doing well with the juries, and scoring enough televotes to nivelate it. Odd is realistic
16. Georgia 5 - Probably last place, juries didn't like Iriao (what a crime it was, my second favourite last year
), and I see Oto in bottom 2 also. Realistic17. Montenegro 5.1 - I would equal odd with Georgia. Probably votes from Serbia and Slovenia combined with a couple of jury constellation points will make this not last.
Enough for now, bloodbath of semi 2 in another post
4815162342
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It's the end of march and there still isn't a single bookie offering qualification odds. Year after year they seem to get more scared of losing their money. But also on betfair there isn't a lot going on until now if you look at how much money got matched on each song.
Semi 1
Portugal 3,809€
Iceland 3,791€
Australia 2,411€
Belarus 1,810€
Hungary 1,668€
Greece 1,604€
Slovenia 1,376€
Belgium 1,229€
Czech Republic 903€
Montenegro 734€
Estonia 543€
Georgia 443€
Cyprus 409€
Finland 295€
Poland 263€
San Marino 177€
Serbia 101€
Semi 2
Denmark 7,258€
F.Y.R. Macedonia 4,494€
Norway 3,821€
Malta 3,361€
Albania 3,244€
Azerbaijan 2,042€
Austria 1,171€
Lithuania 989€
Armenia 860€
Croatia 743€
Romania 728€
Latvia 622€
Switzerland 328€
The Netherlands 239€
Ireland 174€
Russia 131€
Sweden 100€
Moldova 33€
Semi 1
Portugal 3,809€
Iceland 3,791€
Australia 2,411€
Belarus 1,810€
Hungary 1,668€
Greece 1,604€
Slovenia 1,376€
Belgium 1,229€
Czech Republic 903€
Montenegro 734€
Estonia 543€
Georgia 443€
Cyprus 409€
Finland 295€
Poland 263€
San Marino 177€
Serbia 101€
Semi 2
Denmark 7,258€
F.Y.R. Macedonia 4,494€
Norway 3,821€
Malta 3,361€
Albania 3,244€
Azerbaijan 2,042€
Austria 1,171€
Lithuania 989€
Armenia 860€
Croatia 743€
Romania 728€
Latvia 622€
Switzerland 328€
The Netherlands 239€
Ireland 174€
Russia 131€
Sweden 100€
Moldova 33€
HayashiM
Veteran
How about https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-semi-final-1 ?
That one has been up for about two weeks I believe...4815162342
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How about https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-semi-final-1 ?
Thats the market. Those odds are offered by users like you and me. Betfair takes a commission on the winnings, so they have zero risks. I miss odds from real bookies like bwin, ladbrokes, bet365, sportingbet, pinnaclesports etc
HayashiM
Veteran
Thats the market. Those odds are offered by users like you and me. Betfair takes a commission on the winnings, so they have zero risks. I miss odds from real bookies like bwin, ladbrokes, bet365, sportingbet, pinnaclesports etc
"Real bookies" just become another case of "market" once you put enough money in
4815162342
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"Real bookies" just become another case of "market" once you put enough money in
Yeah.. kind of. I was just wondering how bookies would evaluate the qualification chances.
MyHeartIsYours
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I just checked the Betfair Exchange and 2019 has to be the first year that my favourite two entries are the two favourites to win 
Netherlands 3.35
Switzerland 7.4
Russia 7.8
Italy 14
Iceland 16.5
Netherlands 3.35
Switzerland 7.4
Russia 7.8
Italy 14
Iceland 16.5
Vicious1
New member
What happened with Portugal, they're now 10th in the odds?
JonnyWest
Member
What happened with Portugal, they're now 10th in the odds?
Talent lost apparently
