Portugal PORTUGAL 2025 - Napa - Deslocado

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[MAD20]

Although I'm into Xico Gaiato or Peculiar for Eurovision, I must say 'Lisboa' is a piece of art. I'm obsessed with that song, and also with 'Sobre Nós'. This years FdC is probably my fave NF of the season so far.

 

[goncalovieira]

About his flying moment... it is unlikely guys. RTPs studio 1 is not tall enough to support a good effect. Apart from we are talking about Festival da Canção... he just said that we will have something new for FdC. We never had special effects in any performance. So, it is not like Melodifestivalen. Must be a simple prop.

 

[goncalovieira]

As someone in the betting circles (and due a 5-figure payout if Portugal wins), it's because of Josh. Genuine ESC contender

This. And when you see the current line up for ESC... it is crazy. If he manages to give us a good package next week, it will be hard to stop him.

 

[Decayingbooks]

For me Josh potential victory in FdC is even more obvious than Iolanda victory last year.

People keep saying that but last year there where multiple things pointing to her victory, most plays on both spotify and youtube, most likes and most comments in her lyric video(engagement) and at the end João Borsch, thanks to regional support and engaging with his fan base, he won the televote.
I had to check the numbers I posted last year - here- and a day before semi1 her plays on youtube where 144k and on spotify it was 56k. The 4thmost played video on youtube, Josh's video, is currently at 144k and the forth most played song on spotify, Henka's song, is a 65k. Also comments and likes are higher in some of the main players this year and I don't remmember if the songs last year made it into the viral chart before the the semi started like this year...

Things aren't clear:

- Napa are winning the numbers game, most plays on spotify, #1 on Viral Songs chart, the only nf song in the Top Songs Chart, at #52, most growth in youtube the past month(they will become the second most played video on youtube at the end of the day) and second most liked video, they also went viral on tiktok and they will have regional support;

- Fernando Daniel has the most played video on youtube, but its growth is at the same level of Josh or Henka's, his song is third most played on spotify, he is kinda flopping but he has a gigantic fandom that could give him massive support at the eleventh hour and he could also get a support from the casual viewer;

- Josh, one of the 2 favorites of the portuguese escfandom, he has a very, let's say, dedicated fandom that will vote for him and he could also get support from the casual viewer. His video is be the third with more plays on youtube by the end of next week and his song is the second with most plays on spotify and he is currently #6 on the Viral Songs chart;

- Henka, the other favorite of the portuguese escfandom, things have slowed down a bit for her in the past weeks, she needs to revitalize the exciment of her fandom witht her live performance. She's currently #3 in the Viral Songs chart and her video is currently the second one with most plays, it will drop to fourth place by next week, but it is the most liked and commented video of the lineup. I aware that people have shared her video on groups of metalcore and voting in the nf final starts the tuesday after semi2, people don't have to watch the show to vote, so I do wonder if there will be some support from these demographics or not...

How the judges will vote is another talk, but unlike last year, I have no certainty how the televote will swing.

This. And when you see the current line up for ESC... it is crazy. If he manages to give us a good package next week, it will be hard to stop him.

I have to agree, the current lineup is very loud, very high energy and very in your face, but the nf season isn't over and there are still songs to be released. Netherlands and Cyprus are two countries that I think that could compete directly with Josh, particularly Cyprus, with Elsie Bay has being one of the composers of their song and all...

 

[Decayingbooks]

 

[goncalovieira]

People keep saying that but last year there where multiple things pointing to her victory, most plays on both spotify and youtube, most likes and most comments in her lyric video(engagement) and at the end João Borsch, thanks to regional support and engaging with his fan base, he won the televote.
I had to check the numbers I posted last year - here- and a day before semi1 her plays on youtube where 144k and on spotify it was 56k. The 4thmost played video on youtube, Josh's video, is currently at 144k and the forth most played song on spotify, Henka's song, is a 65k. Also comments and likes are higher in some of the main players this year and I don't remmember if the songs last year made it into the viral chart before the the semi started like this year...

