The semi-final allocation draw

[94ayd]

Great hosts, already love them! Also a great draw for , it's the first time since 2009 that we're in the 1st semi-final and the first time we're performing in the 1st half, so I'm excited. Semi 1 seems to be the semi of the underdogs, as I only see & qualifying 100% and & have high chances but not sure qualifiers. On the other hand semi 2 is gonna be a bloodbath with 9 standard qualifiers (, , , , , , , & ) and also 3 that usually do really well (, & ). I can smell a non-qualification for one of , & 100%.

 

[Realest]

usually do really well ( ).

qualified Twice in the last 9 Years.

 

[blue00eyes]

2nd semi looks much more competitive.

 

[JonnyWest]

That semi 2 is so strong! At least one of the "big" countries will fail I guess.

Semi 1 has many underdogs and not many favorites here (based on the name of the country) so more chances to them to qualify

 

[A-lister]

Semi 2 is definitely the one to look out for in terms of competition, is lucky to have and there aswell as , , , and that tend to be quite "generous" towards us.
has (diaspora), (political), (diaspora), (political), (diaspora), (political), (diaspora)

 

[ParadiseES]

I'm surprised you miss Russia in the "unlucky" group (if Russia can ever be unlucky).
Russia has its biggest friends (Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan) in the other semifinal, while it got the "enemy neighbours" from its pot (Georgia, Ukraine) in its semifinal + Moldova, which isn't the most reliable friend + only one Baltic state while the other two are in Semi 1.
I can easily see Russia failing if they send a bad song.

Anyway, I see the two semifinals pretty balanced. While SF 2 looks like it has more of the most typical qualifiers (not a huge difference though), SF1 has one more participant (so it's a bit more difficult to qualify).

 

[A-lister]

Final allocation:

If doesn't up its game for this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see us miss out on the final - SF2 is essentially "Likely Qualifiers: The Semifinal". Russia, Serbia, Romania, Australia, Norway, Sweden, Hungary, Poland & Ukraine makes up nine, and then you've got those like Denmark/Moldova/The Netherlands/Malta and more who are 50/50s... it's going to be competitive.

On the contrary, SF1 could then allow some extra space for countries that usually struggle - Czech Republic, Macedonia, Croatia, Switzerland etc. - to make it through if they're decent.

As a side note: Based on what I saw of the stream, I'm liking the hosts! They seem natural, engaging and not cheesy, and that's rare for Eurovision hosts in a lot of years. It's no Mans & Petra so far, but they could make for a great year of hosting if they're given a good script.

You always have the juries that will most likely boost you again so I wouldn't worry... but we'll see

I agree about the hosts, they seem alright... no Måns/Petra but that's a hard one to compete with... but they seem better than most hosts we had for the past decade atleast (or even for the past two decades!).

 

[A-lister]

I'm surprised you miss Russia in the "unlucky" group (if Russia can ever be unlucky).
Russia has its biggest friends (Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan) in the other semifinal, while it got the "enemy neighbours" from its pot (Georgia, Ukraine) in its semifinal + Moldova, which isn't the most reliable friend + only one Baltic state while the other two are in Semi 1.
I can easily see Russia failing if they send a bad song.

As I mentioned in my previous post, Russia has lots of diaspora to count on in the so called "enemy neighbors" (Ukraine, Georgia) + Moldova and Latvia, and also a healthy bunch of political allies (Serbia, Hungary, Montenegro, Italy)... so I wouldn't worry about them...

 

[Realest]

Semi 2 is definitely the one to look out for in terms of competition, is lucky to have and there aswell as , , , and that tend to be quite "generous" towards us.
has (diaspora), (political), (diaspora), (political), (diaspora), (political), (diaspora)

I cant see anything Political between Hungary and Russia. The Twins were 5th with the hungarian Juries and 9th with the Televoter which seems like an objective Voting. Also Montenegros Jury had Russia on 5th Place (Both in the Semi btw). Also Polina was 5th with Hungarys Jury and 6th with the Televoters and Montenegros Televoter had Polina on 4th Place (this Time in the Final). Id rather Say these Countries are Neutral. But Germany has a big russian Diaspora. And Italy a Medium-Diaspora, but Moldova, Romania, Ukraine, San Marino and Poland have bigger Diasporas there so Russia will probably get 4-5 Points from Italy. But on the other Side, Russia has (probably) Anti-Diaspora in the Ukrainian and Georgian Jury.

 

[A-lister]

I cant see anything Political between Hungary and Russia. The Twins were 5th with the hungarian Juries and 9th with the Televoter which seems like an objective Voting. Also Montenegros Jury had Russia on 5th Place (Both in the Semi btw). Also Polina was 5th with Hungarys Jury and 6th with the Televoters and Montenegros Televoter had Polina on 4th Place (this Time in the Final). Id rather Say these Countries are Neutral. But Germany has a big russian Diaspora. And Italy a Medium-Diaspora, but Moldova, Romania, Ukraine, San Marino and Poland have bigger Diasporas there so Russia will probably get 4-5 Points from Italy. But on the other Side, Russia has (probably) Anti-Diaspora in the Ukrainian and Georgian Jury.

