ESC 2019 Betting Odds

[Preuss]

2017 and 2018 / wipes tear

Poor EQUINOX, they deserved better

 

[Laepo1]

Don´t put so much importance in betting odds. Italy 2017 was the favourite to win for months, and then it ended up 6th place.

 

[Citelis]

Yeah i remeber that in 2017 Italy lost the 1st place in odds from Portugal a few hours before the final!

 

[esc87fan]

Netherlands gained another percentage point, now it's at 26%!

 

[darkap]

The history of Eurovision betting odds says it's totally useless to talk about them before the first rehearsals

https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-2018

Let's look at it

Cyprus was 17th at the end of April
Germany was 15th in the first week of May
The best % of Austria was being 13th at the date of May 9th (if we do not consider December)
And, surprise, Israel lost the gold trophy on May 7th

Anyone from the bottom can be in the race for the Top 5 in the real show
And bookies even lost with their Cyprus horse in the last days.....

It's no better than watching at the OGAE voting

 

[Ezio]

Besides that, betting odds are kinda of fan poll, in particular of British, Irish and Spanish hardcore Eurofans. Does not tell much about the taste of casual viewers at all, fans from the rest of Europe or the juries.

OGAE poll too is just another poll with the queer eye or rather ear on the songs.

 

[4815162342]

So I was looking through the betfair qualification market and made a ranking on which country the most money has been traded so far

Semi 1
Portugal 18,691€
Iceland 14,671€
Australia 12,657€
Hungary 10,576€
Poland 7,024€
San Marino 6,831€
Greece 6,686€
Slovenia 6,352€
Belgium 6,249€
Czech Republic 6,103€
Serbia 4,611€
Estonia 4,605€
Belarus 3,392€
Cyprus 3,013€
Finland 2,374€
Georgia 1,380€
Montenegro 1,291€


Semi 2
North Macedonia 25,261€
Denmark 15,613€
Norway 10,796€
Albania 8,502€
Malta 6,347€
Azerbaijan 5,948€
Lithuania 3,155€
Romania 3,103€
Switzerland 2,992€
Armenia 2,776€
Austria 1,766€
Sweden 1,384€
Croatia 1,227€
Russia 1,210€
Ireland 970€
Latvia 911€
The Netherlands 718€
Moldova 564€

 

[Citelis]

In the betting odds for who will qualify from SF1 Greece lost the 1st place from Cyprus.
Portugal and Poland both outside top 10. Belgium in Portugal out!

 

[Pawhlen]

In the betting odds for who will qualify from SF1 Greece lost the 1st place from Cyprus.
Portugal and Poland both outside top 10. Belgium in Portugal out!

like wil need to rely on the viewers to get through to the final, maybe that´s what the oddsmakers have in their mind

 

[Citelis]

like wil need to rely on the viewers to get through to the final, maybe that´s what the oddsmakers have in their mind

I think that juries may actually like a lot Portugal's entry or at least they may give it a 9th or 10th place. Portugal is probably more jury friendly than Iceland.

 

[Zonne147]

This thread will begin to be very important tomorrow... I just hope we have big surprises (good or bad, it's all I hope )

 

[Citelis]

Looks like odds didn't like Switzerland that much.

 

[Preuss]

The only significant change I can see in the odds is Australia, but let's see what happens tomorrow when some of the big guns are rehearsing (Russia, Netherlands) and "outsiders" like Malta, Norway and Azerbaijan

 

[Ana Raquel]

i was going to bet but the minimum required is too much for me

 

[Anna1974]

Odds for the winner will remain the same till semifinals with small changes. 2019 esc is lower quality than esc 2018 and the 90% of the viewers will hear the song first time at nights of semis and final (you can see the limited excitement of the people even in the views of clips). Do not expect changes after one bad or medium or good reh.
Foureira phenomenon is happening once in 20 years.

Odds for semi-finals, top 3 and top 10 are more vivid and this make sense.

 

[Himan]

Odds for the winner will remain the same till semifinals with small changes. 2019 esc is lower quality than esc 2018 and the 90% of the viewers will hear the song first time at nights of semis and final (you can see the limited excitement of the people even in the views of clips). Do not expect changes after one bad or medium or good reh.
Foureira phenomenon is happening once in 20 years.

Odds for semi-finals, top 3 and top 10 are more vivid and this make sense.

This is not true, there are more songs that changed in the past. Like Netherlands 2014... It can happen, but it doesn't have to happen.

 

[Anna1974]

This is not true, there are more songs that changed in the past. Like Netherlands 2014... It can happen, but it doesn't have to happen.

I'm talking about dramatically changes.
This has happened only in case of Cyprus last year.
All those days fans expected such kind of changes after each one seperate reh. Huge mistake. Only Australia and Malta shorted their odds (small changes...from 1% to 2% and from 3% to 4% pr. to win)

Possible changes...only after the 2 semis. In my opinion small ones. Ofcourse from the top-15 right now in odds we will see some NQ.

 

[Himan]

I'm talking about dramatically changes.
This has happened only in case of Cyprus last year.
All those days fans expected such kind of changes after each one seperate reh. Huge mistake. Only Australia and Malta shorted their odds (small changes...from 1% to 2% and from 3% to 4% pr. to win)

Possible changes...only after the 2 semis. In my opinion small ones. Ofcourse from the top-15 right now in odds we will see some NQ.

from 18th to 3rd in odds is quite dramatic I guess... I just think it happens a bit more often than once every twenty years.

 

[Pawhlen]

I'm talking about dramatically changes.
This has happened only in case of Cyprus last year.
All those days fans expected such kind of changes after each one seperate reh. Huge mistake. Only Australia and Malta shorted their odds (small changes...from 1% to 2% and from 3% to 4% pr. to win)

Possible changes...only after the 2 semis. In my opinion small ones. Ofcourse from the top-15 right now in odds we will see some NQ.

You have right now

 

[njdevils94]

Azerbaijan by far the biggest movers over the 1st 4 days of rehearsals. Up to 4th in the odds.