Things aren't clear:

- Napa are winning the numbers game, most plays on spotify, #1 on Viral Songs chart, the only nf song in the Top Songs Chart, at #52, most growth in youtube the past month(they will become the second most played video on youtube at the end of the day) and second most liked video, they also went viral on tiktok and they will have regional support;

- Fernando Daniel has the most played video on youtube, but its growth is at the same level of Josh or Henka's, his song is third most played on spotify, he is kinda flopping but he has a gigantic fandom that could give him massive support at the eleventh hour and he could also get a support from the casual viewer;

- Josh, one of the 2 favorites of the portuguese escfandom, he has a very, let's say, dedicated fandom that will vote for him and he could also get support from the casual viewer. His video is be the third with more plays on youtube by the end of next week and his song is the second with most plays on spotify and he is currently #6 on the Viral Songs chart;

- Henka, the other favorite of the portuguese escfandom, things have slowed down a bit for her in the past weeks, she needs to revitalize the exciment of her fandom witht her live performance. She's currently #3 in the Viral Songs chart and her video is currently the second one with most plays, it will drop to fourth place by next week, but it is the most liked and commented video of the lineup. I aware that people have shared her video on groups of metalcore and voting in the nf final starts the tuesday after semi2, people don't have to watch the show to vote, so I do wonder if there will be some support from these demographics or not...

How the judges will vote is another talk, but unlike last year, I have no certainty how the televote will swing.


I have to agree, the current lineup is very loud, very high energy and very in your face, but the nf season isn't over and there are still songs to be released. Netherlands and Cyprus are two countries that I think that could compete directly with Josh, particularly Cyprus, with Elsie Bay has being one of the composers of their song and all...

You are right about non clear evidences about the winner. However, televoting in FdC is either low or big in terms of number of votes. The last non clear year we had was 2021. And RTP received more than 70k votes. Carolina Deslandes was 1st in the juries and 3rd in televote. It is not official, but I know that the difference between the top 3 was minimal. Not even hundred votes.
From my point of view and taking past experiences how RTP deals with running orders, seems that they have Josh and Fernando Daniel as main favorites and Henka/Peculiar as dark horses. But this is a personal opinion.
About other eurovision candidates, so far there is just a male ballad (quite inofensive) and a huge lack of classic songs. So, if they choose Josh, they must prepare the conversations with Ministery of Culture. Just to make sure Carla Bugalhoo can say yes to EBU board on may 16th after the jury show

 

[goncalovieira]

People keep saying that but last year there where multiple things pointing to her victory, most plays on both spotify and youtube, most likes and most comments in her lyric video(engagement) and at the end João Borsch, thanks to regional support and engaging with his fan base, he won the televote.
I had to check the numbers I posted last year - here- and a day before semi1 her plays on youtube where 144k and on spotify it was 56k. The 4thmost played video on youtube, Josh's video, is currently at 144k and the forth most played song on spotify, Henka's song, is a 65k. Also comments and likes are higher in some of the main players this year and I don't remmember if the songs last year made it into the viral chart before the the semi started like this year...

Things aren't clear:

- Napa are winning the numbers game, most plays on spotify, #1 on Viral Songs chart, the only nf song in the Top Songs Chart, at #52, most growth in youtube the past month(they will become the second most played video on youtube at the end of the day) and second most liked video, they also went viral on tiktok and they will have regional support;

- Fernando Daniel has the most played video on youtube, but its growth is at the same level of Josh or Henka's, his song is third most played on spotify, he is kinda flopping but he has a gigantic fandom that could give him massive support at the eleventh hour and he could also get a support from the casual viewer;

- Josh, one of the 2 favorites of the portuguese escfandom, he has a very, let's say, dedicated fandom that will vote for him and he could also get support from the casual viewer. His video is be the third with more plays on youtube by the end of next week and his song is the second with most plays on spotify and he is currently #6 on the Viral Songs chart;

- Henka, the other favorite of the portuguese escfandom, things have slowed down a bit for her in the past weeks, she needs to revitalize the exciment of her fandom witht her live performance. She's currently #3 in the Viral Songs chart and her video is currently the second one with most plays, it will drop to fourth place by next week, but it is the most liked and commented video of the lineup. I aware that people have shared her video on groups of metalcore and voting in the nf final starts the tuesday after semi2, people don't have to watch the show to vote, so I do wonder if there will be some support from these demographics or not...

How the judges will vote is another talk, but unlike last year, I have no certainty how the televote will swing.


I have to agree, the current lineup is very loud, very high energy and very in your face, but the nf season isn't over and there are still songs to be released. Netherlands and Cyprus are two countries that I think that could compete directly with Josh, particularly Cyprus, with Elsie Bay has being one of the composers of their song and all...

