Who will qualify from Semi Final 2

[Mimoliin]

My final guess:

 

[Dessi]

I literally have no idea who will qualify. My prediction, which will probably be very wrong:

Mongolia? Yeah that will probably be very wrong.

 

[Mimoliin]

I literally have no idea who will qualify. My prediction, which will probably be very wrong:

Oooh please gief Mongolia in the final! -O-

ETA: You're too quick to edit! :twisted:

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

I guess it will be:

Azerbaijan
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Latvia
Lithuania
Malta
Norway
Slovenia
Sweden

 

[lavieenrose]

Definitely
1. Sweden
2. Azerbaijan
Probably
3. Slovenia
4. Norway
5. Latvia
Maybe
6. Cyprus
7. Czech Republic (after tonight)
8. Poland
9. Iceland
10. Israel
11. Lithuania
12. Montenegro
Probably Not
13. Malta
14. Switzerland
15. Portugal
16. Ireland
17. San Marino

 

[Galandar]

I want Slovenia, Czech Republic, Sweden and my country Azerbaijan to qualify. All the rest I don't care so much, however, Norway, Latvia and Israel would deserve qualification too. Among the rest Iceland and San-Marino don't deserve qualification at all.

 

[i anixi]

Sweden He would have to choke and miss 3 lines not to qualify
Slovenia just too fresh to smash
Azerbaijan good quality ballad and Azerbaijan always seems to make it -staging sure to match.
Norway will be noticed no matter what
Montenegro Balkan ballads always find a way
Latvia will stand out and impress at first listening
Cyprus Juries love this sort, mummies and grannies will give them extra help
Lithuania One kiss... and enough people won't let it miss
Iceland Never ending choruses and barefoot girls usually make it
Ireland Acquired taste, but if the juries don't help it through, I'll know for sure this contest doesn't need them.

Czech Republic I don't believe 3 duets can get through
Israel Half erased by Mans, killed off by juries
Malta Won't survive the fight with Latvia later in the draw
Switzerland It's been listened too many times before.
Poland Weak song, weaker vocals.
Portugal Nobody liked it up till now, nobody will.
San Marino Joke entries stopped doing well for some time now.

Prediction after rehearsals

Decreasing order of probability:

Sweden He isn't choking or missing his lines, apparently.
Slovenia Sounding and looking great as ever.
Norway Looking and sounding misleadingly haunting. Coming together anyway.

Latvia Doing everything and going everywhere it had previously promised
Montenegro Balkan ballad performance by numbers, it is as beautiful as it is professional.
Cyprus Yes, Tom Dice strikes again.
Azerbaijan Messed it up a litle, but others with poorer songs have messed them up a lot more.

Israel managed to deliver the fun vibe.

Switzerland One of the girls in black should do it, this one seems to be the more polished of them.
Czech Republic It's a wild guess, but their vocals are fantastic.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lithuania Chemistry gets you far but you shouldn't over do it and crying out concert like is never a good idea. Song was always a dog's bark anyway.
Malta Not giving her best, stagers did not give their best.
Ireland Too nervous and inexperienced to connect, sadly.
Poland One is so sorry for everything, should that be enough? Should pimp slot? Vocals still weak, as is song.
Iceland Should barefoot off key girls do it? It's only a chorus after all.
Portugal It was doomed from day one.
San Marino Wrong song at the wrong time with the wrong singers. Go away.

 

[esc87fan]

I've thought about it the last couple of days, and even though there are some songs I don't like particularly my picks are as follows (in no particular order):

 

[ParadiseES]

My last prediction is:










(it's in danger though)

I think (and hope) is out. has chances and I'm afraid might too after all the overhype in the last days, but I hope Malta takes Poland's spot and we get rid of the sleeping pills.
I'd love to see and qualifying but I'm afraid they're hopeless.

 

[QwaarJet]

The original consensus was that this was the easier semi to predict. After the jury rehearsal, that theory has been blown out of the water. This is going to be tough.

