The Draw

[Alaska49]

My main takeaway from this is that they want to distract people from Russia AND Ukraine by putting big names before Russia, after Ukraine and between both. Seriously stacked. But who are the biggest winners from this: Armenia in the same spot as Il Volo or France/Australia in the same spots as Conchita/Sanna, all three of them surrounded by entries less likely to do well?

Also I think Belgium is going to do well as a show opener. Czech Rep and Netherlands being right after is a bit weird though, surely they are going to do well?

 

[tuorem]

My reaction

1) predictable unfortunately it's a good opener but it kinda reduces their chances of success tbh.
2) welcome to the bottom 5! seriously? that's truly sh*tty to have given them two early positions the same year.
3) that's early, but it still can do well (remember Israel last year)
4) her poor vocals may sink her considering Douwe and Freddie can sing way better.
5) I'm not sure putting Hungary after Azerbaijan was the best idea, still I'm confident Freddie will get a better result than Samra.
6) Not a bad draw at all imo. Francesca still can make something out of this slot.
7) Will they stand out after Italy and before Bulgaria? Doesn't seem ideal for Hovi to me
8) Nice slot, they'll definitely stand out
9)
10) I'm not sure if it's a kind or nasty move to put them there Depends on how much Sweden will stand out maybe?
11) Expected, I said we would probably get 11th. Maybe our staging will stand out more now, but the vocals will have to be on point as there's competition afterwards.
12) I thought they would screw them again. Nice slot for Poland I think, you will definitely stand out vocally after Amir
13) Best possible slot for Australia of course However, their impact may be reduced if Michal nails his performance.
14) Not a great slot, but they will stand out after two slow songs.
15) Not a good slot imo, people may still remember how great Poland and Australia were. It could go either way.
16) Ok slot for an ok song = it'll do ok I guess
17) Doesn't look great to perform right before Russia I hope it won't harm them too much.
18) Decent slot, Russia is still in the competition.
19) Will definitely get lost. They already got 19th in 2014, did they subscribe to that number?
20) Almost the same position as last year. They'll stand out after Spain, but might be forgotten because of who comes next Not good for them.
21) Ideal slot, will stand out between two pop songs. Cross my fingers
22) I think she'll bomb worst slot ever between Ukraine and Georgia! They already got 22nd in 2014... do they use the same patterns? it's annoying!
23) will stand out no matter what, it's not too late either. Perfect for them and far away from Cyprus. Good.
24) will stand out too despite Georgia performing before.
25) one word: screwed! :? Bottom 5 awaits, I don't think they'll survive that Austria-Armenia sandwich.
26) Didn't expect them to be last, I don't think they'll win anyway.

 

[Jacketh]

I agree with you about Joe and Jake [MENTION=9195]tuorem[/MENTION], I'd rather them be last with their type of song.

 

[GWTW1939]

Your analysis is fine, except you are focusing way too much on the charts.

Perhaps but in the past they've given VERY good indication of how things play out when it comes to the televote

And in regards to Armenia just because Il Volo won televoting from the last spot last year means nothing. They were doing fantastic on iTunes leading up to the competition, something which Iveta is not despite the raves. They were also one of the most hyped acts. Remember last year when the draw came out everybody said they were crushed because it was so late in the show and even the fans were tired by then and not to mention multiple songs have flopped from that spot as well. I don't see Armenia flopping but I certainly don't see it doing as well as everybody claims.

 

[tuorem]

And in regards to Armenia just because Il Volo won televoting from the last spot last year means nothing. They were doing fantastic on iTunes leading up to the competition, something which Iveta is not despite the raves. They were also one of the most hyped acts. Remember last year when the draw came out everybody said they were crushed because it was so late in the show and even the fans were tired by then and not to mention multiple songs have flopped from that spot as well. I don't see Armenia flopping but I certainly don't see it doing as well as everybody claims.

I agree about Armenia, last place is not really the ultimate place to be. Ireland flopped so hard in 2013, the UK barely made an impression in 2014... Performance-wise, we'll definitely end the night on a high note, but that's not necessarily a super present for Iveta.

 

[QwaarJet]

Perhaps but in the past they've given VERY good indication of how things play out when it comes to the televote

And in regards to Armenia just because Il Volo won televoting from the last spot last year means nothing. They were doing fantastic on iTunes leading up to the competition, something which Iveta is not despite the raves. They were also one of the most hyped acts. Remember last year when the draw came out everybody said they were crushed because it was so late in the show and even the fans were tired by then and not to mention multiple songs have flopped from that spot as well. I don't see Armenia flopping but I certainly don't see it doing as well as everybody claims.