You are right about non clear evidences about the winner. However, televoting in FdC is either low or big in terms of number of votes. The last non clear year we had was 2021. And RTP received more than 70k votes. Carolina Deslandes was 1st in the juries and 3rd in televote. It is not official, but I know that the difference between the top 3 was minimal. Not even hundred votes.
From my point of view and taking past experiences how RTP deals with running orders, seems that they have Josh and Fernando Daniel as main favorites and Henka/Peculiar as dark horses. But this is a personal opinion.
About other eurovision candidates, so far there is just a male ballad (quite inofensive) and a huge lack of classic songs. So, if they choose Josh, they must prepare the conversations with Ministery of Culture. Just to make sure Carla Bugalhoo can say yes to EBU board on may 16th after the jury show

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

Still team Adamastor all the way. Ecstatic banger that feels nothing like we sent and still unmistakably ours. Getting obsessed with Ai Senhor! lately. The medieval arrangements and the intensity during the last minute are triumphant.

Nothing wrong with Josh but i'd like to take a break from our melancholic balladry reputation (a song named Tristeza...says it all). Henka is sanitized rock music that only got this much attention for the curiosity factor. In the greater scheme of things, i have serious doubts it'd be as successful as some idealize in the eurovision.

 

[goncalovieira]

For the first time ever after the re-launch, an album from Festival da Canção is charting before the competition begins.
#55 on CD-ROM sales
#39 on streaming platforms.

 

[goncalovieira]

If Josh delivers and takes advantage of this year's lineup... we may be favorites to win the whole thing. It is crazy and a bit scary as well.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner (Portugal just reached #7 in the odds)

 

[nunaney]

Josh could sweep the ESC jury vote at this rate (assuming his live is good)

 

[Decayingbooks]

If Josh delivers and takes advantage of this year's lineup... we may be favorites to win the whole thing. It is crazy and a bit scary as well.

https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner (Portugal just reached #7 in the odds)

Dude...
You're just cherry picking information that reinforses your biases and beliefs at this point...
Let's just stick to the eurovisionworld odds ok?
Portugal is #9 and that's thanks to Italy that has been falling since Sanremo ended

 

[goncalovieira]

Dude...
You're just cherry picking information that reinforses your biases and beliefs at this point...
Let's just stick to the eurovisionworld odds ok?
Portugal is #9 and that's thanks to Italy that has been falling since Sanremo ended

Not really. Oddschecker is the main platform for the compilation of odds houses. So, Portugal is on #7 on the main agregator. And that is it.

 

[goncalovieira]

Rehearsals start tomorrow.

 

[Flynn Berry]

I generally don't comment on this forum but I think I have to give my perspective on Portugal's growth in odds, I'm a regular bettor in bookmakers (mostly in sports but also in eurovision), in the circle of bettors some of us are believing in the song "Tristeza" to win this edition of Eurovision.
This is clear because the bets are predictions, and whoever is faster and more accurate in their bets wins more money, this is a market and there is a large flow of bets on Josh because right now the pre-performance at festival of Portugal is the ideal time to bet because if the performance is good the odds will be less profitable for the bettor, I bet on "bet stars" and it was 21/1 at the time I did it, I bet 50€ and if Portugal eventually wins eurovision I will win 1050€, after semi1 performance in FdC if it goes well the odds will drop and it will be less profitable for me specifically, this is the ideal time to bet and those who are in betting circles know this, in short Portugal should move up more positions until Saturday. Hope It helps

 

[gigi_copp3]

This Josh song is literally the first great thing I've heard this year. I love Balorda nostalgia and most Sanremo songs, but there was no Eurovision winner. Maybe this Tristeza is the one.

 

[Decayingbooks]

 

[lavieenrose]

I still really want Lisboa to pull off the miracle but Tristeza would be a really nice winner. I love how unapologetically dated it sounds.

 

[goncalovieira]

Iolanda's choreographer is working with Josh.
They posted a little video story on Instagram.
He will be alone on stage and there is a whole choreography. In my view, it will be all about camera angles and intimacy. And looks like he is holding a piece of metal while singing (??). It seems like they are bringing a prop.

 

[lacrymea]

Iolanda's choreographer is working with Josh.
They posted a little video story on Instagram.
He will be alone on stage and there is a whole choreography. In my view, it will be all about camera angles and intimacy. And looks like he is holding a piece of metal while singing (??). It seems like they are bringing a prop.

It looks like a second hand? I don't know what's going on xD