Guaranteed qualifiers :

Norway
Israel
Latvia
Azerbaijan
Sweden
Slovenia

4 spots left.

Borderline :

Lithuania
Ireland
Montenegro
Malta
Czech Republic
Cyprus
Poland

Out :

San Marino
Portugal
Iceland (botched the jury rehearsal)
Switzerland (could come to regret this, but coming after Sweden I expect this to be totally forgotten.)

So out of the borderlines...

Lithuania have a bad draw but a catchy song and same-sex kissing will make it memorable, despite opening the show
Ireland have the vocals and staging, but the song will struggle for televotes
Montenegro have no allies and the song never really reaches a higher level, unlike most other Balkan ballads, however they have a great singer
Malta have a good qualification record, but had a terrible jury show.
Czechs have a song on paper that should qualify. Only issues is potential cheesiness and the complete lack of any televote
Cyprus have a charismatic performer, who can connect with the audience and has good vocals, but the song is dull.
Poland have a quality song that is a little dull, but have a good vocalist and a genuine sympathy vote, unlike Finland

My final 10 is :

Lithuania
Montenegro
Norway
Israel
Latvia
Azerbaijan
Sweden
Cyprus
Slovenia
Poland

I got 9/10 last time, I'll be happy with 8/10 this time, might be less than that.

 

[Uto]

Lithuania

No competition in their genre basically. Ridiculously good looking performers. But they have a difficult position, although the first slot is actually kind of okay for them as they don't run into the heavy hitters. There's isn't much to go on to vote them down, but they don't have a lot of friends and the song is just a bit weak. Still, I say:

Q


Ireland

It's a pretty number, but it's rather boring. The staging doesn't seem to have them the upper hand, their position is pretty bad. I fear that people will generally like this, but won't vote for it. In the end I say:

NQ

San Marino

Yeah....

NQ

Montenegro

This was awesome in Amsterdam, this has been consistently awesome during the rehearsals and I think that Balkanese diaspora will be likely to give it some love. Position is okay between San Marino and Malta. Staging seemed okay. They lack friends, but I think they have enough in this.

Q

Malta

I don't know. The song is a bit weak, the staging doesn't quite do it, the position is really kind of meh since Norway will blow it straight out of the water. That said, it does tick boxes. I don't want to bet against them, but I think:

NQ

Norway

Good song, good staging, good position, enough friends, nothing going against them. Clearly:

Q

Portugal

This is just bad. Song is weak, staging is weak, blah.

NQ

Czechia

Boring song, staging doesn't really add much to it, position isn't something I would be happy with either. I mean after this you'll have Israel with a pretty entertaining up-tempo song. This is just going to be boring and forgettable.

NQ

Israel

Lack of up-tempo songs makes this stand out and even though it's ridiculous you can't deny that it's good fun. They also seem to have the gay vote going for them based on the reaction in Amsterdam. Should find their way into the final I think.

Q

Latvia

Are you kidding me? Juries are all over this and if I could vote I'd vote for this anytime. The outstanding alternative entry this year.

Q

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan... If they won't go through on quality, they will go through on Malta and San Marino.

Q

Iceland

Song is weak but cute, she sings okayish, the act is okayish. Position is pretty bad. There are a lot of reasons to say they won't progress, and having Sweden going right after is a big nail in the coffin I'd say. Then again, there is no song around that caters to the younger viewers quite like this one does and they do seem to have quite some voting power. I wouldn't bet on Iceland, it's too iffy, but I have to say anything I'd say:

Q

Sweden

Lol

Q

Switzerland

Right after Sweden we get this?

NQ

Cyprus

Staging keeps it intimate, makes it charming. Works. I don't like the song, I think it's very unoriginal and I don't 'feel' it, but people with experience are backing this heavily. I think they have a point. It is charming and it is the outstanding 'silent' song today.

