That it's not a hit, has indeed nothing to do with her or the song - it's all about the national selection drama. People always have in mind, that she only became second and because of that bad atmosphere no one places bets on her ...that sucks. Still, she has way better chances in the contest itself then Cascada or Elaiza had. While "Glorious" was a bit too mainstream and had a bad draw, "Is it right" wasn't mainstream/modern enough and had by far the worst draw last year... first half, between Conchita and Sanna.
"Black smoke" has a good balance here... It's modern and radio friendly but at the same time her vocals add something special and memorable. If we finally get a good starting position again, she'll finish way better then most of the people believe by now.
For now a place between 15 and 10 seems legit for me - depending on the performance.
By the way, "Black smoke" is currently the 8th most streamed Eurovision 2015 song on Spotify