Who will qualify from Semi Final 1

[megzypegzy999]

I think -
Estonia - definite
Belgium - definite
Serbia - probably although its not in my top 10
Denmark - I think people will vote for it
Belarus - I just have a feeling they will qualify
Greece - don't like it but I think it will qualify
Romania - don't like it but I think it will qualify
Russia - not my favourite but it will definitely qualify
Netherlands - it might qualify
Armenia - I have a feeling it will qualify

I will be totally wrong to be honest

 

[NikkiBoy]

I think -
Estonia - definite
Belgium - definite
Serbia - probably although its not in my top 10
Denmark - I think people will vote for it
Belarus - I just have a feeling they will qualify
Greece - don't like it but I think it will qualify
Romania - don't like it but I think it will qualify
Russia - not my favourite but it will definitely qualify
Netherlands - it might qualify
Armenia - I have a feeling it will qualify

I will be totally wrong to be honest

Albania

 

[megzypegzy999]

Albania

Albania could take the Netherlands or Armenia's place again it all depends on the night, too early to say.

 

[GRE]

A recap with the running order !

 

[Simon87]

After Russia I can have a long toalet break

 

[GRE]

After Russia I can have a long toalet break

Not too much please.

 

[Kairit]

(In the order in which they perform) and I don't know about which one of or makes it. Depends on the performance. Maybe I'll make up my mind later or until we see the rehearsals.

I still feel like there's a chance of qualifying as I think the catchiness will appeal to first-second-third time listeners. may honestly stand out in it's mellowness and sweetness aannd may qualify if people are up for the fun and a powerful voice, but the juries may drown it. And I would say Greece will qualify and there's a pretty big chance I guess since they always qualify, but it's definetly not among the better and memorable ones and right now I'm feeling Estonia and Finland will just drown it out, so I left it out. I also think could perhaps end up being a borderline qualifier, but I left it out of this list for now as well. I feel like could be a surprise non-qualifier (I guess?), but I still left it in, because people seem to love it a lot and it has a pretty good place in the running order. I don't quite think it has enough to stand out though, but welp.

This is hard. .. Last year I got 8/10 correct in the first semi and 9/10 in the second one. I don't want to fail this time since I did pretty good last year.

Edit: Okay you know what I'm just gonna go with

 

[NemesisNick]

Well I haven't heard any of the songs in either semi-final yet, so can't make a prediction. However the running order of the semi-finals has now been decided.

The running order for semi-final 1 is: Moldova, Armenia, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Estonia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, Belarus, Russia, Denmark, Albania, Romania, Georgia.

Will the running order affect which ten countries go through? Wouldn't the occurrence of a thrash metal song, or an up-beat dance-along (adult kids' Boogie Beebies big video) immediately after a sombre ballad (or vice versa) make one stand out above the other and influence whether or not one or the other goes through?

 

[Lupus]

My hopefuls, in alphabetical order (although the signature will give some clues as to the actual order...) Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Denmark, Georgia, Hungary, Macedonia, Netherlands, Romania, Serbia. Will they? Haven't a clue!

 

[GRE]

Last ticket will be one of

 

[aletem]

For me, sure qualifiers are:

Russia
Georgia
Armenia
---- that's it

Then it would be with 85% chance:
Belgium - still doubting that the song has a full-on appeal
Romania - good draw and they qualified with that shit in 2013..I'm giving it a 20% chance to be Bergendahlized tho.
Estonia - my fave from this semi, so it may flop Happened before, not gonna lie and they aren't convincing live very well..
Albania - solid song and a good draw coming after Denmark, so it has 75-85% chance to go through.

The rest is a big blob of things waiting to happen:
Denmark - well if one Nordic would advance, I think this would be the one..but it's a hit or miss for me
Belarus - improved from the original and with a good presentation it would stick between Hungary and Russia. I give them more chance than the ones bellow..
Serbia - diaspora won't vote for these type of songs (check 2011 and 2013), tho she can rely on her voice and maybe people will like her English version?? I'm not sure.
Netherlands - another favourite of mine that has a likelier chance to fail than advance. I think the song is very catchy and people might remember that. It also helps being before Finland and somewhat after Moldova in that group.
Greece - it's Bergendahl waiting to happen. I personally think it's their weakest song since 2003 and a song that can really get lost (and was heard many times and in catchier and better performances). Still has a shot of going through, but performing after the first commercial break won't help her much (even if it is after Finland).
Macedonia - not a very televoting friendly semi for them, so their chances are the weakest ones in this blob. Will have to rely on jury support + this needs a great staging to have a chance. If the staging is memorable and not too complicated, it can go through.

