Portugal PORTUGAL 2024 - iolanda - Grito

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[rasmuslights]

Unfortunately, it's stupid that they have abolished the jury in the semi-finals. I understand the reason, but isn't the televoting also completely 'biased' in some countries?

Unfortunately, this factor means that some songs might have difficulties in qualifying (so, looking at Portugal, we have a serious problem).

It's a terrible draw; we have 1/4 of our most potential voters (I wouldn't include Italy in this list at all). Now, Switzerland, France, and Luxembourg have an interested diaspora that votes for Portugal regardless of the music (some pathoitarianism here). Spain is more uncertain lately, I think due to the proximity, for a person from the border, it's easy to vote, we have some diaspora and neighbor voting, after all, it's a safe voter, but less clear.

And then it seems to me that we are in the stronger semi-final, but it's a bit unfair because we still haven't met half of the songs and there are countries that might send literally any type/genre of music.

With this, Iolanda still seems to me a possible qualifier, but just borderline and she would need to have a good staging and a good allocation position.

Overall, it seems that we have an entry with some potential but that can also be a complete disaster. João, if he does something 'out of the box', something surprising, he might catch a percentage of the most "alternative Eurovision" vote. After all, rock has achieved several very positive results in the televote, could Portuguese progressive rock, with good staging, be well received? Without seeing the performances, it's not possible to say much for now.

We have to have a very efficient presentation in May, with that, everything will be possible, despite an unfavorable draw (this is undeniable)

I agree I hate how people pretend that the televote isn't biased when it's way more biased than the jury.

For example, Albania this year will almost definitely qualify since they have Greece, the rest of the world (Kosovo), Austria, Italy and Switzerland voting in the semi - this is around 50 points on lock! Now how many points would Portugal get if they sent the same song? Probably around 15, probably not even that. When it comes to jury, they're only biased when it comes to countries like Cyprus/Greece (and even that wasn't the case last year) or Moldova/Romania.

idk, how people don't find this problematic but find the juries problematic when they're clearly way less biased.

 

[goncalovieira]

The RTP team needs to take some money for the staging and preparation for the big event.
Stop that elitist attitude about stagings and props. Portugal is just about to change government and RTP will be affected for sure. This might be their last approach.

 

[Decayingbooks]

The RTP team needs to take some money for the staging and preparation for the big event.
Stop that elitist attitude about stagings and props. Portugal is just about to change government and RTP will be affected for sure. This might be their last approach.

Something that people seem unware is that Portugal has no time to revamp the staging, I think this year we will have 1 week day after the final to submit all the info on how the the song will be staged to the EBU.
The artists competing on Festival da Canção should be thinking already how they will stage it on Eurovision and RTP should move the nf into an auditorium to try the first draft in an actually stage with live audience, the stage in the studio has become better in the last years, but still is small and even if it more expensive to rent an auditorium for a month, selling tickes and maybe even getting a couple of sponsors could make it cost the same.
Also one thing I don't understand is why RTP cares so much about JESC, they can't monetise the contest through the phone calls and it isn't a viable way to promote the portuguese music industry/culture like you can in ESC, why not just withdraw from JESC and use that budget to improve the nf and make the portuguese representative shine brighter on Eurovision? I honestly don't understand.

 

[mercachita]

Something that people seem unware is that Portugal has no time to revamp the staging, I think this year we will have 1 week day after the final to submit all the info on how the the song will be staged to the EBU.
The artists competing on Festival da Canção should be thinking already how they will stage it on Eurovision and RTP should move the nf into an auditorium to try the first draft in an actually stage with live audience, the stage in the studio has become better in the last years, but still is small and even if it more expensive to rent an auditorium for a month, selling tickes and maybe even getting a couple of sponsors could make it cost the same.
Also one thing I don't understand is why RTP cares so much about JESC, they can't monetise the contest through the phone calls and it isn't a viable way to promote the portuguese music industry/culture like you can in ESC, why not just withdraw from JESC and use that budget to improve the nf and make the portuguese representative shine brighter on Eurovision? I honestly don't understand.

Yes, exactly! I asked myself that question for the past two years. Having the studio during the pandemic made sense, but after what RTP was trying to do with FdC until 2020, I don't understand why they gave up presenting the national final in other cities. At the same time, they are participating in JESC, even though it's something that Portuguese people don't care that much.

I don't know; they could start trying to secure sponsors and collaborate with TV production companies. It doesn't seem that difficult to me, but it appears they are somewhat giving up on the improvements made in the past years. It feels like they are content with things that, as a viewer, seem lazy and careless.

 

[jatojo]

I agree I hate how people pretend that the televote isn't biased when it's way more biased than the jury.

For example, Albania this year will almost definitely qualify since they have Greece, the rest of the world (Kosovo), Austria, Italy and Switzerland voting in the semi - this is around 50 points on lock! Now how many points would Portugal get if they sent the same song? Probably around 15, probably not even that. When it comes to jury, they're only biased when it comes to countries like Cyprus/Greece (and even that wasn't the case last year) or Moldova/Romania.

idk, how people don't find this problematic but find the juries problematic when they're clearly way less biased.

Good point. When ESC fans adore the televote, it may be because they themselves have a "cosmopolitan" approach - they forget that many viewers don't have that.

In some countries Eurovision had its low point when the results were 100% televote during the mid 00's. Many had the feeling that the increasing number of Eastern European countries handed points to each other and thus stole the show. I think the criticism was more or less justified. Personally, I want to keep the jury, possibly at a 33% influence rate.