Q


Slovenia

I don't want to touch it. The staging is just bad, the song isn't half as good as people are saying and it all kind of just plods along. I have severe doubts about this one and I think they are in serious trouble. But:

Q

Poland

Yeah this just isn't very good. Song is slightly very slow, pretty boring, weak verses, staging doesn't really add much and the accents are just irritating. It's a 'bridge', not a 'breedge' etc. I'm not seeing this getting into the final.

NQ

 

[revallsay]

San Marino

Yeah....

NQ


Azerbaijan




Sweden

Lol

Q

Switzerland

Right after Sweden we get this?

NQ


Poland

It's a 'bridge', not a 'breedge' etc.

NQ

I have to admit I am a big fan of your explanation why songs should/shouldn't qualify. Keep up the good work xgood

 

[kengaIME]

Here are my predictions



Sweden
Slovenia
Montenegro
Latvia
Azerbaijan
Norway
Israel
Switzerland
Cyprus
Czech Republic

_______________________


Lithuania
Malta
Ireland
Iceland
Poland
Portugal
San Marino

 

[Joyride]

no particular order

qualifying

Azerbaijan
Slovenia
Sweden
Montenegro
Norway
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Israel
Czech Republic

not qualifying

Cyprus
Iceland
Ireland
Malta
Portugal
San Marino
Switzerland

 

[ParadiseES]

This semifinal will be tough. I want to qualify:

LITHUANIA, MONTENEGRO, MALTA, PORTUGAL, CZECH REPUBLIC, ISRAEL, LATVIA, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, SLOVENIA.

I could live with NORWAY and AZERBAIJAN (and they will qualify despite they're not my cup of tea).

I don't want in the final but I could survive if they qualified: IRELAND or POLAND.

I really don't want SAN MARINO, ICELAND and CYPRUS in the final.


This means I will lose at least 2-3 of my top-10 in this semi, because Norway and Azerbaijan will qualify no matter how, and Poland, Cyprus or Iceland could do it as well :?

 

[ParadiseES]

What I think:

Already in the final ->

Then, about the rest is the one with the most possibilities.

I think has nice chances after the great rehearsal and could at least be saved by the juries. is a 50/50 more or less. has all the friends voting in this semifinal, but she had pretty bad rehearsals and the song is quite meh, so it's in real danger. is in danger too for the same reasons and also because it's in a sandwich between stronger songs.

did pretty well in the jury vote, I'm sure. Everything will depend if they can avoid a disastre in the televoting to pass through.

is bottom material, but for some random reason it's getting fans in the last days. The draw is extremely good and they could do a Lithuania 2011/Portugal 2010/Netherlands 2004, an entry that do quite well in the semi, but fails big time in the final. I'm still hopeful we don't have to listen to this boredom again

and are almost hopeless, but I would not rule them out. Portugal's song could be sort of jury friendly and if their televoting result is not too bad they have some chances. The Swiss song doesn't have a bad draw and it's a song that can impress in the first listening if they deliver it well. Considering this is a very close semifinal, makes it even more possible.

.... well, if they qualify or even get more than the last place we should leave this planet as soon as possible, cause something like that would mean something really bad is happening to us.

 

[JamieBrown]

Final prediction before the show starts



No place for again

 

[Nicholas123]

 

[Nikkita]

[MENTION=11820]Nikkita[/MENTION] Do you think Slovenia would fail to qualify? We know they're never guaranteed to get through but it seems they don't have any major obstacle standing in their way

At first i really liked Slovenian song but i can't decide right now, also i started to not like the song. However, my final list before the semi would be:
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Sweden
Malta
Israel
Switzerland
Iceland
Norway
Czech Republic
Ireland or Slovenia (probably Ireland because Slovenia has less diaspora in this semifinal meanwhile Ireland can have 12's from Malta and UK)

 

[blue00eyes]

(...) accents are just irritating. It's a 'bridge', not a 'breedge' etc.

Well, I want to hear you speaking Polish