Somewhat hopeful:
Finland - if people would really vote for them (which I kinda doubt), then they will go through.

Not happening:
Hungary - Is just too off and too depressing at times. I don't expect them to do well (a wayy better ballad in 2008 ended last in the semi, so not giving this one much hope)
Moldova - probably last or next to last with the juries. Shouldn't do well with the televotes. Worst vocal of the semi by far!

 

[SRBIJA]

 

[GRE]

Serbia in, Romania out?

 

[Mlyn]

Romania is a definite qualifier for me, Serbia not.

I also think that Armenia and Greece will struggle, although they have each other and their diaspora in Belgium and Netherlands. But there's still juries and these songs are just meh.

If only Eastern countries qualify from that semi, I'd be upset. But the political power is obvious here. If I had a say, I would return this huge pile of cheese from Russia back home, from Vienna with love. Most Eastern European songs in Semi 1 are big flops for me.

The worst case would be Moldova qualifying.

The allocating pots are a complete waste of effort. Digame should make sure that some countries shall never be in the same semi, like Russia and Belarus, Greece and Cyprus, Greece and Armenia, Romania and Moldova, Denmark and Iceland, Denmark and Sweden, Montenegro and Serbia, Bosnia and Serbia, but also Armenia and Azerbaijan (as they tend to screw each other). Making a pot of 6 countries has often went for someone's favour, obviously this year in Semi 1 with the Balkan and ex-Soviet friends.

 

[GRE]

I am really curius to see what is going to happen with Eastern block.
Will it be another 2013? (6/6, 16 countries in the Semifinal)
Russia,Georgia and Estonia have good and appealing songs,that will qualify easily.
And then there is Armenia, Moldova and Belarus with bad songs.
Armenia will get votes from all the rest ex-ussr countries + Greece,Netherlands,Belgium,France. (Sure qualifier)
Moldova will get votes from all the rest ex-ussr countries +Romania,Spain. (Posible qualifier)
And Belarus,has a good draw,after the ballad of Hungary.With support of televoting + east countries, can also qualify.

 

[aardvark]

Is it possible that could all fail to qualify from this semi?
All 4 of them are not as strong as they have been in previous years and will struggle.

has a good place almost at the end of the semi, but the song seems to get lost between the more upbeat and seemingly more popular songs from Albania and Georgia.
has the advantage of strong vocals, but the song itself is dated and oldfashioned. It could benefit from the slot between Macedonia and Hungary, though.
has a disadvantage being so early in the semi, and following more likely qualifiers Armenia and Belgium, and right before Finland which is bound to get more attention.
has the advantage of being right after the break, but is that enough to make this forgettable song stand out? And being followed by fan favorite Estonia surely doesn't help.

 

[Carrie]

is unstoppable - haters move over, here comes Eduard.

 

[Terence]

Tough one to call.

are pretty much guaranteed.
(jury-sucked) (probably the same as Hungary) should be there too.
could be this year's shock failure, but I doubt it in such a weak semifinal so it should make it at least by a whisker, helped by diaspora and juries.

The other two songs... (just because it's different) and (really not sure here)

is maybe too alternative to get through, will get lost as will and
could be in trouble for the first time in ages, and is probably too different to please the juries.

 

[GermanBango]

Did another prediction with scorewiz yesterday - the results are based on several polls, voting patterns, odds and 350 youtube-rankings (took me almost 3 hours):

01. 174
02. 172
03. 141
04. 135
05. 100
06. 84
07. 80
08. 61
09. 55
10. 51

11. FYR Macedonia 24
12. Serbia 23
13. Hungary 17
14. Moldova 17
15. Denmark 14
16. Finland 12

If anyone is interested, I can give you the link to the full voting.

 

[Arv]

Did another prediction with scorewiz yesterday - the results are based on several polls, voting patterns, odds and 350 youtube-rankings (took me almost 3 hours):

01. 174
02. 172
03. 141
04. 135
05. 100
06. 84
07. 80
08. 61
09. 55
10. 51

11. FYR Macedonia 24
12. Serbia 23
13. Hungary 17
14. Moldova 17
15. Denmark 14
16. Finland 12

If anyone is interested, I can give you the link to the full voting.

Send me that link