Are you referring to semis or final with The Twins? I'm confused...

 

[SaladBreak]

Just watched parts of the video, great hosts!

 

[A-lister]

Semi 1 is quite unpredictable, sure and will award eachother (regardless if the entries will be good or not), can rely on some diaspora help from , , , and I guess also , also , , and could get some diaspora push from the while also has , but other than that this semi is pretty much open field and whoever send the best entries will probably qualify (atleast on paper).

 

[FoxOfShadows]

Semi 1 is quite unpredictable, sure and will award eachother (regardless if the entries will be good or not), can rely on some diaspora help from , , , and I guess also , also , , and could get some diaspora push from the while also has , but other than that this semi is pretty much open field and whoever send the best entries will probably qualify (atleast on paper).

I think Semi 1 may be one of the most open semis we've ever had. There's no big hitters here except and but I wouldn't be surprised if either of them failed to qualify without , and . look like safe qualifiers but if their song's not up to scratch then I can see them failing. And finally, while both and will give eachother high points, we saw the same thing back in 2016 and back then failed to qualify and barely made it through.

It could be a good year for , , and As long as they send songs which are good enough to qualify then I can see them all breaking non-qualifying streaks (or in case getting there best ever result)

 

[A-lister]

I think Semi 1 may be one of the most open semis we've ever had. There's no big hitters here except and but I wouldn't be surprised if either of them failed to qualify without , and . look like safe qualifiers but if their song's not up to scratch then I can see them failing. And finally, while both and will give eachother high points, we saw the same thing back in 2016 and back then failed to qualify and barely made it through.

It could be a good year for , , and As long as they send songs which are good enough to qualify then I can see them all breaking non-qualifying streaks (or in case getting there best ever result)

Second that, I forgot to mention diaspora of course, but yeah, other than some random diaspora and / exchange, this semi is for sure open and countries that tend to struggle could finally make it, if they have good enough entries that is (unfortunately for them they tend to have weak entries, so it's not as if their failures are based only on some unfair voting).

 

[popavapeur]

SF1

and are sure qualifiers if we look at their recent entries
and begin with points already
, and are lucky imho they have all the chances to get through, specially Iceland who failed recently.
I don't know about , it's the flemish broadcaster so they could be either qualifying or not. (Laura and Axel 50/50)
I guess is lucky too, actually SF1 will help a country that usually don't get through the semi final .

SF2

is obviously a bloodbath and if a "weaker" country pull a , or if they step up their games it's gonna be hard, even for the likely qualifiers to go to the final (except and if they don't send Yulia). really has to send a Calm after the storm bis, if not they're definitely out.

 

[Realest]

Are you referring to semis or final with The Twins? I'm confused...

Yes, 2014 I meant the Semi since Russia Montenegro and Hungary were in the Same. 2015 I meant the Final. As I said I dont see there any political Relationship between these 2 Countries and Hungary. For me they are neutral. I think putting The Twins on 5/15 Place dont seem political for me.

 

[A-lister]

Yes, 2014 I meant the Semi since Russia Montenegro and Hungary were in the Same. 2015 I meant the Final. As I said I dont see there any political Relationship between these 2 Countries and Hungary. For me they are neutral. I think putting The Twins on 5/15 Place dont seem political for me.

The political landscape changed quite alot though, I wouldn't underestimate "political allies" in ESC unfortunately.

 

[Realest]

Semi 1 is quite unpredictable, sure and will award eachother (regardless if the entries will be good or not), can rely on some diaspora help from , , , and I guess also , also , , and could get some diaspora push from the while also has , but other than that this semi is pretty much open field and whoever send the best entries will probably qualify (atleast on paper).

Since when has Albania Diaspora in UK? I only checked out that Enada was 15/18 in the Semi 2016 and Elhaida was 15/26 in the Final 2015...
But Still, Albania is a big Winner in this Semi.
Greece and Bulgaria also.
Greece has huge Diaspora in Cyprus, Big Diaspora in Albania, Bulgaria, Armenia, United Kingdom, Belgium and Small Diasporas in Fyrom and Switzerland.
Bulgaria has United Kingdom, Spain, Fyrom, Greece and Cyprus.
Also Armenia has Diaspora in Greece, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Belgium and Bulgaria.
And Cyprus has Diaspora/Friendship in/with Greece, Bulgaria, UK and Armenia.

 

[Realest]

The political landscape changed quite alot though, I wouldn't underestimate "political allies" in ESC unfortunately.

Well, Montenegro and Hungary have never given Topmarks to Russia. Dima Bilan and Sergey might have got high Points but those have more to do with their Topfavorite-Status.

 

[A-lister]

Well, Montenegro and Hungary have never given Topmarks to Russia. Dima Bilan and Sergey might have got high Points but those have more to do with their Topfavorite-Status.

Dima is way before Europe got divided the way it is now... we'll see but all I'm saying is I wouldn't underestimate it.