NSC 57 in Horehronieland | SEMI 2 | DL: 11.09 21h

[SpZ]

Sean, I'm not sure if you know how odds work in real. Odd X means that you get X times more than you bet, if the betted case happens. It means odds for qualification should vary from 1,2 for favourites to about 5 for outsiders. In semi predictions above, we can see them varying from 5 to 150.

To sum up: some people predict winner, others predict qualifiers, we get winner odds and everyoby claim they're for qualification... Let me facepalm it

I know what you are feeling.. i have said several times that the numbers are way away. (they are usually even fishy if it would be predicting a winner) and i disagree with the 1,2 to 5... it should start around 1,05 and end at around 50ish (for songs which are pretty much doomed) The one time i did odds around 20 editions ago I used the data i got from other people to estimate a country's chance of qualification in %s (taking into account that all the % would add up to 1100 as there are 11 qualifiers)I also did some data working so that a high from person who said it to only 2 songs would mean more than a high from person who said it 15 times. And finally i did the 100/% of qualification to get odds and somewhat rounded them. So a song which had 95% chance to qualify got an odd of 100/95=1,05 while a song with only 2% got 100/2=50. However i only made odds once and it seems that other people didnt want to use so complex system which created the odds we have now which are pretty unrealistic. But now i have started to look at them as not odds, but some sort of general sucess predictor.

I should also point out that there is a what are we predicting? conflict in the final too. Some people think we are predicting the likelihood of winning and some think we are predicting the placement of the song. Which are totally different things.

 

[Schlagerman1]

I suggest that it is time to change the one who is responseble for the Odds then.
I don't see the point in doing it when other people doesn't understand + I don't have the time or the power to put my soul in it anymore.
You are right that it should be done in the right way, but even if I try to understand how the odds system works for real, I don't get it.
I was doing this just to have some extra touch for the contest, but for each edition I've got more and more tired of it, so I should really stop now while I think it is fun.
The one that can take over it and will do it in a proper way, can do it. I can do the ones for the final and possibly one every now and then, but I don't see the point in doing it anymore.

 

[Bojan]

I was doing this just to have some extra touch for the contest, but for each edition I've got more and more tired of it, so I should really stop now while I think it is fun.

and thank you for doing them!!!
it's not like we are REALLY betting here so they must be done in the "right" way guys...

 

[Jukica]

and thank you for doing them!!!
it's not like we are REALLY betting here so they must be done in the "right" way guys...

+1 xgood

And btw, I know making the odds is not easy (because I did them few times while Adam was away and it took me time to make them more realistic) and I think Adam is doing a good job with making the odds ... so I don't wanna his effort for all these odds and editions to be futile :/

Anyway, I don't think odds should be done in complicated way because, as Adam said, it was done just to have some extra touch for the contest ... so I think Adam's method is good enough

 

[Scorpion]

I suggest that it is time to change the one who is responseble for the Odds then.
I don't see the point in doing it when other people doesn't understand + I don't have the time or the power to put my soul in it anymore.
You are right that it should be done in the right way, but even if I try to understand how the odds system works for real, I don't get it.
I was doing this just to have some extra touch for the contest, but for each edition I've got more and more tired of it, so I should really stop now while I think it is fun.
The one that can take over it and will do it in a proper way, can do it. I can do the ones for the final and possibly one every now and then, but I don't see the point in doing it anymore.

I really think you are doing a great job!

 

[Milos-BC]

I suggest that it is time to change the one who is responseble for the Odds then.
I don't see the point in doing it when other people doesn't understand + I don't have the time or the power to put my soul in it anymore.
You are right that it should be done in the right way, but even if I try to understand how the odds system works for real, I don't get it.
I was doing this just to have some extra touch for the contest, but for each edition I've got more and more tired of it, so I should really stop now while I think it is fun.
The one that can take over it and will do it in a proper way, can do it. I can do the ones for the final and possibly one every now and then, but I don't see the point in doing it anymore.

You are doing a great job, and it IS appreciated (at least from my perspective)

Sometimes people forget that this is just fun, we are free to cross the lines, but still some limits must be set.

Don't take it too seriously.

 

[Canuck]

You are doing a great job, and it IS appreciated (at least from my perspective)

Sometimes people forget that this is just fun, we are free to cross the lines, but still some limits must be set.

Don't take it too seriously.

I love the odds, I think its fun to see where people think the vote is going to go!

 

[strajker]

OOPS i missed the thread :$ i thought this is NSC Chat Box

And Odds are great! You're doing a great job

 

[Sean]

Ah yeah, very relevant to semi 2

 

[strajker]

semi2 results