I don't think this will win Eurovision. Top 5 at most. He'll do well with the juries for sure but I don't think the televoters will be as keen on this. If I remember correctly he only came 7th with the televoters in Sanremo?
As an italian, I hope he can win, but not saying he is going to win. There are so many variables which can determine a win or not.
Look at the last year, nobody was thinking that very generic ESC style songs ( AUstria and Germany ) could reach top 2 with the juries.
It dependes what he0s going to bring on stage and the way to be faster receptive by the public.
Last year Ermal and Fabrizio did it perfectly ( i remember all the critics considering the writtings very cheesy, like a cheap powerpoint ).
On the other hand, France did the contrary. The "famous" ESC fan move hand didn't help them, even though all in the arena were doing it.
Italy and France last year had very good songs, for me worthy of top 5, but fore some unknown variables they reached different placings.
I think that the juries are the most unpredicable variables and i suppose, if John Lundwik wins, this year jury will go again with Sweden.