Having said that, you could argue that the televote bias is a bit easier to live with, simply because it's "what people think", while a jury bias is more suspicious and could be manipulated.

 

[rasmuslights]

Good point. When ESC fans adore the televote, it may be because they themselves have a "cosmopolitan" approach - they forget that many viewers don't have that.

In some countries Eurovision had its low point when the results were 100% televote during the mid 00's. Many had the feeling that the increasing number of Eastern European countries handed points to each other and thus stole the show. I think the criticism was more or less justified. Personally, I want to keep the jury, possibly at a 33% influence rate.

Having said that, you could argue that the televote bias is a bit easier to live with, simply because it's "what people think", while a jury bias is more suspicious and could be manipulated.

True. But what people think argument would be valid if the televote numbers were massive but they're not and therefore easily manipulated and influenced by diaspora.

Do you think the Swiss people thought Albania's performance last year was the best when 15 other countries put it in the bottom 3?

Do you think Italian, French and Portuguese people thought Moldova's song last year was among top 3 or was it just diaspora's opinion?

Do you think the Brits last year thought Lithuania was the best entry?

I could go on and on.

And it's not a problem when a country has let's say 2 other countries to rely on. But when it comes countries like Lithuania, Poland , Albania, and Moldova that have 4 countries at minimum to rely on it's a problem. ESPECIALLY in a semi.

Saying it's people's opinion is very manipulative since it's not in a lot of cases. And this ofc won't affect the ones that are in the top anyway. But Latvia could qualify last year if it wasn't for the Serbian diaspora. And the juries would've made sure of it.

 

[jatojo]

I could go on and on.

You're probably right. At the end of the day, one would have to get the stats from numerous years to see if the diasporas influence the results more than what their numbers in each country should justify. We should also acknowledge (which of course you know) that many neighbour votes have to do with similarities in culture and thus taste - it's not all about bias country-to-country.

 

[Mainshow]

Televoting isn't "less-biased" than jury voting but jury voting isn't superior or more neutral or balanced than televoting, either

Of course, diaspora and neighbouring votes exist but as a fan, I think that these aspects are "more tolerable" than juries DOWNVOTING songs based on politics or FAVORING songs because of corruption, local songwriters/producers being involved. Also, unlike televoting, juries have to vote for ALL SONGS and it has been shown that they aren't able to do so without looking at betting odds or voting upside down or forgetting half of the entries they've heard.
Why should 5 people not being capable of ranking all songs correctly have the same power as thousands of people supporting a song or two (even IF it's their favourite entry and the entry from the country they feel close to).

Also, just a single qualifier would have been different in recent years per semi if the EBU had introduced the only televoting semi earlier and again, would have qualified in a televoting semi in 2023, 2022, 2021 as well - juries prevented Portugal from qualifying in 2014 as well.

Thus, not having juries involved isn't a disadvantage for at all.

 

[Decayingbooks]

 

[Decayingbooks]

Iolanda performing "Cura" on tv a couple of days ago:

 

[Looren]

Late to the party but let's go :

1. NOBLE
2. Nena
3. FILIPA
4. Rita Onofre
5. Rita Rocha
6. Iolanda
7. Mila Dores
8. LEFT.
9. Huca

NOBLE - Memory (5/10) @Looren's incoming favourite

Amazing guess man xD

 

[Decayingbooks]

The running order is out:

 

[0scar]

Let's go Grito!!!

 

[b4ld3r]

If João Borsch manages to win by some miracle, I'm pretty sure his song will be my favourite this year. Grito is also really, really good.

 

[Laepo1]

Iolanda performing "Cura" on tv a couple of days ago:

I wish it would have been performed live. But still, she's campaigning!

 

[Decayingbooks]

If anyone is curious how "Grito" was produced, Iolanda and Luar published a video detailing the process, it is in portuguese, but the auto-captions in english kinda work.

 

[Decayingbooks]

The stage of Festival da Canção 2024:

 

[Loindici]

The stage of Festival da Canção 2024:

Nice, it's like a mix of new and old.

 

[Decayingbooks]

The rehearsal for semi 1 started today, there's no snippets yet but they shared the info that Left. brought furniture(?).
Hopefully tomorrow they will share something, I'm dying to see how Borsch staged his song.

 

[Decayingbooks]

The numbers are way lower than last year, but here is the top 5 most viewed/listened songs of semi 1:

Top5 on youtube

#1 Iolanda - Grito - 144k
#2 Bispo - A Minha Casa - 101k
#3 João Borsch - ... Pelas Costuras - 98k
#4 Rita Rocha - Pontos Finais - 84k
#5 Noble - Memory - 68k

Top5 on Spotify

#1 Iolanda - Grito - 56k
#2 João Borsch - ... Pelas Costuras - 52k
#3 Bispo - A Minha Casa - 41k
#4 Rita Rocha - Pontos Finais - 34k
#5 Nena - Teorias da Conspiração 28k

When the songs came out for me Iolanda was the "one" and the numbers tells me that she will very likely win the televote and unless the staging make no sense, and I mean St Pedro levels of "what were they thinking?!", I think it's safe to say that she is winning the nf.
João Borsch is the only other singer that I can see winning the nf, but he needs to elevate the song through the staging and his charisma.

Edit: I forgot to mention the engagement on youtube, comments and likes have proven as a good way to measure who will the public vote on, but unlike what hapenned in 2021 and 2022 the most viewed is also the one with more engagement, Iolanda (3.1 likes / 770 comments), the second one is Borsch (2.3 likes / 528 comments), the rest are kinda at the same level.