The charts work in certain years, but with no massive charting hits (like this year, 2014 and 2013) it may struggle. Armenia is a one-shot song. Designed to win a contest and then never seen again. More in a Conchita or Emmelie mould than Mans or Loreen.

I see your viewpoint though, and of course you may be spot on.

One thing is for sure, this the most unpredictable build-up in years. I just don't know what to think.

 

[tuorem]

To sum up, I think that got the worst positions, not far away may not be in good shape.

The lucky ones are (but the last three would have stood out pretty much anywhere).

Ok, is good too, we've got two slow songs before and after us.

 

[GWTW1939]

I agree about Armenia, last place is not really the ultimate place to be. Ireland flopped so hard in 2013, the UK barely made an impression in 2014... Performance-wise, we'll definitely end the night on a high note, but that's not necessarily a super present for Iveta.

It's weird that despite all the hype and performance raves that has been happening this past week (some even claiming she definitely won the jury and perhaps the semi ) and being top 6 in the betting (briefly top 4 after the semi) it has made ZERO impact on iTunes. It currently ranks #41 in Armenia but no where else. It's not a chart friendly song but you would think it would still make more waves if it was that big a favorite and the performance that amazing. Even Jamala, who's song isn't chart friendly either, is doing decent business.

I honestly don't know what to think about it at the moment. Middle or bottom top 10 mainly on the strength of a jury I guess

 

[Alaska49]

it's not just about the positions themselves though it's about the countries around you

ryan dolan was already an obvious right-side-of-the-scoreboard entry and came after a deluge of top 10 entries (none of them the winner!) and georgia; molly was probably never as big of a deal as we fans wanted to believe and was probably placed there to play second fiddle to netherlands. polina and il volo, on the other hand, were obvious big dogs placed at the end after a few low tier entries, which is similar to iveta's scenario

running order is not the be all end all and a true winner can win from any position, but they have some effect no matter how small and it feels like producers want to capitalize on it

 

[HSV1887]

Itunes charts can be a very tricky thing. Albania, Armenia and Romania bombed badly on Itunes last year but they did quite well in the televote whereas countries like Germany, Spain and Austria did very well on Itunes but flopped at the contest. That being said, as much as I am rooting for Iveta, I don't think she's going to win, anyway. Her song simply isn't accessible enough for that to happen, IMO. She will probably come in around 10th in the televote and do very well with the jury, which should be good enough to secure at least a top 8 finish for her.

 

[esc87fan]

I'm forcing myself to go cold turkey tomorrow and not follow the dress rehearsals. I think 11th is a good draw for France, an up-tempo song in between two slow-ish ballads as tuorem said (I figured that Amir would get the second part of the first half)

 

[Trece]

What a predictable draw Belgium opens, Australia 13th (once they got 1st half it was obvious), russia 18th (poor Croatia and Spain) abd a fave closes the show. I am happy for France getting 11th, hope they fix all mistakes and use this opportunity, but angry much more because of killing draw for

 

[GWTW1939]

Bjorkman gave Sergey the same spot he gave Emmelie de Forest in 2013 He also put Jamala one spot below Zalata

 

[Terence]

are dead
Of course have the latest possible slot. Of course!

have gone from closing to opening the show.

 

[darkap]

Australia winning is more and more possible now.
Russia got a nice spot too, same for France.

 

[Chorizo]

Poor Czechia.

They clearly favor Australia and France.

I think Armenia won semi 1.

They don't want Russia to win. They treated it favorably in the semi, so they can give it a worse draw now.

Ukraine didn't get the best draw either, so did Australia win semi 2?

 

[Salmon]

I'm okay with this draw, even with getting the latest spot. All in all, this order seems very balanced to me, as hand-picked draws should be.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

I'm so happy the best song of the night got the #13!

 

[Andalublue]

Armenia last

Surprise win pls

No one has won from last in the running order since 1989. Do you think it's a good place to be drawn? I think that if you look at the stats the best place to be drawn is somewhere between 15 and 20 in the running order.

 

[aef]

First thoughts:

*poor ! (SVT really seems to hate them although I guess the dreaded spot after in the semi final might even helped them to qualify)
*It seems like did really well in the semi final - It might be a surprise winner
*really good draw for - right after 4 serious songs and especially after !
* is #1 as i expected
* and are between 10 and 13 as I expected
* only on 18!
*I thought would get the dreaded #2 spot because of the obvious Björkman hate for