ESC 2019 Betting Odds

[4815162342]

Update

Russia 3.9
Sweden 9.2
3. Iceland 14
Cyprus 16
The Netherlands 16
6. Italy 16.5
7. Portugal 26
Switzerland 26
Armenia 32
10. France 34
Greece 40
12. Norway 48
12. Spain 48
14. Slovenia 50
15. Belgium 60
15. Denmark 60
Malta 65
Austria 65
Azerbaijan 65
20. Australia 85
Poland 90
Ireland 95
Belarus 100
24. Czech Republic 120
24. Estonia 120
24. Finland 120
24. Romania 120
24. United Kingdom 120
Israel 130
30. Germany 150
30. Serbia 150
FYR Macedonia 160
Ukraine 180
33. Hungary 190
34. Lithuania 220
35. Moldova 250
36. Albania 290
37. Croatia 300
38. Georgia 360
39. Latvia 410
San Marino 410
41. Montenegro 610

 

[hijirio]

Most of the countries ranking high on the betting odds are those who haven't released the song yet. That shows how miserable the overall quality of entries chosen so far. (I'm setting you aside, )

 

[Kaz]

I don't think I've ever seen Slovenia so high in the odds

 

[ZoboCamel]

Most of the countries ranking high on the betting odds are those who haven't released the song yet. That shows how miserable the overall quality of entries chosen so far. (I'm setting you aside, )

The balance of chosen vs. non-chosen entries looks a lot better when you consider that Russia and Sweden sit in the top two virtually every single year (not just this year) before we have songs

I don't think I've ever seen Slovenia so high in the odds

Same for Switzerland too, I think! I know they were favourites back in 2007 or whatever but that's quite a while ago now.

 

[aef]

I don't think I've ever seen Slovenia so high in the odds

Same for Switzerland too, I think! I know they were favourites back in 2007 or whatever but that's quite a while ago now.

Haha definitely true for , they are basically always in the bottom 5 of the odds! If I remember correctly sneaked into the top 10 odds in 2015 before the contest but of course that changed after seeing their weak staging in the rehearsals...

 

[Preuss]

I thought we were above France

 

[BorisBubbles]

Now would be a really good moment to put money on . They're definitely going to do better than the 7th-12th place they're currently getting with the bookmakers.

 

[Realest]

Now is a good Moment to bet on Russia, before the Odds fall to 1.5-2.

 

[ZoboCamel]

Reversing my position from a couple of weeks ago, I think Sweden's looking a little long in the odds at the moment.

We've got more than half the songs already, but I'm not yet seeing any safe, mainstream contenders that can rely on good scores from both the jury and televote, and John Lundvik could fill that role if he's chosen on Saturday. Of course, safe and mainstream doesn't necessarily always translate to Eurovision wins – and he wouldn't be my personal favourite of the year – but if he's selected I think Sweden would be the first contender without any obvious drawbacks or hurdles on the path to victory.

Of the current contenders, Iceland could easily be killed off by juries, Norway has the same issue plus an underwhelming live performance, Portugal could be hard to "get", Italy's Mahmood was nearly last-place in the first-night San Remo televote, Russia hasn't released its song yet, etc. etc. John Lundvik is by no means a revolutionary vote magnet or anything, but he's competent and hard to find immediate fault with, which could push Sweden towards "default winner" status if a) they choose him, b) the aforementioned contenders can't overcome their significant hurdles and c) there aren't any surprises from other countries.

I doubt things will play out so smoothly for Sweden, and other contenders will obviously pop up from somewhere; I'm just saying that the current odds of 9, i.e. a roughly 11% chance of winning, seem a little short.

 

[aef]

The biggest joke in the odds is . This will be nowhere near top 15 haha...

 

[popavapeur]

The biggest joke in the odds is . This will be nowhere near top 15 haha...

not saying cause i'm french but as for now, I don't think being 10th is far-fetched. Not a great song but enough to be ranked between 5th-15th and I'm still waiting for that revamp. I'll put Norway and Slovenia above while The Netherlands under (depends on the song though)

 

[Citelis]

France can be on top 10 for several reasons, not just for the song!

 

[carl1]

France will get kiiled by the juries. Bilal has no charisma and he is a poor singer. And the Bilal stans, who voted him to victory, won't have much of an impact in esc lol.

 

[SwedishFailurez]

I think will fare how did last year.
I think the televoters will go nuts for Bilal because the general audience will see him as Conchita Jr. Though the lack of a good live performance and decent voice will indeed be sniped by the juries.

Maybe being placed around 14th-8th could be reasonable.

 

[njdevils94]

Now is a good Moment to bet on Russia, before the Odds fall to 1.5-2.

You'll lose your money though when they don't win.

 

[Citelis]

Yeah better bet on Sweden or Portugal!

 

[midnightsun]

France will get kiiled by the juries. Bilal has no charisma and he is a poor singer. And the Bilal stans, who voted him to victory, won't have much of an impact in esc lol.

Pardon me?!

France is my no.1 right now and I don't think he's particularly uncharismatic. I think he can sing quite well. Room for improvements of course but a good voice alone never won Eurovision, at least not in the past two decades.

Apart from that I bet a few Euros on Bilal, but I did on some other. I think I'll make around 20-30 Euros like last year. It's just fun for me.

 

[Citelis]

Well actually most people i have heard so far don't like Bilal and his song but personally i can see him doing very well! Propably France's best result for years!

 

[aef]

not saying cause i'm french but as for now, I don't think being 10th is far-fetched. Not a great song but enough to be ranked between 5th-15th and I'm still waiting for that revamp. I'll put Norway and Slovenia above while The Netherlands under (depends on the song though)

I'm sorry - and this not against as a country or would be against any country in other cases but: -weak vocals, VERY bland lyrics with wannabe empowerment message, all in all relying too much on the being-different-effect, the song itself isn't good enough either concerning melody and structure...

But let's see, maybe I'm totally wrong!

 

[aef]

France will get kiiled by the juries. Bilal has no charisma and he is a poor singer. And the Bilal stans, who voted him to victory, won't have much of an impact in esc lol.

I'm completely agreeing in every single point you made!

I think will fare how did last year.
I think the televoters will go nuts for Bilal because the general audience will see him as Conchita Jr. Though the lack of a good live performance and decent voice will indeed be sniped by the juries.

Maybe being placed around 14th-8th could be reasonable.

Nah, you can't compare this to 2018 at all... That won the mass audience due to the epicness of both the song and the staging... And there's also not so much to compare with Conchita. She had a good song that would have been top 10 without Conchita and her staging was phenomenal.

I guess both the jury and the televoters won't care about Roi...